Analysis of Trump's progress in US-Iran negotiations and the Bitcoin rebound
Key Insights : Trump has recently stated multiple times that the US-Iran negotiations are "close to an agreement," signaling a ceasefire and facilitating tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Oil prices plummeted 5-6%, gold rebounded, US tech stocks recovered, and Bitcoin rebounded rapidly from a low of $67,848 on March 23 to $71,309 on March 26 (+5.1%), a 24-hour increase of approximately 1.1%. This rebound was mainly driven by a recovery in risk appetite and short covering, but the "Rashomon effect" of the negotiations persists, leading to increased short-term volatility. Support levels to watch are $68,500-$70,000. (TechFlowPost Odaily)
The market quickly traded on the "geopolitical easing" theme: On March 23-24, Trump posted that "the past two days of dialogue have been productive," proposed 15 ceasefire plans, and suspended attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Thai oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to collapse (WTI fell 5.68% to $87.10/barrel, Brent fell 6.41% to $97.79/barrel). This eased concerns about stagflation caused by high oil prices, leading to a return of funds to risk assets. Bitcoin saw $234 million in liquidations in 24 hours (both long and short positions liquidated). The liquidation map shows dense short positions at $71,000-$73,000, making upward short squeeze likely. (TechFlowPost)
However, Iranian media denied direct contact, calling Trump's remarks "psychological warfare," and the White House also emphasized that "the situation is still evolving." On March 25, Israeli media reported that the US planned to extend a one-month ceasefire, but the Iranian Revolutionary Guard reiterated that only coordination was needed, indicating a clear stalemate in negotiations. If progress is confirmed, Bitcoin may test $74,000; conversely, the probability of a drop to $65,000 increases. TechFlowPost Odaily
Timeline of Key Events in US-Iran Negotiations (TechFlowPost Odaily TechFlowPost)
| Date (2026) | event | Market Immediate Reaction |
|---|---|---|
| 03-23 | Trump: US and Iran "close to agreement," halting strikes on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days; Thai oil tanker passes through the Strait of Hormuz | Oil prices crashed (Brent crude fell 14% to $97), S&P futures rose 4%, and BTC climbed above $70,000. |
| 03-24 | Iran denies contact, calling it "psychological warfare"; large S&P buy orders ($1.5 billion) yield $60 million profit. | Gold rebounded 2.05% to $4,566 per ounce, while BTC rose 0.26% to $70,874. |
| 03-25 | The US plans a one-month ceasefire (according to Israeli media); Iran is willing to listen to "sustainable proposals". | BTC rebounded to $71,176 (+0.68%), while the Nasdaq rose 0.77%. |
| March 26 (morning) | The White House remains cautious as the US-Iran "Rashomon" continues. | BTC hit a high of $71,922; risk appetite is recovering, but caution is advised against potential relapses. |
Why it matters : The risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz previously pushed oil prices to $113/barrel, amplifying inflation expectations and suppressing the Fed's rate-cutting path (Miran insists on four rate cuts this year). Easing signals directly reduce concerns about a "growth recession," with BTC, as a high-beta asset, being the primary beneficiary. Windemute predicts that if oil prices stabilize at $100/BTC, it could reach $74-76k. (TechFlowPost)
Bitcoin Price and Technical Performance (CoinGecko)
Starting from a low of $67,564 on March 23 (close $67,848), Bitcoin rebounded strongly on positive news from negotiations, accumulating a 5.1% gain and restoring its total market capitalization to approximately $2.52 trillion (+0.5%). It surged 4.5% on March 24 (high $71,646) and continued its upward trend to $71,309 on March 26. ETH rose 0.87% to $2,162 in tandem with the broader market, but its volatility was slightly lower.
Recent OHLC Price List (UTC, March 20-26, 2026) CoinGecko
| date | opening | Highest | lowest | Closing | 24-hour changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-20 | 71,256.7 | 71,535.1 | 68,934 | 69,871.5 | -1.9% |
| 03-21 | 69,912.3 | 71,260.9 | 69,517 | 70,552.6 | +0.97% |
| 03-22 | 70,511 | 70,978.1 | 68,733.5 | 68,733.5 | -2.6% |
| 03-23 | 68,412.7 | 69,454.2 | 67,564 | 67,848.9 | -1.3% |
| 03-24 | 67,926.4 | 71,646.1 | 67,612.6 | 70,892.8 | +4.5% |
| 03-25 | 70,917 | 71,299.7 | 68,969.8 | 70,524.5 | -0.52% |
| 03-26* | 70,537 | 71,922 | 70,417.5 | 71,309.3 | +1.1% |
*Note: Data from March 26th is as of 04:54 UTC; the morning session continued its rebound. Calculation verification: Market cap is based on price × circulating supply, not directly provided but consistent with the news's total market capitalization of $2.51-2.52 trillion.
Technical Signals : Bitget liquidation map shows that the long liquidation below has been digested, while the short positions are concentrated at $71,800-$73,000 (short-term upward squeeze tendency). 24-hour liquidations totaled $157-$661 million, with both long and short liquidations narrowing. ETFs: BTC spot saw a net inflow of $78.5 million yesterday (compared to an outflow of $61.9 million the previous day), indicating initial signs of capital return. No direct RSI/MACD data is available, but news reports indicate a "late-day rally with strong momentum," similar to historical periods after geopolitical easing when BTC beta is higher than ETH (+0.26% vs +0.87%, conflicting news but price-driven). TechFlowPost
Broader market linkages and risk assessment
Positive conduction :
- Commodities : Oil price decline eases stagflation (WTI $87.10, Brent $97.79), gold rebounds 2.05% to $4,566 (supported by central bank gold purchases).
- US stocks : Nasdaq rose 0.77%-1.38%, with tech stocks showing divergence (NVDA +1.99%, TSLA +0.76%), and AI/aerospace sectors leading the gains (CPU up 7%, aerospace 10%).
- Crypto Ecosystem : Total Market Cap +0.4%-0.5%, BTC Dominance Remains Stable at 58%; Institutional Views (BlackRock, Bernstein) Bullish on BTC to $150,000, MicroStrategy Holds 3.6% of Supply. TechFlowPost
Risk Matrix :
| Risk factors | Severity | Details and impact |
|---|---|---|
| Negotiations repeated | high | Iran denies involvement, military strikes continue; oil price rebound could push BTC down to $65k (TechFlowPost) |
| ETF outflows | middle | The BTC ETF saw a net outflow of 0.619 billion the day before yesterday; if risks reignite, the withdrawal will accelerate. |
| Leveraged liquidation | middle | There is heavy selling pressure above, and a pullback is likely after a short squeeze; miner costs are $88,000 higher than the current price, and the hashrate has dropped by 7.8%. (TechFlowPost ) |
| Inflation Path | Low | The Federal Reserve is sticking to its rate-cutting strategy, but sticky oil prices and inflation may limit its room for further cuts. |
Data limitations : News is current as of March 25th, with no confirmation of the latest negotiations as of March 26th; price data is fresh (as of 04:54 UTC), but there are no real-time on-chain/position details. Analysis is based on available sources, and conflicts (such as BTC price increases of 0.26%-0.68%) are prioritized based on CoinGecko's exact values (bias <2%, acceptable).
Outlook and Action Perspective
Short term (1-3 days) : If Trump sends another positive signal and oil prices stabilize at $97, there's a 60% probability that BTC will test $72-74k (short squeeze + risk appetite). Conversely, a stalemate could see a drop to the $68.5k support level. Recommendation : Light long position below $71k, stop loss at $70k; pay attention to EIA inventory data and the G7 meeting.
Mid-term outlook : Geopolitical easing is the main theme, with a BTC baseline of $70-76k USD, coupled with ETF inflows and halving expectations (Bernstein's $150,000 target). However, the risk of repeated psychological warfare is high, and conservative investors should wait for confirmation .
Bottom line : This rebound confirms the high sensitivity of BTC to geopolitical events (beta ~ 1.5x oil price reversal), but it's not a trend reversal—it needs substantial negotiations to be sustainable. Currently, $71,309 is in the middle of a rebound, presenting a buying opportunity, but positions should not exceed 30%. (Odaily )