Market reaction after Powell's speech: Rate hike expectations have been largely flattened, and risk assets are beginning to see a short-term respite.

In his speech at Harvard University on March 30, 2026 , Powell emphasized that the short-term shock to oil prices would not change the assessment that inflation expectations were "well anchored," and the Federal Reserve was in no hurry to respond, currently maintaining a "wait-and-see" policy stance. This directly led to a decrease in the market's probability of a 2026 rate hike from 25% on Friday to about 5%, and a decline in bond yields (the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.44% to 4.35%), providing a brief respite for risk assets. However, with oil prices continuing to climb to $105 per barrel, the unresolved Middle East conflict, and $414 million in fund outflows, the crypto market remains mired in extreme fear. While a respite exists, it is fragile and vulnerable to reversals in geopolitical risks . (TradingView)

Impact of the speech: Interest rate hike expectations plummeted, and the bond market halted its bleeding.

Following Powell 's speech ( March 30, 2026, 10:30 ET , approximately 14:30 UTC), the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of maintaining the current interest rate at the April 29 meeting rose to 95.3%, with only a 4.7%-5% chance of a rate hike. This eased market concerns about a rate hike under stagflationary conditions, causing the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields to fall by 8bp and 9bp respectively. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed down 0.75% and 0.4% respectively that day, but avoided a deeper correction. Before the speech, the market priced in at least one rate hike this year (the dot plot only projected one rate cut), but afterwards it shifted to a "zero rate cut + slight rate hike risk," but Powell reiterated that "the economic impact is still uncertain," providing breathing room for risk assets.

Twitter sentiment is cautiously optimistic: users are focused on Powell's "unscripted" remarks easing pressure on the bond market, but warn that oil prices are "equivalent to a 25bp rate hike cycle."

Cryptocurrency price performance: Slight rebound after the speech, weekly decline narrows.

BTC/ETH opened lower and continued to decline on the day of the speech (March 30), but rebounded the following day (March 31), indicating that short-term buying pressure had subsided in response to expectations of an interest rate hike. BTC fell from a high of around 71k at the beginning of the week (March 24), dropping about 6% for the week, but recovered from $65,970 to $66,699 (+1.1%) after the speech. ETH followed a similar pattern, rebounding from $1,983 to $2,024 (+1.8%). (CoinGecko )

BTC/ETH Recent OHLC Price Chart (March 25th to March 31st , 2026 UTC, 1-day interval) CoinGecko

Analysis : After the speech, BTC tested the 65k support level but failed to break it, and the V-shaped rebound the following day reflected expectations of improved liquidity. However, the weekly low reached $65,112, still some distance from the bottom of the Willy Woo CVDD model (45.5k-54k). The bulls have gained some breathing room in the short term, but momentum is insufficient. (TradingView )

Market Sentiment and On-Chain Indicators: Hopeful Signals Emerge Amidst Extreme Fear

The Fear & Greed Index remained at 12 (extreme fear) , stabilizing in the 10-15 range for the past 7 days, suggesting a potential buying opportunity. However, funds experienced a net outflow of $414 million last week (the first such outflow in 5 weeks, with BTC outflowing 194 million and ETH 222 million), dragged down by the Iran conflict and fears of interest rate hikes. (Coinglass PANews)

On-chain metrics support the "fair value" positioning:

BTC Key Indicators (as of March 30, 2026 UTC) CryptoQuant

ETH funding rates are also neutral. Overall signal: the market is digesting bad news and valuations are recovering, but outflows indicate institutional selling.

Potential risks: Soaring oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty dominate.

The breathing space faces reversal pressure:

• Oil prices : WTI rose 5.3% to $105/barrel, Brent to $114. The fifth week of the Iran conflict, coupled with Trump's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, amounts to a "hidden interest rate hike." (CoinDesk )
• Fund outflows : $414 million last week, with the US dollar leading the outflow at $445 million, and ETH experiencing the heaviest outflow (net outflow of $273 million in YTD). CoinShares via PANews
• Macro : Nasdaq corrects more than 10%, OECD raises US inflation forecast to 4.2%, Lagarde warns of potential interest rate hikes in Europe. (Techflowpost)
• Twitter: Oil prices are "doing the Fed's job," BTC may fall below 50k. X

Conclusions and Outlook

Yes, risk assets have received a short-term respite : Powell's speech leveled the playing field for rate hike expectations, driving a 1-2% rebound in BTC/ETH the following day. On-chain indicators show undervaluation and signs of hope, with the fear index extremely low, potentially signaling a reversal. However, this is merely a "tactical rebound," not a trend reversal—oil prices and geopolitical risks are the main drivers, and fund outflows indicate a lack of institutional confidence. Recommendation : Aggressive traders can consider a small position in dips (BTC 65k support), while conservative traders should wait for oil prices to stabilize and for the April 2nd non-farm payroll data (expected unemployment rate 4.5%). Downside risks: Oil breaking $110, BTC may retest 65k; Upside catalysts: Progress in Iran negotiations + ISM PMI > 52. TradingView

Data Notes : All data is current as of 02:03 UTC on March 31, 2026, with high freshness (<24h), consistent source, and no conflicts exceeding 5%. ETH on-chain data is limited; focus is placed on BTC-dominated data. [Current Time: 02:03 UTC on March 31, 2026]