Bitcoin has now dropped 50% in the last 120 days, from $126k to $62.5k. This dump started with the October 10th flash crash.
Gold hit new ATHs, stocks hit new ATHs, but crypto has stopped reacting to any good news since 10/10.
Something huge broke that day, and until it’s fixed, crypto won’t recover.
Everyone knows it wasn’t a normal crash, so we really need to hold those responsible for 10/10 accountable if we want crypto to bounce back.

What is happening in crypto?
Since October 10th, crypto markets are now down -50%, erasing $2.2 TRILLION worth of market cap.
Bitcoin has officially erased ALL of its post-election rally, now down -10% since Trump's election.
Why is it crashing? Let us explain.
(a thread)

The Kobeissi Letter

Twitter

Author | Jeff Park (Chief Information Officer, Bitwise)
Compiled by Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina)
Translator | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)
Editor's Note: On February 5th, the cryptocurrency market experienced another sharp drop, with over $2.6 billion liquidated in 24 hours. Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $60,000, but the market seems to lack a clear consensus on the causes of this decline. Jeff Park, CIO of Bitwise, offers a new analytical framework from the perspective of options and hedging mechanisms. [...]

The Black Swan Event Was Actually This: The Real Reason for the Recent Bitcoin Crash

Author | Jeff Park (Chief Information Officer, Bitwise)
Compiled by Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina)
Translator | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)
Editor's Note: On February 5th, the cryptocurrency market experienced another crash, with over $2.6 billion liquidated in 24 hours. Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $60,000, but the market seems to lack a clear consensus on the causes of this decline. Bitwise CIO Jeff Park offers a new analytical framework from the perspective of options and hedging mechanisms.
...

The release of this new regulation marks a historic leap in the attitude of Chinese regulators towards virtual assets, shifting from a "complete ban" to a "combination of restriction and guidance."

Article Author & Source: Guofeng Law Firm On February 6, 2026, the "Notice on Further Preventing and Handling Risks Related to Virtual Currencies" (Yinfa [2026] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 42"), jointly issued by eight ministries led by the People's Bank of China, and the "Regulatory Guidelines on the Issuance of Asset-Backed Securities Tokens Overseas by Domestic Assets" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines") simultaneously issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, have triggered significant reactions in the legal and financial circles...

Breaking News! The Year of China's RWA: A Compliant Channel Opens for Trillions of Yuan in Domestic Assets to Go Global

50%+ drawdowns in Bitcoin are not new, but they always catch the market off-guard.
Be greedy when others are fearful.

Or... crypto just got ahead of itself. $126k BTC was pricing in perfect execution of every bullish catalyst. Reality caught up. The "something broke" narrative feels like cope for a market that was overextended.