Bitcoin's price movement against the backdrop of the Iran war: Is the rebound sustainable?
Execution Summary
Bitcoin has shown relative resilience to gold and silver during the fifth week of the Iran war (as of March 31, 2026). A JPMorgan report indicates continued inflows into BTC ETFs, while precious metals ETFs saw outflows of nearly $11 billion. The surge in Iranian crypto activity has strengthened its safe-haven appeal. (TradingView TheBlock)
However, the user's claim that "Trump is rushing to withdraw from the war with Iran" lacks direct news confirmation. Instead, reports indicate that Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran by 10 days and hinted at 3,554 remaining targets, suggesting continued war risk. This has caused BTC to recently fall back to around 66k (closing at $66,699 on March 31). (CoinDesk BloomingBit)
The probability of a short-term reversal is moderate : BTC has rebounded more than 2% from its early March low of 65,149, but war uncertainty and high oil prices (Brent crude at $107) are suppressing risk assets. Without a clear signal of withdrawal, the rebound may be limited. Technically, the 50-day moving average provides support, but a drop to 65k should be watched closely. (CoinGecko )
Latest developments in the Iran war and Trump's statements
The news focus is on the stalemate in the fifth week of the Iran war, not on a "rush to withdraw":
- Trump Extends Deadline : On March 27, Trump extended the deadline for the Iran ceasefire negotiations by 10 days to early April, stating that "progress is going well." However, the WSJ immediately reported that the Pentagon was considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops, indicating that the risks in the Middle East had not subsided. (CoinDesk TradingView)
- Statement on targets : At the Miami summit, Trump stated that "Iran has never experienced anything like this, and there are 3,554 targets to be struck, which will be dealt with swiftly," hinting that military action may continue. BloomingBit
- Iran responds : rejects Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, demands sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and war reparations, escalating US-Iran tensions and sending oil prices up 48% to $107 per barrel. (Coinpedia )
- Political pressure : Trump's approval rating has fallen to its lowest point in 2026, and the probability of impeachment during Trump's term has risen to 70% on Polymarket, influenced by war and economic concerns. (Bitcoin.com)
These dynamics explain the market's "risk-averse" sentiment: Asian and US stocks declined (S&P 500 year-end forecasts were lowered, and Goldman Sachs' probability of recession rose to 30%), but BTC remained relatively stable and did not plummet by 15% along with gold.
Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis (March Data)
BTC experienced significant volatility in March, surging to a high of 74,858 in the early to mid-March (March 17th) before pulling back to a low of 65,112 (March 30th), resulting in a cumulative monthly gain of approximately 0.5% (from the opening price of 66,995 on March 2nd). This partially aligns with user observations of a "gold rebound followed by BTC" pattern: precious metal liquidity deteriorated (the Hui-Heubel ratio indicates that BTC market breadth was better than gold), but BTC did not fully follow the rebound, instead fluctuating between highs and lows.
Key price periods compared to CoinGecko
| period | Opening price | highest price | Lowest price | closing price | Change % (vs. previous low) | Background of the event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2-9 (early stages of the war) | 66995 | 73953 | 65149 | 66036 | -1.4% (low during the month) | War breaks out, BTC initially drops then stabilizes |
| March 10-17 (Mid-term surge) | 65963 | 74861 | 65963 | 74858 | +13.4% | ETF inflows fuel Iranian crypto surge |
| March 18-24 (Pullback) | 74744 | 75937 | 67564 | 70893 | -5.3% | Oil prices surged and US stocks fell. |
| March 25-31 (soon) | 70917 | 71922 | 65112 | 66699 | -6.0% (low of the month) | Trump's delay + troop surge rumors |
Trend Analysis :
- Rebound Logic : During the war, net inflows into BTC ETFs offset outflows (BlackRock ranked in the top 2%). Chainalysis data from Iran shows funds shifting from local exchanges to custodian/international platforms, reinforcing the narrative of BTC as a "borderless safe haven." Momentum indicators have returned to neutral from oversold, showing stronger momentum than gold (which transitioned from overbought to neutral). The Block
- Reversal pressures : The price has recently fallen 3.2% in the last 24 hours and 2.7% weekly, with a market capitalization of $2.4 trillion (total crypto market). Oil price inverse correlation has reached a one-year high, suppressing risk assets; without confirmation of a retreat, any rebound may be a "Dead Cat Bounce."
- Data limitations : No real-time gold price available, making it impossible to accurately verify the "gold rebound"; News as of March 30th, current (2026-03-31 01:22 UTC) may have pre-market fluctuations, but BTC is holding steady above the 50-day moving average (bullish signal).
Gold vs. BTC Relative Performance
JPMorgan's core view: BTC is showing "safe-haven demand" during wartime, while gold/silver crowded trades are unwinding.
| assets | Monthly changes | ETF Flows (First Three Weeks of March) | Momentum Indicator | Liquidity (market breadth) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Stable (+0.5%) | Net inflow | Oversold to Neutral | Superior to gold |
| gold | -15% | -11 billion US dollars | Overbought and then reversed | deterioration |
| silver | crash | Reversing last year's inflow | Same as above | worst |
Why is BTC stronger ? Self-custody + 24/7 trading is suitable for geopolitical pressures; institutional holdings are stable (CME futures have not decreased significantly), while precious metals institutions have reduced their holdings. PANews
Risk Assessment and Outlook
| Risk factors | Severity | Details and impact |
|---|---|---|
| War extended | high | Delayed to early April, oil prices at $107 pressure S&P/crypto; if more troops are deployed, BTC may test the $65k support level. |
| Macro recession | middle | Goldman Sachs predicts a 30% recession, making a Fed rate cut unlikely; the inverse correlation between BTC and oil prices intensifies. |
| Political uncertainty | middle | Trump faces a 70% chance of impeachment; low approval ratings could accelerate the risk. |
| Positive factors | - | ETF inflows + Iranian demand; BitMine increases ETH holdings (hinting at crypto resilience) Decrypt |
Reversal scenario :
- Bull Market (40%) : Withdrawal signals + oil price decline, BTC returns to 70k (needs a breakthrough in negotiations in early April).
- Benchmark (50%) : Oscillations between 66-70k, 50-day moving average held.
- Bear Market (10%) : Increased troop presence confirmed, fell to 60k (in sync with US stocks).
Why it might not last : No evidence of troop withdrawal; the war's "headline whipping" mode has lasted for 5 weeks (upgraded after downgrading); BTC beta is high compared to risk assets; Simon Dixon's view: The dollar system is under pressure, but BTC's independence is limited. Coinpedia
in conclusion
BTC's "rebound," following gold's lead, stems more from relative advantages (safe-haven inflows + improved liquidity) than an absolute reversal. With the war in a stalemate and Trump's tough stance, the short-term downside risk outweighs the upside (target 66-68k range). Investors should focus on the early April deadline and oil prices; without a clear cooling, it's advisable to observe the support level around 65k. Data is based on news/prices before March 31st; real-time events may change the landscape—currently, there's no confirmed "withdrawal," so cautious optimism is warranted.