Analysis of the impact of Trump's proposed global tariff increase to 15% on the crypto market

Execution Summary

Trump signed an executive order based on Section 122 of the Trade Act, temporarily raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, effective for a maximum of 150 days (subject to congressional approval for extension). This move sparked political litigation and discussions about market uncertainty, but the crypto market reacted mildly: BTC, ETH, and SOL only saw slight declines of 2-5% over the past week. Technical indicators show oversold conditions but no panic, on-chain valuations are within a fair range, and derivative leverage risk is neutral. The event has not triggered a "new shift" in the crypto market ; short-term volatility may increase but there is no systemic risk, and the market maintains a neutral to cautious stance. CoinGecko X

Event details and verification

Key facts about the tariff increase :

• Legal Basis : Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose temporary tariffs of up to 15% when there is a serious imbalance in international payments.
• Scope of implementation : Almost all countries worldwide, effective February 24, 2026.
• Validity : Maximum 150 days (approximately 5 months), subject to congressional approval for extension.
• Political reaction : Democrats filed a lawsuit, the governor of Illinois is seeking $8.7 billion in damages ($1,700 per household), and the Supreme Court previously ruled that the president's tariff powers are limited .

Data verification : The information sources include Polymarket's prediction market (19% probability of companies receiving tax refunds), multiple highly interactive Twitter posts (up to 1.38 million views), and are consistent with news platform reports, confirming the event's authenticity. X

Cryptocurrency market price reaction (February 15 to February 22, 2026 UTC)

Prices declined slightly but did not break key support levels, with the drop being far less severe than the typical safe-haven reaction of traditional risk assets (such as a 1-2% drop in US stock index futures during the same period). CoinGecko CoinGecko CoinGecko

Multi-dimensional market analysis

Technical Indicator Analysis (TAAPI)

BTC multi-timeframe signals :

• 1-hour chart : RSI 47.9 (neutral), MACD histogram -40.7 (weak momentum), price below EMA20 ($68,058) → Short-term consolidation.
• 4-hour chart : RSI 51.7 (neutral), MACD histogram +74.7 (momentum strengthening) → Mid-term rebound in the making.
• Daily chart : RSI 37.3 (oversold zone), ADX 57.4 (strong trend), price below SMA20 ($68,786) → Bearish structure continues, but the probability of an oversold rebound increases.

ETH is showing weakness : the daily RSI is 34.9 (oversold), and the price is below the EMA20 ($2,109), indicating a strong correlation with BTC in terms of technical indicators.

Key thresholds : RSI < 30 is an overbought rebound signal, which has not yet been reached; a break above BTC $68,000 (SMA20) would confirm a short-term reversal.

CryptoQuant, an on-chain valuation metric

BTC on-chain health :

ETH data limitations : On-chain metrics are incomplete, but derivatives and price correlations show a near-neutral state. The absence of extreme on-chain signals indicates stable holder confidence and no panic due to macroeconomic events.

Derivatives Market Risks Coinglass

Leverage and liquidation risks :

The derivatives market shows that leverage risk is manageable (funding rate < 0.25% threshold) and there is no pressure for large-scale liquidation, but high open interest suggests that tariff news may amplify short-term volatility.

Market sentiment and news impact

Social media sentiment (X platform) :

• Political polarization prevails : Trump supporters emphasize record-high tariff revenue ($12.1 billion), while opponents criticize it for "making goods more expensive," and crypto-related discussions account for less than 10% .
• Low relevance to crypto : A search for "(crypto OR Bitcoin) Trump tariffs" yields only 19 tweets, with the highest engagement reaching only 75 views, indicating a disconnect between the issues.
• Predicted market signals : Low betting volume on Polymarket-related events (19% probability of corporate tax refunds), no panic pricing X observed.

News coverage : Mainstream crypto media (Odaily, Panewslab) did not give it much coverage, focusing instead on the robotics sector and Polymarket strategies, reflecting the marginalization of the event's impact on crypto.

Potential Risks and Opportunities Assessment

Downside risks

1. Increased macroeconomic correlation : If tariffs trigger a sharp correction in US stocks (S&P 500 futures are sensitive), cryptocurrencies may follow risk assets downwards.
2. Strengthening US Dollar Pressure : Tariffs Push Up Dollar Index, Creating Headwinds for Crypto
3. Uncertainty surrounding the timeframe : If Congress extends tariffs after 150 days, a prolonged trade war could dampen risk appetite.

Upside opportunities

1. Safe-haven narrative buffer : As a non-sovereign asset, crypto may attract capital inflows if traditional markets experience turmoil (similar to the logic behind gold).
2. Technical oversold bounce : BTC/ETH daily RSI is oversold; historically, the probability of a bounce at similar levels is over 60%.
3. The event has been digested : the price has been partially priced in, and a rebound may occur after actual implementation due to the "sell the expectation, buy the fact" mentality.

Key monitoring points :

• Will the US stock volatility index (VIX) break through 25?
• Can the US Dollar Index (DXY) hold above 105?
• Can BTC hold the $65,000 support level (volume-weighted average price)?

Conclusion: Will this trigger a "new landscape"?

No. Trump's tariff increase to 15% did not trigger a structural shift in the crypto market for the following reasons:

1. The market reaction was mild : a weekly decline of 2-5% is normal fluctuation and far from reaching the threshold of a "turning point" (such as the 50% drop in March 2020).
2. No panic on-chain : MVRV 1.24 and NUPL 0.19 show stable holders and no capitulation-style sell-offs.
3. Derivatives Balance : Neutral funding rates, low liquidation amounts, and no excessive leverage.
4. Emotional isolation : Social discussions are primarily political, with low levels of encrypted engagement.
5. Technical support : Oversold condition + key support level held, buffering macroeconomic shocks.

Short-term outlook : Events may amplify intraday volatility, but the core drivers of the crypto market remain ETF flows, Fed policy, and technical cycles. If BTC breaks through $68,000 (SMA20 resistance), there is a high probability of an oversold rebound; if it falls below $65,000, it may test the $60,000 support.

Data Quality Notes : All data is current as of 09:03 UTC on February 22, 2026, and sources include CoinGecko (price), CryptoQuant (on-chain), TAAPI (technology), Coinglass (derivatives), and X (sentiment), with cross-platform consistency verified. Limitations: On-chain indicators for ETH are incomplete; macroeconomic impacts require continuous monitoring of US stock/USD market reactions.

Disclaimer : This report is based on a comprehensive analysis of publicly available data and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky; please make your decisions carefully.