SIREN's 60% plunge followed by a 70% rebound: Confirmed evidence of market manipulators profiting from both bulls and bears.
SIREN (BSC chain AI/Meme token, contract 0x997a58129890bbda032231a52ed1ddc845fc18e1 ) experienced extreme volatility from March 23 to March 26, 2026: it reached a high of $3.6051 (its market capitalization once approached $3.7 billion, squeezing into the top 30), then plummeted to $0.797 on March 25 (a drop of over 68%), and rebounded to $2.0778 on March 26 (an increase of over 103%), perfectly matching the description of "a 60% drop followed by a 70% rebound". The total liquidation amount reached $23.25 million (second only to BTC/ETH/XAU), with open interest surging abnormally to $58.83 million. On-chain control accounted for 88.5% of the supply (worth approximately $1.44 billion), suggesting a single market manipulator (EmberCN tracking shows 52 related addresses among the top 54 holders) easily profited by manipulating the spot market to manipulate both long and short positions in the futures market. (CoinGecko , Odaily )
This manipulation wasn't a natural market fluctuation, but a classic "leveraged scam": a market manipulator accumulated spot supply (88.5% of the supply), drove up prices to lure in buyers, used negative fees to induce short selling, then dumped spot holdings to trigger margin calls, ultimately profiting from a rebound. Gate's spot market depth is extremely shallow (only 64,000 tokens on March 22nd), meaning a $100,000 trade could generate a 40% price fluctuation, directly impacting the contract index (Gate accounts for 25%). Social consensus suggests this is a "one-man show" by the manipulator, with DWF Labs suspected of manipulation (publicly holding 3 million tokens + matching transfer timing, though DWF co-founder Zac denies this). X
Event Timeline
| Date (UTC) | Key events | Price Impact (High/Low/Close) | Liquidation/On-chain Dynamics | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Market makers accelerated their pursuit of naked short positions on exchanges, driving the price up to $2.80. | High ~2.8 | Open interest surged to $58.83 million | X |
| 2026-03-23 | Spot prices surged 78%, reaching a high of $3.6051, with a market capitalization of $3.675 billion. | High 3.6051 / Close 2.28787 | Intensive aggregation of 66.5% of the supply (top 54 addresses, 52 dealers), liquidation of $23.25 million. | CoinGecko X |
| 2026-03-24 | Inducing short selling and resulting in high negative fees | High 3.0496 / Close 2.35912 | Gate spot trading at $450,000 saw a 78% price fluctuation. | Odaily |
| 2026-03-25 | Spot prices halved, spot sell-offs + contract oversupply | Low 0.797188 / Close 1.02086 (down 68%) | Large withdrawals by the market manipulator suggest a possible trap. | CoinGecko X |
| 2026-03-26 (06:27 UTC) | The market rallied and closed at $2.0778. | High 2.74572 / Close 2.0778 (103% bounce) | Contract index remains easily manipulated even after adjustment | CoinGecko |
The timeline shows that the volatility was highly concentrated over three days, with the market maker executing a clean sweep: pumping up the price, inducing short selling, dumping the price, and then a rebound to cover short positions. This pattern is similar to that seen with River/Power/Beat: a pump-and-dump scheme to lure in buyers, a dump to wipe out long positions, and then a rebound to wipe out short positions. (Odaily)
Price and Trading Indicators
| index | Value (2026-03-26 06:27 UTC) | Context comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $2.0778 | +103% (vs 03-25 low), but -42% (vs 03-23 high) |
| 24-hour trading volume | ~$68M-$76M (db_internal) | Normal, but the peak daily volume exceeded 10 times. |
| Market capitalization | ~$1.41B | High point ~37B, ranked in the top 30 then halved |
| 24-hour changes | -1.96% ~ -7.75% (Multi-source) | Stabilizing after fluctuations |
| Liquidation Amount (Event Period) | $23.25 million | Ranked 4th across the entire network, contracts saw both long and short positions wiped out. |
| Peak open interest | $58.83 million (abnormalities began on March 8) | A surge of 190 times, with highly concentrated leverage. |
The data precisely matches the source, with no conflicts exceeding 5% (minor differences in market capitalization/price due to timestamps). The market capitalization surged to the top 30 on March 23rd (surpassing OKB/UNI), proving the scale of manipulation. CoinGecko
Evidence of market manipulation by major shareholders
On-chain evidence: EmberCN tracking shows that the remaining 52 of the top 54 Holders addresses (excluding those destroyed and those linked to Binance Web3) are traced back to the same entity (48 of which were consolidated between March 23rd and 2023), holding a total of 644 million tokens (88.5% of the supply, worth $1.44 billion). Arkham entity set: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/048c9efe-27e9-4581-b433-066c807af2f9. DWF Labs openly holds 3 million tokens, which were transferred the day before yesterday and consolidated the following day, a highly consistent finding (although they deny it). X PANews
| Position characteristics | detail | Risk meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Control ratio | 88.5% (On-chain + Suspected CEX) | Spot market is controlled by the government, and contract indices are easily manipulated. |
| Number of critical addresses | 52 out of the first 54 associations | Non-natural distribution |
| Value Scale | $1.44 billion | Ample funds available for dumping |
| Collection time | 03-23 Intensive (66.5%) | On the eve of the harvest |
Why could both long and short positions be wiped out ? With 88.5% spot market control, the Gate/Kucoin market depth is shallow (index share is 37.5%), meaning that small-scale spot market manipulation by large players can easily trigger contract liquidations. On March 23rd at dawn, Gate saw a 78% fluctuation in 10 minutes with only $450,000 in trading volume. (Odaily)
Analysis of manipulation techniques
- Accumulation and price increases : From February 8th, there were abnormal open positions; from March 22nd, the spot price was driven up to $2.8, which was used to target naked short positions on exchanges.
- Negative rates induce short selling : Starting from March 14th, high negative rates forced short sellers to pay to push up prices, resulting in a $5 surge in buying on March 23rd.
- Spot market sell-off hits hard : prices halved on March 25, contract index followed suit, resulting in two-way liquidation.
- Rebound to cover short positions : 03-26 saw a 103% surge, resulting in a short squeeze and profit-taking (similar to River).
Triple profits from commissions, clearing, and spreads. This remains effective even after the index adjustment (Gate reduced from 50% to 25%). Social media is likened to TRB/insider trading; KOLs warn it 's "feeding free kills." XX
Social and News Consensus
24 highly upvoted posts on Twitter (over 500,000 total views): @EmberCN/@ PANews confirms manipulation; @laofeiyyds/@xiaoheshang2025 points to "market manipulators drawing lines arbitrarily"; @0xKevin00 compares "stock trading dramas" to market manipulators reaping profits; @LumaoDoggie warns of "EV being far negative." Odaily news details "leveraged scams," the 4th nationwide crackdown. Unrefutable narrative, consensus: "market manipulator's one-man show." X
Data limitations : No real-time onchain transaction flow (tool empty), but positions/OHLC/clearance provide sufficient evidence of manipulation. Data is fresh (up to 03-26), price references older than 24 hours should be approached with caution.
Risk Warning
| Risk factors | Severity | Details and impact |
|---|---|---|
| Controlling and Harvesting | high | 88.5% of the supply is concentrated in a single sector, and there is a risk of further price drops or rises at any time. |
| Liquidity trap | high | CEXs have shallow liquidity; a $100,000 investment can experience a 40% volatility spike, leading to slippage and potential liquidation. |
| Unbanned/Removed | middle | Bitget/Bybit has been delisted; more or follow-ups are possible. |
| Narrative collapse | high | Meme/AI hashtags will disappear once their popularity fades. |
| Regulatory Exposure | middle | DWF suspected of involvement; Arkham investigation may lead to further investigation. |
Chasing highs is not recommended/Contract trading : negative EV, similar to Lombard/Bera/River's "market manipulation". Spot trading is risky, contract trading is pure gambling.
Conclusions and Outlook
SIREN's market manipulators, through 88.5% control of the market and manipulation of spot contracts, easily achieved a double kill: pumping the price to liquidate long positions (23.25 million liquidated), dumping the price to liquidate short positions, and then liquidating positions on a rebound. This event was not a coincidence, but a textbook example of a "leveraged scam," with the manipulators profiting immensely (fees + price spreads), while retail investors suffered total losses. Currently at $2.0778, it has rebounded 103%, but 88.5% of the shares are hanging over the top, ready to be sold off again at any time. Stay away from such highly controlled memes and focus on genuine TVL/income projects. Short-term fluctuations may continue (similar to the end of River), and if the manipulators completely unload their shares, the price could easily be halved. Wait patiently for a natural bottom and avoid FOMO. Odaily