Super Bowl LX is in 2 days If you’re trading NFL markets, platform choice matters. We analyzed 282 games to compare pricing speed, volatility, and liquidity on Kalshi vs Polymarket Faster pricing may not mean deeper liquidity🧵

Live shocks drive changes in belief instantly reflected in pricing. Possession and scoring push prices up, while turnovers instantly trigger reversals—an effect that is especially visible late in close games. However, the platforms react at different speeds. With the 3-second delay on market orders in effect on Polymarket, Kalshi moves first ~80% of the time, leading Polymarket by a median of ~7 seconds!

But faster pricing ≠ deeper liquidity Using a Kyle-style price impact measure, we find Polymarket prices are harder to move. On a typical NFL game, it takes ~3–4× more notional to push Polymarket prices the same amount over 60s. So: Kalshi = faster reaction Polymarket = more concentrated liquidity

So which platform should you trade for the SuperBowl this weekend? SEA leads NE at ~68% implied odds on prediction markets right now. So for a game that looks one-sided: • Kalshi tends to react first on sudden news like turnovers • Polymarket tends to move more smoothly on heavy flow If this game tightens late → Kalshi’s speed matters more If SEA stays in control → Polymarket’s depth helps

Full data, methodology, charts, and full breakdown at the link below 👇