这轮牛市其实7月底BTC主力就开始派发了，看发帖和提醒时间，比之前提前了一个季度结束了，那么下轮行情开始可能就要提前一个季度开始，所以下轮大行情有可能今年秋季就开始了，慢慢等好的机会吧这和@Murphychen888的看法也很接近。

周期变快了！
如果你还在用过往经验来“刻”本轮熊底将在2026年Q4期间出现，那么同样以“4年牛熊周期论”为基础的玄学指标 ——“三线合一” 告诉我们：周期正在变快。
截止2月5日，MVRV创下了本轮周期的最低点1.13，相比与2016周期（蓝线）和2020周期（绿线）出现同样位置时，分别提前了2个月和4个月。

Murphy

Twitter

In fact, the major players in BTC started distributing their holdings at the end of July. Judging from the posting and notification times, this bull market ended a quarter earlier than before. Therefore, the next round of market activity may start a quarter earlier, so the next big bull market may start this fall. Let's wait patiently for the right opportunity. This view is also very similar to that of @Murphychen888.

Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has announced a 20-year prison sentence for Daren Li, 42, for his involvement in a global cryptocurrency investment scam. Notably, the sentence was...

The ringleader of a cryptocurrency scam worth approximately $74 million has been sentenced to 20 years in prison.

MegaETH officially launched its mainnet with the goal of achieving 50,000 TPS and a Block Time of 10 milliseconds, deploying over 50 dapps from day one.
MegaETH launches mainnet, aiming for 50,000 TPS and a Block Time of 10 million...

MegaETH launches mainnet, aiming for 50,000 TPS and a Block Time of 10 milliseconds.

24年就开始了我好像看过链上数据 24年就开始往CEX里转BTC。7月的时候已经是ETF那边的人在卖了。

I think it started in 2024; I think I've seen some on-chain data. BTC was being transferred to CEXs starting in 2024. By July, it was ETFs that were selling.