Progress of the US Clarity Act Stablecoin Bill and Circle Stock Price Analysis
Key Insights : The U.S. Senate Banking Committee's Clarity Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) reached a crucial compromise on stablecoin yields—prohibiting passive interest generation (such as deposit interest) but retaining reward mechanisms based on user activity (such as transaction cashback and on-chain participation). This move is considered a significant step forward, driving Circle (CRCL) stock price up 34% over the past week (from $90.88 on April 30 to $121.80 on May 6), and up approximately 22% in the past five days (May 1-6), approaching the "nearly 30%" mentioned by users. StockAnalysis : This reflects the market's repricing of Circle USDC as a compliant payment infrastructure, coupled with the DTCC tokenization timeline for U.S. stocks (Circle is a core member), providing strong short-term catalysts. However, the bill still needs to be passed by markup in May, and a long-term rebound in the banking sector needs to be observed.
The Clarity Act compromise resolved a core disagreement between banks and the crypto industry (banks were concerned about deposit outflows), and Polymarket data shows the probability of its passage this year has risen to 70% . Meanwhile , Circle's stock price rose as much as 8% in overnight trading,带动Coinbase (+6-7%), BitGo (+10%), and other crypto stocks to follow suit, highlighting the stablecoin narrative dominating market sentiment.
Circle (CRCL) Stock Performance Stock Analysis
Trading volume surged over the past week (over 30 million shares on May 4th), with a single-day jump of 19.89% on May 4th directly corresponding to news of a compromise on the bill. The cumulative increase is 34%, accelerating market capitalization revaluation, but with significant volatility (a 4.47% pullback on May 5th).
| Date (2026) | opening | Highest | lowest | Closing | Change | Trading volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-06 | 115.00 | 122.86 | 113.20 | 121.80 | +6.66% | 16,924,038 |
| 05-05 | 121.40 | 121.40 | 112.45 | 114.19 | -4.47% | 22,239,336 |
| 05-04 | 107.13 | 119.99 | 106.90 | 119.53 | +19.89% | 31,962,716 |
| 05-01 | 92.77 | 100.01 | 92.21 | 99.70 | +9.71% | 9,482,911 |
| 04-30 | 95.29 | 95.29 | 89.90 | 90.88 | -4.90% | 9,099,254 |
| Cumulative (April 30 to May 6) | - | - | - | - | +34.1% | - |
Data Explanation : Over the past 5 days (May 1-6), the price rose from $99.70 to $121.80, an increase of 22.1% ; if the baseline of April 30 is included, the increase is closer to 30%. The current price is $121.80 (closing price on May 6), down slightly by 0.74% in after-hours trading. (Google Finance)
Detailed Explanation of the Clarity Act Bill
The Clarity Act aims to clarify the jurisdictional boundaries of the SEC/CFTC and define stablecoins as payment instruments (non-interest-bearing assets). It was previously stalled due to controversy surrounding stablecoin yields: banks lobbied against it (concerned about the outflow of $6.6 trillion in deposits), while the crypto industry fought to retain it. CryptoSlate's latest compromise (Tillis/Alsobrooks text, not officially released):
| Points of contention | Original Disagreement | compromise | Influence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passive life | Encryption supported, banks opposed | (Deposit interest) is prohibited. | Protecting the Bank Deposit Base The Block |
| Activity Rewards | - | Retain (transaction/consumption cashback, on-chain activities) | To stimulate USDC use cases, Coinbase claims it "protects real-world usage rewards." (TicketRanks ) |
| schedule | Postponed to the end of April | May 11th week markup (Senate Banking Committee) | Polymarket has a 70% chance of passing this year; key to its implementation before the election is X. |
Why is this a significant development ? Following the release of the compromise text, markups are expected to resume, resolving the April delay (DeFi terms/ethical issues). The White House CEA report estimates the ban will only increase bank lending by 0.02%, weakening the banks' argument. ODaily
DTCC Tokenization of US Stocks: Circle Adds Additional Benefit to LedgerInsights
DTCC (the "General Ledger" of US stocks) has released its timeline, with Circle among the 50+ core members of the working group (including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Kraken).
| stage | time | assets | Circle character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited trial production | 2026-07 | Russell 1000 shares/ETF/US Treasury bonds | USDC Settlement Potential (CoinDesk) |
| Fully launched | 2026-10 | Expanding public/private blockchains (EVM compatible) | Infrastructure providers bridging TradFi and DeFi |
USDC is expected to become a tokenized settlement layer, driving Circle's transformation from an issuer to an infrastructure provider.
Market Impact and USDC Performance
- Crypto stocks moved in tandem : Circle led the gains, followed by Coinbase (+6%), BitGo (+10%), and Robinhood (+4%) .
- USDC Stable : Price pegged to $1 (closing price 0.9997-0.9998 from May 2nd to May 7th), with no unusual fluctuations, reflecting its "stablecoin" nature. (CoinGecko)
- Sentiment : High Twitter activity (22,000 views), with Circle seen as the "leading stablecoin," and YTD contributing 3% to account gains. X
| index | Current value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| CRCL target price | $136.56 | +16% upside (TipRanks, Neutral Buy) TipRanks |
| Polymarket | 70% will pass within the year | Act Catalyst X |
Risks and Outlook
Positive : The enactment of the bill and the DTCC will reshape Circle's valuation (payment infrastructure), and USDC may take market share from Tether.
risk :
- Banking sector rebounds (ABA sends letter to OCC opposing "economic equivalence" rewards). | Risks | Severity | Details | |------|--------|------| | Bill delay | High | May election disruption, markup uncertain, CryptoSlate | | Competition | Medium | Tether/PayPal, rate cuts compressing spreads | | Valuation | Medium | High volatility, analysts cautious |
Outlook : Short-term focus is on the 5/11 markup; if CRCL is passed, it may continue to rise (target $136); the baseline is expected to hold at $121. Long-term outlook is positive for the shift in stablecoin payment paradigms, but this needs to be validated by legislation. (Google Finance)
Data limitations : Stock price as of 5/6 (currently early 5/7), USDC on-chain streaming data is unavailable (CryptoQuant does not support it). All data is UTC fresh and has no >5% conflicts.