Crypto traders debate whether 2025’s drawdown is a new bear market or a late-cycle reset as QE, global rate cuts, and the U.S. CLARITY Act shape the 2026 outlook.​
Summary
Bitcoin slipped from key hig...

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<p>Crypto traders debate whether 2025’s drawdown is a new bear market or a late-cycle reset as QE, global rate cuts, and the U.S. CLARITY Act shape the 2026 outlook.​</p>
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<div><span>Summary</span></div>
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<li>Bitcoin slipped from key highs and broke major support as most large-cap coins posted yearly losses, while only privacy plays like Monero, Zcash and BNB stayed green.​</li>
<li>Macro divergence, from U.S./UK rate cuts to Japan’s hikes and renewed geopolitical risk, weighs on sentiment even as growing stablecoin supply signals latent liquidity.<a href="https://crypto.news/wp/wp-admin/post-new.php">​</a>
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<li>The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, which could split SEC/CFTC oversight and end “regulation by enforcement,” is set for Senate review in early 2026.</li>
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<p>Cryptocurrency traders and investors are questioning whether the digital asset market has entered a bear phase as 2025 draws to a close, amid ongoing price declines and speculation about potential regulatory changes and monetary policy shifts in 2026.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin traded below recent highs following the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data and an interest rate cut from the Bank of England. The combined cryptocurrency market capitalization retreated near a key trillion-dollar threshold before recovering slightly, according to market data.</p>
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<p>Among the top 50 digital assets with a full year of price history, only privacy tokens Zcash and Monero, along with Binance’s BNB token, posted positive returns for the year, according to price data. Bitcoin declined on a year-to-date basis, while numerous other major cryptocurrencies recorded significant losses over the same period.</p>
<p>In the fourth quarter, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below a major price level and has traded in a range beneath that threshold. The decline broke a key support level, prompting several market analysts to adopt bearish mid-term outlooks.</p>
<p>Peter Brandt, a market analyst, forecast a potential severe decline in 2026, stating that each cryptocurrency bull run has produced diminishing returns and that previous parabolic advances have experienced substantial corrections. Brandt argued that the current parabolic advance has been violated and projected that a decline from the all-time high could bring prices to significantly lower levels.</p>
<h2>FED pivots on crypto</h2>
<p>While the United States and United Kingdom have implemented interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan raised its rates to the highest levels in five years. The divergent monetary policies have added uncertainty to global markets, with potential implications for the yen carry trade, a strategy where traders borrow yen at low interest rates to purchase higher-yielding assets in other currencies.</p>
<p>Global economic uncertainty, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and emerging tensions between the United States and Venezuela represent additional factors affecting cryptocurrency market sentiment, according to market observers.</p>
<p>The stablecoin market capitalization has grown significantly over the past twelve months, according to market data, indicating available liquidity within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.</p>
<p>The United States implemented several interest rate cuts in 2025, and market pricing currently anticipates another reduction, which would maintain Federal Reserve quantitative easing policies. Quantitative easing typically increases liquidity by expanding the money supply and injecting capital into the financial system. Historical data shows that periods of significant quantitative easing, including during the COVID-19 pandemic, have coincided with cryptocurrency bull runs.</p>
<p>Industry leaders, including Binance’s founder, have expressed support for a potential supercycle thesis, suggesting that 2026 could mark the beginning of a new quantitative easing cycle. Some market participants argue that 2025 should not be characterized as a bull run due to the year’s quantitative tightening policies.</p>
<p>The White House confirmed that the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act will be considered by the Senate as early as January, according to an official statement. The legislation will enter the committee stage, where amendments and finalization occur before floor consideration. Early indications suggest the bill may pass, according to political observers.</p>
<p>The CLARITY Act aims to establish clear distinctions between tokens classified as securities and those classified as commodities, dividing regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If enacted, the legislation would provide cryptocurrency companies in the United States with a more transparent regulatory framework, replacing the current system of regulation through litigation.</p>
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Crypto bulls face late-cycle shakeout as 2026 liquidity bets grow

加密货币交易员们正在争论，2025年的下跌究竟是新的熊市，还是周期末期的重置，因为量化宽松政策、全球降息以及美国的《CLARITY法案》正在影响著2026年的前景。

摘要

比特币从关键高点下跌…

<div><div><p>加密货币交易员们正在争论，2025年的下跌究竟是新的熊市，还是周期末期的重置，因为量化宽松政策、全球降息以及美国的《CLARITY法案》正在影响著2026年的前景。</p><adv/><div><div><span>概括</span></div><div><ul><li>比特币从关键高点回落，跌破主要支撑位，大多数市值较大的加密货币都录得年度亏损，只有Monero、 Zcash和BNB等隐私加密货币保持上涨。</li><li>从美英降息到日本升息以及地缘政治风险再度加剧的宏观经济分化，都对市场情绪构成压力，尽管稳定币供应量的增长表明潜在流动性充裕<a href="https://crypto.news/wp/wp-admin/post-new.php">。</a></li><li> 《数位资产市场透明度法案》可能会拆分美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 和美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 的监管权，并结束“执法监管”，该法案将于 2026 年初提交参议院审查。</li></ul></div></div><p>随著 2025 年即将结束，加密货币交易员和投资者质疑数位资产市场是否已进入熊市阶段，因为价格持续下跌，人们猜测 2026 年可能会出现监管变化和货币政策转变。</p><adv/><div><span>你可能也喜欢：</span> Coinomi 与 N.exchange 合作，提供更快、更可靠的非托管钱包内货币兑换服务</div><p>受美国消费者物价指数数据公布和英国央行降息的影响，比特币交易价格跌破近期高点。市场数据显示，加密货币总市值一度逼近兆美元Threshold，随后略有回升。</p><div><div><iframe/></div></div><p>根据价格数据，在拥有完整年度价格历史记录的前 50 种数位资产中，只有隐私代币Zcash和Monero，以及币安的BNB代币实现了全年正收益。比特币年初至今价格下跌，而其他众多主流加密货币同期也大幅下跌。</p><p>第四季度，比特币（BTC）跌破一个重要的价格水平，并在此Threshold下方波动。这次下跌突破了一个关键支撑位，促使多位市场分析师对比特币的中期走势持悲观态度。</p><p>市场分析师彼得布兰特预测，2026年加密货币价格可能大幅下跌。他指出，每一轮加密货币牛市的收益都在递减，而先前的抛物线式上涨都经历了大幅回档。布兰特认为，目前的抛物线式上涨趋势已经破灭，并预测价格从历史高点回落可能会跌至更低的水平。</p><h2>联准会转向加密货币</h2><p>尽管美国和英国都已实施降息，但日本央行将利率上调至五年来的最高水准。这种货币政策的分歧加剧了全球市场的不确定性，并可能对日圆套利交易产生影响。日圆套利交易是一种交易策略，即交易员以低利率借入日圆，再购买其他货币计价的收益更高的资产。</p><p>市场观察家表示，全球经济的不确定性、乌克兰持续不断的冲突以及美国和委内瑞拉之间日益紧张的局势，都是影响加密货币市场情绪的其他因素。</p><p>市场数据显示，稳定币市值在过去十二个月中显著成长，显示加密货币生态系统内存在流动性。</p><p>美国在2025年实施了多次降息，目前市场预期将再次降息，这将维持联准会的量化宽松政策。量化宽松通常透过扩大货币供应量和向金融体系注入资本来增加流动性。历史数据显示，包括新冠疫情期间在内的多次大规模量化宽松政策，都与加密货币多头市场相符。</p><p>包括币安创始人在内的业界领袖都对潜在的超级周期理论表示支持，认为2026年可能标志著新一轮量化宽松周期的开始。一些市场参与者则认为，由于2025年实施了量化紧缩政策，因此不应将2025年视为多头市场。</p><p>白宫官方声明证实，《数位资产市场透明度法案》（Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act）最快将于明年1月提交参议院审议。该法案将进入委员会阶段，在此阶段进行修订和最终定稿，之后才会提交全体会议审议。政治观察家认为，初步迹象显示该法案有望获得通过。</p><p> 《CLARITY法案》旨在明确区分被归类为证券的代币和被归类为商品的代币，并将监管权分配给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）。如果该法案获得通过，将为美国加密货币公司提供一个更透明的监管框架，取代目前透过诉讼进行监管的模式。</p><div><span>阅读更多：</span> Coinomi 与 N.exchange 合作，提供更快、更可靠的非托管钱包内货币兑换服务</div></div></div>

随著2026年流动性押注的成长，加密货币多头面临周期末期的洗牌。

在加密世界，真正决定胜负的从来不是代码，而是流动性、权力与监管之间的博弈。BUSD 的兴衰，并不是一枚稳定币的血泪史，而是一场关于交易所如何试图“统一天下”的金融战争。
当 BUSD 被推上历史舞台，它承载的不只是合规叙事，更是币安试图用高压手段重塑稳定币秩序的野心——通过强制汇率、合并交易对，把竞争对手的深度直接吞进自己的账本。
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币安霸权兴衰录：从BUSD“大一统”到$U“吞天下”的稳定币战争

来源：Galaxy Research；翻译：金色财经xz
比特币2025年的收官价位预计将与年初水平大体持平。
今年前十个月，加密货币市场经历了一轮真正的看涨浪潮。监管改革持续推进，ETF持续吸纳资金，链上活动也日趋活跃。比特币在10月6日创下126,080美元的历史新高。
然而，市场在狂热情绪后并未迎来期待的突破，取而代之的是轮动、重定价和再平衡。宏观预期的落空、投资叙事的转向、杠杆的爆仓以及巨...

Galaxy：2026年加密市场26大预测

Messari 发布了《2026 年加密趋势报告》（The Crypto Theses 2026），全文对公链、DeFi、AI、DePIN 与 TradFi 等赛道的未来趋势做出预判。在 Messari 的视角中，2026 年将是加密货币从“投机”转向“系统级集成”的关键一年。
文章作者：Messari
文章整理 / 编译：ODIG Invest
Messari 发布了《2026 年加密趋势报告》...