Bitcoin March Rebound Analysis: Breaking 75k, Bull Market Rhythm Emerging, but Geopolitical Risks Need Attention

Bitcoin's latest price at 01:19 UTC on March 17, 2026 was approximately $75,180 , successfully breaking through the $75,000 mark, rebounding by over $11,500 (an increase of approximately 18.2%) from its March low of $63,176.9. Coinglass's rally, starting at $65,878.8 on March 1st, reached a high of $74,861.5 within the month, showing an eight-day winning streak,带动ETH (+12.5%, over $2,300) and SOL (+13%), among other major cryptocurrencies, to follow suit. The market's Fear & Greed Index rose to 27, with a 7-day trend recovery. On-chain indicators show selling pressure decreasing to a cyclical low, NUPL showing optimistic signals, and ETFs experiencing net inflows of $2.119 billion for three consecutive weeks, coupled with whale buy the dips, suggesting a short-term bull market has returned. However, geopolitical factors (such as the Strait of Hormuz) and the Fed's decision remain key variables, and it remains to be seen whether the price can hold above the $78k resistance level.

Data is current as of 01:19 UTC on March 17, 2026. All prices/indicators are based on the latest snapshot of the day. The analysis focuses on the event window in March (March 1 to March 17).

Price trend: Eight consecutive days of gains confirm rebound channel

In March, BTC started from a low of $63,176.9 at the beginning of the month (March 1st), experienced a brief pullback, and then began to rise from $66,036.2 on March 9th, closing at $74,858.1 on March 17th, with a high of $74,861.5. The cumulative increase for the month was 13.6% (from the opening price), with daily volatility controlled within 3-5%, and active trading without significant volume spikes, indicating an orderly advance by the bulls. (CoinGecko)

Key Interpretation : The price rebounded to $8831.9 (+13.4%) from the March 9th low, marking eight consecutive days of gains (March 9th to March 16th), a rare occurrence. Historically, similar consecutive green candle often signal bottom confirmation (such as the mid-bear market in 2023). Currently, it has risen above the psychological level of 70k, and a MACD golden cross is emerging, but a break above 78k (recent resistance) is needed to confirm a new channel. Compared to the February low of $64606.4 (Fear & Greed 6), March has already absorbed some of the downward pressure.

Market Sentiment: From Extreme Fear to Accumulated Optimism

The Fear & Greed Index has risen from a February low of 6 (Extreme Fear) to 27 (Fear) , with a 7-day trend of increasing, moving away from the extreme fear zone and into the edge of neutral. The Coinglass CryptoQuant indicator shows MVRV 1.376 (Fair) , NUPL 0.2735 (Optimism) , and NVT 21.6 (Undervalued) , with the selling pressure ratio dropping to 1/6 of the cycle average. The 180-day moving average has fallen from 3210 to 1913, entering an accumulation phase.

Why it's important : On-chain selling pressure is low (below the 2019/2022 bear market levels), but the price has already reached the 67-72k range, indicating a structural divergence—early high-level sellers have liquidated their positions, and the remaining holders are holding on. Combined with the bullish crossover of US10Y x CN10Y (a historical pre-bull market signal with gains of 350-8700%), the short-term outlook is optimistic, but a bull market trap should be anticipated (if it falls below 78k).

Core drivers: Macroeconomic easing + capital inflows + whale buy the dips

1. Macroeconomic positives : Trump declared the war with Iran essentially over, oil prices fell below $90/barrel (negatively correlated with BTC), the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, and the Fed's March 19th decision has a 99.1% probability of remaining unchanged (Polymarket). Morgan Stanley predicts a 25bp rate cut in June/September, and liquidity expectations are improving. Odaily

2. ETF structural buying : BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of $2.119 billion for the third consecutive week (including $767 million in the five days last week, the first time since 2026), while ETH ETFs saw $265 million . A BlackRock executive stated that 90% of investors "buy on dips." (Odaily)

3. On-chain whale activity : Arkham monitored whale buying 131.3 million ETH, Lookonchain tracked multiple addresses buy the dips ETH at the bottom (average price $2068-$2248), and addresses that had been dormant for June reappeared. Matrixport stated that the probability of a rebound has increased after the continuous decline in May. Odaily

Fund Flow Story : This is not a short-term technical adjustment, but rather a bottom confirmation + liquidity inflow. 169 of the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization green candle, and the fear index is 39 (neutral).

Risk Assessment and Outlook

Outlook : A 70% probability of a short-term bull market resurgence , targeting $78-100k (August, supported by macroeconomic models), but this requires the Fed to remain on hold and the Straits Times to reopen. Base scenario: Hold steady at $72k, a 15% monthly increase; Bear scenario: Oil prices surge and fall below $70k. Currently at $75k, neutral; observe the Fed's and on-chain selling pressure on March 19th.

Action Perspective : Aggressive traders can add to their positions at 70-72k (RSI neutral), while conservative traders should wait for confirmation at 78k. The data is largely consistent with the latest data released on March 17th, providing comprehensive coverage, but geopolitical news updates should be monitored.