HYPE breaks through $40: Whales continue to add to long, potential for new historical highs analysis
Key Insights : HYPE's price reached $40.47 (March 17, 2026, 02:34 UTC), a 24-hour increase of +7.87% , with a market capitalization exceeding $9.648 billion and a trading volume of $533 million , indicating strong liquidity. CoinGecko whale activity was the main driver, with several large investors continuously increasing their long positions over the past few days, bringing the total whale holdings to $3.905 billion (1:1 long-to-short ratio). However, the unrealized profits of long positions are significantly higher than those of short positions. This strengthens the short-term upward momentum. HYPE previously touched a high of nearly $50 in early February, and the current rebound may be heading towards a new all-time high. However, caution is advised regarding the risks of concentrated long positions and funding cost pressures. (ChainCatcher )
The price breaking through $40 was not an isolated event, but rather a result of the overall market recovery and whales actively increasing their leverage. News reports indicate that whales such as loracle.hl increased their HYPE long positions to millions of dollars after March 15th, while other traders such as Machi and "Buddy" followed suit on March 17th. Although Twitter discussion was limited (with only sporadic mentions of HYPE's mainstream potential), on-chain news consistently pointed to whale optimism, supporting the rapid price surge from $38 to $39.
Current market indicators
The data is highly real-time (updated less than 1 hour ago), HYPE has ample liquidity, and its 24-hour trading volume accounts for 5.52% of its market capitalization, far exceeding the average level of most altcoins.
Key Metrics Overview (CoinGecko)
| index | value | 24-hour changes | Context Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| price | $40.4721 | +7.87% | Breaking through the psychological level of $40, continuing its upward trend from the high of $38 on March 13. |
| Market capitalization | US$9.648 billion | - | Ranked among the top mid-sized projects, with a BTC price of 128,308 BTC. |
| 24-hour trading volume | $533 million | - | The market is in good health, with an ETH price of 226,658, supporting a bullish push. |
| Price (BTC) | 0.000538 BTC | +3.86% | It stabilized following BTC, but remained relatively strong. |
| Update time | 2026-03-17 02:34 UTC | - | Real-time data, no delay |
Why it matters : Trading volume increased fivefold compared to the average daily volume, indicating increased institutional interest, rather than retail FOMO. Market capitalization expansion is primarily price-driven, with stable circulating supply (no news of unlocking has been seen).
Whale Activity Tracking: Strong Long Signals
Over the past week, the total size of whales (holdings > $1 million) on the Hyperliquid platform reached $3.905 billion , with long positions at $1.956 billion (unrealized profit of +$92.9 million, ROI 50.08%) and short positions at $1.949 billion (unrealized loss of -$45.7 million). The long-to-short ratio was precisely 1:1, but the long positions' profitability was overwhelmingly superior, suggesting that whales prefer upward movement. (ChainCatcher )
Key Whale Event Timeline
| Date (UTC) | Event Details | Position size/impact | source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | New address 0x4f9... First order: $9.9 million HYPE 10x long position, average price $30.8, increased to $37. | Unrealized profit of 88% ($870,000) | BlockBeats ChainCatcher |
| 2026-03-13 | Continue to add to the position at the same address with compound interest, and the price breaks through $38. | Holdings of $9.9 million | BlockBeats |
| 2026-03-15 | loracle.hl increased its long position in HYPE 5x to 196,353 units ($7.37 million). | CL's short position has a paper loss of $600,000, but the total profit is still $23.57 million. | PANews ChainCatcher |
| 2026-03-16 | A $54 million HYPE bullish whale (suspected insider trading) has turned from loss to profit, with an average price of $38.67 and a floating profit of $590,000. | The position has been held for nearly 5 months and has not yet been closed. | BlockBeats |
| 2026-03-17 00:41 | Machi (@machibigbrother) 10x leverage plus HYPE long position, ETH/BTC synchronized leverage | Total unrealized profit: $1.41 million | Phemex |
| 2026-03-17 00:45 | "Buddy" whales are adding long positions in ETH/BTC/HYPE, with HYPE seeing an additional 64,000 coins added. | Total unrealized profit: $1.41 million | BlockBeats |
Analysis Logic : These events are not random—whales built positions in batches between $30 and $39, with leverage of 5-10x, resulting in an average cost of $34-$38, which is just below the current $40.47, forming a safety margin. Experienced traders like loracle.hl have accumulated profits exceeding $23 million, demonstrating confidence. The cumulative long position size has already surpassed the short profit gap. If BTC holds steady, HYPE is expected to test $45-$50.
Data limitations : There is no specific on-chain holding distribution (token_onchain_data is empty), Dune lacks a HYPE dashboard, making it impossible to quantify the concentration of top-level addresses. A Twitter search reveals only one mention (trading_axe is bullish on HYPE mainstreaming and its impact on beta coins), indicating insufficient social media buzz to dominate the narrative.
Historical high potential assessment
- ATH Reference : In early February, it was close to $50 (a 4-month high), currently at $40.47, down 19% from ATH. Whales have been accumulating positions since the end of October last year, missing the opportunity to sell at $50 but failing to stop losses, and now their unrealized profits have turned positive.
- Upside drivers : Whale long ROI is 50%+, and while the platform's total open interest is balanced, long positions are strong. If funding rates turn positive (currently neutral), this could be increased to $45 (+11%).
- Downside risks : Concentrated leverage (10x+), if the market retraces below $38, a wave of liquidations could trigger a $590k-level chain reaction (reference: $54M whale liquidation price $27.55). A 1:1 long-to-short ratio suggests short sellers are poised for action.
| scene | Price Target | Probability estimation | Key triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | $45-$50 | 60% | Whales continue to add to their positions, BTC > $75k |
| benchmark | $38-$42 | 30% | The market is consolidating, and trading volume remains stable. |
| bearish | $35-$38 | 10% | Chain reaction of margin calls, negative funding rates |
Why a move towards ATH is expected : Whale behavior leads price by 2-4 days (from the $38 news to the $40 breakout), and historically, similar accumulation phases have resulted in rebounds of 20%+. However, this requires the cooperation of BTC/ETH and the absence of negative news interference.
Conclusions and Recommendations
HYPE whales continue to long, breaking through the $40 support level. Trading activity and unrealized profits confirm short-term strength, with a new all-time high ($50) within reach – the probability is over 50%, especially if the platform's long position ratio rises to 55%. This reflects the expansion of the Hyperliquid ecosystem, but leverage amplifies volatility. We recommend monitoring the $38 support level.
Action Perspective :
- Aggressive traders : Buy at $40-$41, stop loss at $38.5, target $45.
- Conservative investors : Wait for a pullback to $38 to add to your position, or observe whale activity next week.
- Data caveat : Lacking on-chain depth metrics, conclusions are based on news and price data, real-time verification is necessary.
Overall, the whale narrative dominates, but it's not a risk-free paradise—bullish euphoria should be viewed with caution as a potential turning point may occur.