Investment bank TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg says the chances of the U.S. passing its biggest crypto regulation bill, the CLARITY Act, are fading. And it is now becoming increasingly unlikely to pas...

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<p>Investment bank TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg says the chances of the U.S. passing its biggest crypto regulation bill, the CLARITY Act, are fading. And it is now becoming increasingly unlikely to pass this year as political tensions in Washington continue to rise.</p>
<adv/><p>Here are some of the reasons why Jaret Seiberg says so.</p>
<adv/><h2>Why the CLARITY Act Is Becoming Harder to Pass</h2>
<p>TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg warned that the political environment around the bill is becoming increasingly difficult, especially for Democrats.</p>
<p>One of the biggest issues involves the growing pressure to add conflict-of-interest rules that would prevent the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from actively trading cryptocurrencies.</p>
<p>That section could directly affect Trump-linked crypto ventures, including World Liberty Financial, American Bitcoin, and meme coins such as TRUMP and MELANIA.</p>
<p>According to Seiberg, Democrats may now find it harder to support the bill without stricter ethics provisions, while Republicans could become less willing to move the legislation forward if new amendments directly target Trump.</p>
<p>That political divide is now creating uncertainty around whether lawmakers can still pass the bill before the end of the year.</p>
<h2>Trump’s Political Controversies Add More Pressure</h2>
<p>Seiberg also pointed to several recent political developments making the bill even more difficult for Democrats to support publicly.</p>
<p>One issue involves Trump’s recently settled dispute with the IRS. The settlement reportedly created a $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund designed to compensate people claiming they were targeted by government investigations.</p>
<p>The agreement also permanently blocks the IRS from auditing past tax returns tied to Trump, his family, and related companies. Trump reportedly agreed to drop a separate $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS as part of the settlement.</p>
<p>At the same time, government financial disclosures showed nearly 3,600 stock trades were executed on Trump’s behalf during the first three months of 2026. Some trades reportedly aligned with public policy comments made by Trump during that period.</p>
<h2>Prediction Market Odd Drop</h2>
<p>Prediction markets now show mixed expectations around the bill’s future. According to Polymarket, traders currently see roughly 58% odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law by the end of 2026.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, prediction platform Amiom reportedly estimates only a 24% chance of passage before June 30.</p>
<p>Some lawmakers remain optimistic. Tim Scott recently said he expects the crypto market structure bill to eventually pass with bipartisan support.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Cynthia Lummis recently warned that expectations for a near-term breakthrough may be “too optimistic.”</p>

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TD Cowen Analyst Warns CLARITY Act May Not Pass This Year

投资银行TD Cowen分析师Jaret Seiberg表示，美国通过其规模最大的加密货币监管法案——《CLARITY法案》的可能性正在降低。而且，该法案通过的可能性现在越来越小……

<div><div><p>投资银行TD Cowen分析师Jaret Seiberg表示，美国通过其规模最大的加密货币监管法案——《CLARITY法案》的可能性正在降低。随着华盛顿政治紧张局势的持续升级，该法案今年获得通过的可能性也越来越小。</p><adv/><p>以下是 Jaret Seiberg 这么说的部分原因。</p><adv/><h2>为什么《CLARITY法案》越来越难通过</h2><p>TD Cowen 分析师 Jaret Seiberg 警告说，围绕该法案的政治环境正变得越来越艰难，尤其是对民主党人来说。</p><p>最大的问题之一是，要求增加利益冲突规则的压力越来越大，这些规则将阻止总统、副总统和国会议员积极交易加密货币。</p><p>该条款可能会直接影响与特朗普有关的加密货币企业，包括 World Liberty Financial、American Bitcoin 以及 TRUMP 和 MELANIA 等meme币。</p><p>塞伯格表示，如果没有更严格的道德条款，民主党人现在可能更难支持该法案，而如果新的修正案直接针对特朗普，共和党人可能就不太愿意推进该立法。</p><p>目前，这种政治分歧导致人们对立法者能否在年底前通过该法案产生了不确定性。</p><h2>特朗普的政治争议加剧了压力</h2><p>塞伯格还指出，最近的一些政治发展使得民主党人更难公开支持这项法案。</p><p>其中一个问题涉及特朗普最近与美国国税局达成的和解协议。据报道，该和解协议设立了一个17.76亿美元的反武器化基金，旨在补偿那些声称自己成为政府调查目标的人。</p><p>该协议还永久禁止美国国税局审计与特朗普、其家人及相关公司有关的过往纳税申报表。据报道，作为和解协议的一部分，特朗普同意撤销另一起针对美国国税局的100亿美元诉讼。</p><p>与此同时，政府财务披露显示，在2026年的前三个月，有近3600笔股票交易是以特朗普的名义进行的。据报道，其中一些交易与特朗普在此期间发表的公共政策言论相符。</p><h2>预测市场赔率下降</h2><p>目前预测市场对该法案的未来走向看法不一。据Polymarket的数据显示，交易员们目前认为《CLARITY法案》在2026年底前成为法律的概率约为58%。</p><p>与此同时，预测平台Amiom据报道估计，在6月30日之前通过该法案的可能性只有24%。</p><p>一些议员仍然保持乐观。蒂姆·斯科特最近表示，他预计加密货币市场结构法案最终将获得两党支持而获得通过。</p><p>与此同时，辛西娅·卢米斯最近警告说，对近期取得突破的期望可能“过于乐观”。</p></div></div>

TD Cowen分析师警告称，《CLARITY法案》今年可能无法通过

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