The most important lesson I learned from the last cycle is not to go against the cycle. There is no super cycle, and don't blindly believe in the big shots. In every cycle, several big shots are sacrificed. After reviewing the past few days, I realized that the current bear market is basically following the same pattern as the last one. Last cycle (May 2022): $30,000 was considered a solid bottom for the supercycle at the time, as it was the starting point after the May 19, 2021 crash and also the support level of the 120-week moving average. I vividly remember that when the price broke below $30,000, the VIX (fear index) was already below 10, and many buy the dips hunters believed the price had bottomed out or was due for a rebound. Current cycle (February 2026): $80,000, which was once a strong support level, has now become a strong resistance level at the weekly MA120. $80,000 is also the cost price for Bitcoin mining companies. The current price of $76,000 is like a brief struggle after the previous drop below $30,000. The market may very well have another move that completely shatters confidence, such as touching the top of the previous cycle at $69,000. If the price falls below $70,000, it will trigger even larger-scale stop-loss and liquidation orders, potentially surpassing the record-breaking trading volume of November 2025. Without extreme panic, rebounds are often just traps for bulls. In cyclical markets, never let emotions sway you. In extreme trending markets, sentiment indicators can become distorted. A fear index of 10 indicates that retail investors are in despair, but major players may be using this despair to conduct one last deep correction. Trend lines are more direct than any other indicator; as long as the price remains below the 120-day moving average (MA120), all upward movements are merely rebounds, not reversals. Bitcoin has been hitting new lows in recent days, and looking back at the previous cycle, the expected rebound after a significant drop with high volume was 20%, as seen in the move from $26,700 to $32,399. Based on the current situation, only a break below $70,000 would trigger a massive volume surge, with the expected rebound reaching just above the weekly MA120, around $80,000, representing a potential 15% increase. Additionally, based on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, it should bottom out in November or December. What will the price be then? 70,000? 60,000? Or even lower?

The current price situation is very similar to the last round when prices reached 30,000.

Yes, the weekly charts are almost identical, and the weak rebounds are the same too.