Bitcoin and Ethereum are now far from their respective all-time highs, sliding further on Thursday as macro uncertainty washes over all markets.
Amid falling prices, more bullish predictors have ceded...

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Bitcoin and Ethereum are now far from their respective all-time highs, sliding further on Thursday as macro uncertainty washes over all markets.
<adv/>Amid falling prices, more bullish predictors have ceded positions to bears as odds rise that the leading crypto assets are more likely to “dump” rather than “pump.” 
<adv/>Below, we’ll look at shifts in the top markets this week, which include the next stops for BTC and ETH, and whether or not another Fed rate cut is coming this year. 
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)
<h2>Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $115K or dump to $85K</h2>
Market Open: November 5 Market Close: Open until resolution Volume: $90.2K Link: See the latest odds on the "Bitcoin's next move: Pump to $115K or dump to $85K?" market on Myriad
Only a few weeks ago, Bitcoin had created a new all-time high above $126,000—but the largest cryptocurrency by market cap continued reeling on Thursday, sliding now more than 30% from that high mark to below $87,000 for the first time since April.
The dip comes amid rapidly declining hopes of a December rate cut, pulling down nearly all crypto assets and traditional indices at the same time. 
As a result of further falling, predictors on Myriad have become further entrenched in their bearish beliefs, now giving Bitcoin a 80% chance of hitting $85,000 sooner than it can pump to $115,000. 
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That marks a 34% slide towards the bearish side in the last week, as BTC has fallen around 12%—now just 2.4% away from the $85,000 mark. 
With odds of a $115,000 move falling to just 22%, those brave enough to act as BTC bulls stand to gain more than 4x their money on Myriad should the asset turn around without hitting $85,000. Yet, holders of spot BTC will only gain around 31% if BTC makes the move. 
What’s Next? Odds have shifted towards no Fed rate cut in December, but should a cut come, it could provide a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin, further shaking the Myriad market. 
<h2>Ethereum’s next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K?</h2>
Market Open: November 5 Market Close: Open until resolution Volume: $88.9K Link: See the latest odds on the "Ethereum next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K"   market on Myriad
Ethereum has not been spared alongside Bitcoin’s downtrend. 
The second-largest crypto asset by market cap is down 10% on the week and 27% on the month, now trading below $3,000 for the first time since July. 
That downtrend has led predictors on Myriad to favor ETH dumping to $2,500 sooner than it can rise to reclaim a mark of $4,000.
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As of Thursday afternoon, predictors give the $2,500 dip around 70% odds of happening first. That’s despite the fact that briefly on Wednesday morning, ETH’s rise to $4,000 was still the favorite. 
Overall, odds have shifted dramatically over the last week, jumping nearly 30% to favor the bearish marker.
BitMine’s Tom Lee continues to call for an ETH supercycle as his leading Ethereum treasury firm snatches up more of Ethereum’s circulating supply, but the market is not following suit.
Perhaps some of that can be attributed to the flimsiness of ETH whales, who are more likely to part with their tokens than those holding Bitcoin, according to a recent Glassnode report.
ETH must fall another 13% to hit the $2,500 mark, as it now trades at $2,825—almost 42% off its all-time high of $4,946 set in August.
What’s Next? Liquidations are piling up as pessimism takes hold once more. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s next move may be subject to a final yearly rate cut decision. 
<h2>Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?</h2>
Market Open: August 31  Market Close: December 29  Volume: $43.1K Link: See the latest odds on the "Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?"  market on Myriad
When the Fed cut rates in October, dropping interest rates another 25 bps, markets momentarily jumped. But shortly thereafter, Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbled amid the news, particularly given Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message that another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion.”
With data blackouts hanging over important macroeconomic reports and the government still getting back to normal after the longest U.S. shutdown in history, traders are acting like there may already be a conclusion: no rate cut ahead.
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Given the Fed has already changed rates lower twice, no December rate cut would resolve Myriad’s “exactly two Fed rate changes” market to “yes,” the less likely side for the better part of the market’s existence. 
But in recent weeks, things have shifted completely. 
Since November 1, odds of “yes,” which signals no rate cut, have doubled from 31% to 62% at the time of writing. That nearly matches a similar Myriad market, which asks specifically whether a December rate cut of 25bps is on the table—and predictors think there is a 66% chance that it won't happen.
Thanks to the rising odds of no cut, the markets are “recalibrating,” an analyst at Bitwise told Decrypt on Monday. 
The recalibration extends fully to rate cut odds markets as well, with odds of “yes” or “exactly two cuts,” jumping 43% in the last month.
What’s Next? The next FOMC meeting will be held on December 9 and 10. 

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Myriad Moves: Markets Grow Bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum as Rate Cut Odds Tumble

比特币和以太坊目前远低于各自的历史高点，周四进一步下跌，宏观经济不确定性笼罩着所有市场。

在价格下跌之际，更多看涨的预测者也已放弃……

<div><div>比特币和以太坊目前距离各自的历史高点还很远，周四随著宏观经济不确定性笼罩所有市场，它们进一步下跌。<adv/>随著价格下跌，看涨的预测者纷纷让位给看跌者，因为领先的加密资产更有可能「暴跌」而不是「暴涨」。<adv/>下面，我们将分析本周主要市场的变化，包括BTC和ETH的下一步走势，以及联准会今年是否会再次降息。 （免责声明：Myriad Markets 是 Decrypt 母公司 Dastan 的产品。）<h2>比特币的下一步走势：要么飙升至 11.5 万美元，要么暴跌至 8.5 万美元。</h2>市集开盘： 11月5日 市场收盘：持续开放至结算 成交额： 90.2万美元 连结：在 Myriad 上查看「比特币下一步走势：飙升至 11.5 万美元还是暴跌至 8.5 万美元？」市场的最新赔率就在几周前，比特币创下了超过 126,000 美元的历史新高——但市值最大的加密货币周四继续下跌，从高点下跌超过 30%，跌破 87,000 美元，这是自 4 月以来的首次跌破该价位。此次下跌正值市场对 12 月降息的希望迅速下降之际，几乎所有加密资产和传统指数同时下跌。由于比特币价格进一步下跌，Myriad 上的预测者们更加坚定了看跌的观点，现在他们认为比特币有 80% 的机率会先跌至 85,000 美元，而不是涨至 115,000 美元。<div><iframe/></div>这标志著BTC在过去一周下跌了 34%，跌幅达 12% 左右，目前距离 85,000 美元大关仅差 2.4%。比特币价格突破 11.5 万美元的机率已降至 22%，这意味著，如果比特币价格在未触及 8.5 万美元之前反弹，那些敢于做多BTC的人在 Myriad 平台上的收益将超过其投资额的 4 倍。然而，如果BTC价格真的突破 11.5 万美元，现货BTC持有者只能获得约 31% 的收益。接下来会发生什么事？目前市场普遍认为联准会12月不会降息，但如果降息真的发生，可能会成为比特币的短期催化剂，进一步撼动Myriad市场。<h2>以太币的下一步走势：飙升至 4000 美元还是暴跌至 2500 美元？</h2>市集开盘： 11月5日 市场收盘：持续开放至结算 成交额： 88.9万美元 连结：在 Myriad查看「以太坊下一步走势：飙升至 4000 美元还是暴跌至 2500 美元」市场的最新赔率以太坊也未能幸免于比特币的下跌趋势。市值排名第二的加密资产本周下跌 10%，本月下跌 27%，目前交易价格自 7 月以来首次跌破 3,000 美元。这种下跌趋势导致 Myriad 上的预测者认为， ETH会很快跌至 2500 美元，而不是反弹回 4000 美元大关。<div><iframe/></div>截至周四下午，预测机构认为以太币价格先跌至 2500 美元的机率约为 70%。尽管以太坊价格在周三上午一度上涨至 4000 美元，成为最热门的下跌方向。总体而言，过去一周赔率发生了巨大变化，下跌赔率上升了近 30%。 BitMine 的 Tom Lee 继续呼吁ETH超级周期，他旗下的以太坊金库公司正在大量收购以太坊的流通供应量，但市场并未跟进。根据Glassnode最近的报告，这或许部分归因于ETH巨鲸的脆弱性，他们比持有比特币的人更容易出售自己的代币。 ETH必须再下跌 13% 才能达到 2500 美元的关口，因为它目前的交易价格为 2825 美元——比 8 月创下的历史最高价 4946 美元下跌了近 42%。接下来会发生什么事？随著悲观情绪再次蔓延，清算潮不断涌现。与比特币一样，以太坊的下一步走势可能取决于最终的年度降息决定。<h2> 2025年联准会将进行两次利率调整？</h2>市集开盘： 8月31日 市集收盘： 12月29日 成交额： 43,100美元 连结：在 Myriad 上查看「2025 年联准会利率将调整两次？」市场的最新赔率联准会10月降息25个基点后，市场一度上涨。但随后比特币和以太坊价格应声下跌，尤其是考虑到联准会主席鲍威尔表示12月再次降息「并非板上钉钉」。由于重要的宏观经济报告仍受资料封锁的影响，且美国政府在经历了历史上最长的停摆后仍在恢复正常，交易员们似乎已经得出结论：不会降息。<div><iframe/></div>鉴于美联储已经两次下调利率，如果 12 月不降息，Myriad 的“美联储恰好两次降息”市场将变为“是”，而“是”在市场存在的大部分时间里都是不太可能发生的一方。但最近几周，情况发生了彻底的变化。自11月1日以来，表示「不会降息」的机率「是」已翻了一番，从31%升至撰写本文时的62%。这与Myriad市场的结果几乎一致，该市场专门询问12月降息25个基点的可能性——预测者认为降息不发生的机率为66%。 Bitwise 的一位分析师周一告诉Decrypt ，由于不减薪的可能性越来越大，市场正在「重新调整」 。重新调整也完全延伸到了降息机率市场，「是」或「恰好降息两次」的机率在过去一个月跃升了 43%。接下来会发生什么事？下一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将于12月9日和10日举行。</div></div>

市场走势多变：随着降息可能性骤降，市场对比特币和以太坊的看法愈发悲观

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比特币价格跌至 87,000镁，加密货币市场持续暴跌

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