Trump talks about ending the war with Iran: Bitcoin and gold rebound, how far has the bull market returned?
Key Observations : Trump expressed his willingness to end the war with Iran (even if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened), and the Iranian president responded with a similar intention, triggering a market "relief rally." Bitcoin rebounded from a late March low of $65,000 to $68,231 (closing price on April 1, 2026), gold touched $4,640/ounce, and US stocks surged by more than 3%. However, derivatives data and macroeconomic pressures indicate that traders remain bearish, and a full bull market return requires a genuine end to the war and the return of institutional funds.
Markets are highly sensitive to signs of geopolitical easing: the Nasdaq rose 3.8% in a single day, and Bitcoin briefly surged to $68,400 before retreating. This reflects a shift in investor sentiment from extreme panic to risk appetite, but oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, and the probability of a Fed rate cut has fallen to 10%, limiting the upside potential. TradingView
Key Event Timeline
Recent signals of easing tensions in the Middle East have fueled a rebound in risk assets. The following is a summary of key events (UTC time zone):
| Date and Time (UTC) | event | Market Immediate Reaction |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 07:10 | Wall Street Journal: Trump willing to end military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz is partially closed. (TradingView ) | Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $67,362 as risk appetite in US stocks rebounded. |
| 2026-03-31 11:57 | Decrypt : Trump prioritizes ending the war; White House confirms reopening the Strait as a non-core objective. | Bitcoin holds steady at $66,000, with a 61% probability of a bearish market outlook. |
| 2026-03-31 16:46 | BlockBeats : Iranian President signals end to war; Nasdaq rises over 3%. | Bitcoin broke through $68,000, Ethereum broke through $2,100; silver rose 6% to $74.25 per ounce. |
| 2026-04-01 (Morning) | Iran's official X account: President Pezeshkian says he is willing to end the war, but security guarantees are needed. (Decrypt ) | Bitcoin surged to $68,400 before retreating to $67,821; Coinbase stock rose 9%. |
These statements mark the first major turning point since the conflict began in late February (when Bitcoin was at $64,000), with oil prices briefly falling 4% to $103.53 per barrel, but still up 48% cumulatively. (CoinGecko)
Bitcoin price performance
Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $65,586 on March 28 to close at $68,231 on April 1, a 24-hour increase of approximately 2.3%. This is clearly correlated with the US stock market, but it failed to break through the previous high of $71,000.
Daily OHLC data (March 26, 2026 to April 1, 2026) CoinGecko
| Date (UTC) | Opening price | highest price | Lowest price | closing price | 24-hour changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | 70,537 | 71,922 | 70,417.5 | 71,309.3 | +1.1% |
| 2026-03-27 | 71,287.9 | 71,379.1 | 68,146.1 | 68,791.1 | -3.5% |
| 2026-03-28 | 68,746 | 69,057.9 | 65,586.6 | 66,321 | -3.6% |
| 2026-03-29 | 66,327.7 | 67,185.8 | 65,958.6 | 66,321.1 | +0.0% |
| 2026-03-30 | 66,405.2 | 66,988.5 | 65,112.3 | 65,970.4 | -0.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 65,877.1 | 68,018.8 | 65,839.3 | 66,699.3 | +1.1% |
| 2026-04-01 | 66,683.5 | 68,286.4 | 66,038 | 68,231.8 | +2.3% |
Analysis : After bottoming out at $65,000-$66,000, the price rebounded driven by news. It has fallen approximately 4.3% over 7 days, but intraday volatility has decreased, indicating easing panic. Upbit data from South Korea shows that the BTC price in Korean won remained stable at 102 million won, while trading volume increased by 21.2%. (CoinGecko )
Gold reached $4,640/oz (+2.86%) and silver reached $74.25 (+6%), confirming the dual drivers of safe-haven demand and risk appetite.
Market reaction and macroeconomic background
- Stock market correlation : Nasdaq +3.63%-3.83%, S&P 500 +2.7%-2.91%, Dow Jones +2.32%. Crypto stocks such as Coinbase rose 9%, Bitdeer rose 12%, and Nvidia rose 5%. Decrypt
- Commodity divergence : Oil prices retreated but remained high (Brent $103-118/barrel), inflation concerns delayed the probability of a Fed rate cut in July to <10% (previously 75%). Cointelegraph
- Crypto Insider : ETH rose 3.5% to $2,093, XRP +0.67%, and the altcoin index rose 1.58%. However, Upbit altcoin outperformed BTC, indicating capital outflow. (Coinreaders)
Derivatives signals are bearish : BTC futures annualized premium is only 2% (below the 4% threshold, lacking demand for long leverage); 30-day put options premium is 17% (extreme fear, normal range is -6% to +6%). Traders expect $66,000 to be difficult to hold, and quantum computing concerns (Google report) have subsided after a brief impact. ( Cointelegraph )
Social data limitations: No highly interactive tweets were found (min_faves: 10, 3/25-4/1), the market narrative is still dominated by news, and there are no obvious KOL bullish calls.
risk assessment
| Risk factors | Severity | Details and impact |
|---|---|---|
| Oil prices & inflation | high | Brent crude oil prices surpassing $100 have pushed up PPI and CPI, increasing the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining stable interest rates to 97.4%. If this trend continues, the demand for Bitcoin as a store of value will increase, but it will face short-term pressure. |
| Geopolitical uncertainty | high | "Security guarantees" are needed; the probability of a ceasefire is only 3% (Myriad market); the strait remains closed, increasing supply risk. |
| Derivatives Fear | middle | High Put premium, SOPR < 1 for long-term holders (signs of loss-making sell-off) |
| Macro recession | middle | US unemployment and high interest rates suggest stimulus policies may benefit the stock market more than Bitcoin. |
Mitigating factors : Whales are accumulating positions in the $65,000-$66,000 range (Santiment), and institutional demand remains stable (Franklin Templeton). If the war ends before April 6th, Bitcoin may break $90,000 (Bitget analyst).
Bull Market Return Outlook
Short term (1-2 weeks) : Easing of tensions = continued rebound, Bitcoin target $68,000-$70,000, high probability (risk appetite dominant). However, oil prices and the Fed's actions limit upside, public fear index is 30 (Fear zone).
Mid-term (January-March) : A bull market return requires multiple catalysts—a genuine end to the war (reopening of the Straits), institutional inflows, and regulatory clarity. Historical analogy: BTC replicated its rebound after the 2020 recession, but current quantum/political risks (midterm elections) add uncertainty. Without these, it is likely to remain trapped in a $66,000 range.
Scenario Analysis :
| scene | Bitcoin target (end of April) | probability | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| (Ceasefire) | $80,000-$90,000 | 30% | Partial reopening of the Straits + continued rise in US stocks |
| Baseline | $66,000-$72,000 | 50% | Diplomatic deadlock leads to oil price volatility at high levels |
| Bear | <65,000 USD | 20% | Negotiations break down, oil prices fall below $120 |
Bottom line : The rebound is real, but not the start of a bull market. The end of the war may unlock risk, but macroeconomic factors (inflation + interest rates) will dominate the overall situation. It is recommended to monitor the White House statement and oil prices. Short-term long positions can be entered around 68k, but be wary of increased selling pressure due to put premiums. Data as of 01:36 UTC, April 1, 2026; prices fluctuate in real time.