[US Stocks on February 6th] They've rebounded! Now there are three options: buy the dips, sell the "rip," or stay on the sidelines with cash... My choice is the second one, sell the rip. Because I believe this wave of "deleveraging" decline truly originated from the Asian market (not from Warsh's appointment). There's been "doubt" in the Asian market! But it hasn't truly declined yet. Once the Asian market starts to decline, US stocks will begin a real pullback. The Asian market mainly refers to Japan and South Korea.

I believe that both Japan and South Korea will move from a phase of "doubt" to a phase of "decline" in the near future. The South Korean market is facing a situation where the surge is unsustainable, while the Japanese market is facing a situation where "selling at the peak led to a major victory for Sanae." (2)

My own portfolio arrangement is planned to be divided into three parts: First, I will resolutely long on government bonds $tlt. On the one hand, I believe that once the US stock market declines, some funds will enter the safe haven; on the other hand, I believe that the "reflation" narrative of the previous period is coming to an end (3).

Second, the short position: (1) Short South Korea and short chips are essentially short memory modules. (2) Short commodities (preliminary consideration), and possibly also short metal and mineral products. (3) Short so-called "defensive stocks" that are actually overvalued: Walmart and Apple. (4)

Third, the bullish side: Currently, the only stock with the strongest bullish conviction for a "long-term" position is $nvo (5).

In summary, my portfolio allocation is roughly as follows: 10-20% long on government bonds, 50-60% short, 10-20% long bonds, and 0-20% cash. This is a relatively aggressive "sell the rip" swing trading strategy. (end)