1. The bear thesis might be invalid now: Previously, my subjective view was that, due to changes in participants, capital, and fundamentals, Bitcoin might not see another deep bear cycle like the past four years (70-80% drawdown), and I was expecting a 40-50% correction. For the 15-126 retrace, my ultimate support was at 70,000. This level was: 1) Around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of 15-126, 2) The upper bound of the 2024 consolidation range, 3) The previous cycle’s ATH. Now, this level got nuked with zero resistance—no matter the reason, a break is a break. It was smooth, no hesitation. So, the previous assumption is invalid. 2. Comparing with the last bear market: 1) In the last bear (June-August 2022), the weekly MACD already flipped green during the bounce, and the subsequent drops were pure bearish divergences. But looking at the weekly MACD now, the odds of turning green during this bounce are very low. 2) If we “carve a mark on the boat to find the sword” (刻舟求剑, meaning sticking to old patterns blindly), we might be at a similar point now. 3) Of course, each cycle gets stronger. Last time, BTC dumped 77% from top to bottom. If we shave off 10-15% this time, we’re looking at a 67-70% drawdown, meaning the bottom for this bear could be in the 40-50k range. 4) Structurally, this dump still looks incomplete in the short term. 3. Strategy changes: 1) If you’re wrong, admit it and take the L—basic trader discipline. 2) After this bounce, I’m considering two plays, still undecided: one is to ape into ETH—since ETH underperformed this round, maybe it’ll outperform next cycle. Stack more ETH, go full ETH-denom. But if BTC drops further, the idea that $1400 was ETH’s wave 3.1 bottom might get wrecked, and the real ceiling is already well-known—Tom Lee’s cost basis. The other option is to rotate ETH into BTC, stack sats instead. Can’t go wrong with more BTC, and it feels much safer to hold. Right now, I’m leaning toward the second option—after all, Old Xu said if you don’t have 10 BTC, you’re not even invited to dinner next time. Time to grind. 3) The bear market is already in its second half, or at least the latter part of the first half. Technically, there’s likely one more leg down, and it’s more probable we break the previous low than double bottom. 4) In the short term, I’ll try to catch as much of this bounce as possible (80%), then ride out the next leg down, and finally go all in for the next big move.