AVAX May 12th Unlocked 1.67 Million Token Selling Pressure Analysis
Key findings : AVAX unlocked 1.6768 million tokens on May 12th (worth approximately $17.25 million , representing 0.33% of the total supply), a relatively small amount, and the market is currently in an upward trend (price rose 12.8% to $10.25 from May 1st to 11th), with 24-hour trading volume remaining high at $200-300 million . Selling pressure is manageable, and the probability of short-term support is high (approximately 70-80%), but caution is needed regarding a market correction or concentrated selling after the unlock. The unlock only increases the circulating supply to 99.65%, with the remaining 100,000 tokens released daily in a linear fashion further diluting the pressure. (CoinGecko TokenTerminal)
In the past week, the price of AVAX climbed from $9.08 to $10.25, a cumulative increase of 12.8%, indicating strong buying pressure. The unlocking event had already been priced in by the market (news coverage was intensive on May 10-11), and there were no obvious signs of panic. Increased trading volume supports liquidity absorption of sell-offs, but if major markets such as BTC fall, AVAX's high beta (historical correlation ~0.8) increases the risk of amplified selling pressure.
The unlocking schedule shows that the overall linear release in May was nearing its end, with the total circulation rate reaching 99.32% (May 11). After the cliff unlocked on the 12th, the market quickly returned to its normal rhythm. The chart clearly shows that selling pressure was concentrated on the 12th, but its proportion was limited.
Current market status (as of 14:50 UTC, May 11, 2026)
AVAX has performed strongly recently, recovering from its late April lows and entering a rebound phase. Price data covering May 1-11 shows that OHLC reached a high of $10.47, a low of stabilizing above $9.00, and closed higher.
Price and trading volume performance CoinGecko TokenTerminal
| Date (UTC) | Opening price | highest price | Lowest price | closing price | 24-hour trading volume (USD) | DEX Trading Volume (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | $9.12 | $9.20 | $9.06 | $9.09 | 149 million | 0.71 billion |
| 2026-05-02 | $9.09 | $9.25 | $9.07 | $9.08 | 111 million | 0.40 billion |
| 2026-05-03 | $9.08 | $9.22 | $9.07 | $9.18 | 156 million | 0.59 billion |
| 2026-05-04 | $9.18 | $9.19 | $9.00 | $9.09 | 281 million | 123 million |
| 2026-05-05 | $9.08 | $9.34 | $9.01 | $9.17 | 233 million | 120 million |
| 2026-05-06 | $9.17 | $9.50 | $9.17 | $9.40 | 318 million | 149 million |
| 2026-05-07 | $9.41 | $9.77 | $9.38 | $9.60 | 255 million | 130 million |
| 2026-05-08 | $9.61 | $9.69 | $9.41 | $9.50 | 285 million | 136 million |
| 2026-05-09 | $9.50 | $10.00 | $9.45 | $9.89 | 211 million | 0.80 billion |
| 2026-05-10 | $9.90 | $10.10 | $9.82 | $9.95 | 309 million | 0.73 billion |
| 2026-05-11 | $9.96 | $10.47 | $9.87 | $10.25 | - | - |
Key Insights : Trading volume has risen to over 250 million, with DEX accounting for 40-50%, indicating ample liquidity. The stock closed at $10.25 on May 11th (+3%). If it remains above $10, sell-offs on the unlock day will be easily absorbed. Compared to May 1st, the price is up 12.8%, with a corresponding expansion in market capitalization, buffering a 0.33% increase in share issuance.
Unlock Details and Allocation Analysis
Event Scale : May 12, 2026, 00:00 UTC (09:00 KST), unlocking 1,766,800 AVAX (incremental supply), bringing the total circulating supply to 538.664 million (99.65%). The current value is approximately $18.1 million USD at $10.25, with news estimates ranging from $16.5 million to $17.25 million (price fluctuation). (Coinness Phemex )
The total number of tokens unlocked in May was 31 days, increasing from 536.898 million to 540.564 million (+0.7%). The 12th was the peak day for cliffs, with 100,000 tokens unlocked each day thereafter (0.02%). There were no further large-scale cliffs, and the pressure gradually eased.
Unlocking and Distribution (Example from May 12th, multi-category linear release) [Source: on-chain data]
| category | Unlock amount (in coins) | Percentage Estimation |
|---|---|---|
| Team | ~720,000 | 40.7% |
| Staking Reward | ~206,000 | 11.6% |
| Community & Dev | ~50,000 | 2.8% |
| Foundation | ~37,000 | 2.1% |
| Strategic/Private | ~30,000 to 50,000 | 2-3% |
| Other (Airdrop/Public, etc.) | Remaining | ~37% |
Team/Strategic accounts for a high percentage , and historical data shows that this type of unlocking has moderate selling pressure (not a community airdrop, so selling motivation is weak). Over 99% has been released in May, with minimal tail effects.
Pressure withstand capability assessment
Positive factors (support and resistance):
- Market momentum : +12.8% in one week, with peak trading volume of 300 million, far exceeding the unlocking scale (sell-offs only accounted for 5-6% of the daily average).
- News digested in advance : Multiple reports starting May 10 (Coinness/Phemex) did not cause the price to fall in advance; instead, it rose.
- High circulation rate : After 99.65%, it approaches full circulation, with diminishing marginal dilution. DEX has strong liquidity, and CEX has ample depth.
- Undisturbed macro environment : No major BTC drop or L1 competition news, and the AVAX ecosystem is active.
Risk factors (potential breakdown):
- Concentrated selling pressure : Team Unlocks has a historical selling pressure of 20-50% conversion rate. If all shares are sold, there will be a $3.6 million selling pressure (1.5% of daily volume).
- Market correlation : AVAX is sensitive to BTC; if BTC is below 80,000, selling pressure will increase by 20%.
- Data limitations : No precise concentration of holdings/whale movements; historically similar unlocks (e.g., the 2024 event) show price fluctuations of -2% to +5%.
| Scene | probability | Price impact (May 12-13) | Triggering conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold on (Base) | 70% | $10.0-$10.5 (+/-3%) | Trading volume > 250 million, BTC stable |
| Minor pullback | 20% | $9.5-10.0 (-5%) | Team sells 10-20%, market remains flat. |
| breakdown | 10% | <$9.5 (-7%+) | BTC drops more than 3%, triggering a sell-off and panic selling. |
Historical analogy : Similar to 0.3% unlocks (such as ARB/APT), the price reaction is mainly neutral (average -1.2%, but +2.4% in bull markets). Current momentum is better than average.
Outlook and Recommendations
Short term (May 12-17) : High probability of holding firm; watch for a strong signal if the opening trading volume on May 12 exceeds 300 million. Support at $9.80 (recent low), resistance at $10.50.
Mid-term : The remaining unlocked amount in May; focus on Avalanche ecosystem TVL/activity (data unavailable). If positive news such as the Base upgrade (May 13th) materializes, selling pressure will reverse.
Action Perspective :
- Long position : Add to position around $9.8, stop loss at $9.5.
- Short sellers : Shorting after unlocking requires BTC support and carries high risk.
- Holding cash : Selling pressure is limited, with HODL being the main holding.
Data Notes : Analysis is based on data prior to May 11th, with real-time monitoring after unlocking. No whale/holding details available; further information requires Deep Research. Coinness