Okay, bare with me here...
I'm going to make this two posts, so read the comments.
In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell below the AVWAPs from the December 2018 and March 2020 lows.
After breaking below each level, price even used each of them as resistance!

Twitter

The release of this new regulation marks a historic leap in the attitude of Chinese regulators towards virtual assets, shifting from a "complete ban" to a "combination of restriction and guidance."

Article Author & Source: Guofeng Law Firm On February 6, 2026, the "Notice on Further Preventing and Handling Risks Related to Virtual Currencies" (Yinfa [2026] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 42"), jointly issued by eight ministries led by the People's Bank of China, and the "Regulatory Guidelines on the Issuance of Asset-Backed Securities Tokens Overseas by Domestic Assets" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines") simultaneously issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, have triggered significant reactions in the legal and financial circles...

Breaking News! The Year of China's RWA: A Compliant Channel Opens for Trillions of Yuan in Domestic Assets to Go Global

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote that the recent Bitcoin crash may stem from traders' concerns about IBIT (BlackRock) […]
The article, "Arthur Hayes Speculates on BTC Crash Cause: 'Institutional Hedging Operations': IBIT Options Explode $900 Million," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Arthur Hayes speculates that the reason for the BTC crash is "institutional hedging operations": IBIT options saw a surge of $900 million.

Unusual trading in BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has led traders to speculate that this week’s sharp Bitcoin drop may have been triggered by one or more Hong Kong–based hedge ...

Bitcoin Selloff Sparks Hedge Fund Speculation Around BlackRock ETF

Those two AVWAPs are currently measured at:
🔴 2018 bear market low AVWAP = $35.3k
🔵 2020 bear market low AVWAP = $40.1k
But I want to focus also on the 2022 bear market low AVWAP, if we're going to use past bear markets as key levels...
🟢 2022 bear market low AVWAP = $55.3k

I think it is highly HIGHLY unlikely that BTC will trade between $35k-$40k (though I won't rule it out), but I think it's a quite probable to retest & fall below the AVWAP from the 2022 lows at $55k.
We're "only" -29.5% away.
That would be a drawdown of -56% from ATHs.