Bitcoin and Ethereum are now far from their respective all-time highs, sliding further on Thursday as macro uncertainty washes over all markets.
Amid falling prices, more bullish predictors have ceded...

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Bitcoin and Ethereum are now far from their respective all-time highs, sliding further on Thursday as macro uncertainty washes over all markets.
<adv/>Amid falling prices, more bullish predictors have ceded positions to bears as odds rise that the leading crypto assets are more likely to “dump” rather than “pump.” 
<adv/>Below, we’ll look at shifts in the top markets this week, which include the next stops for BTC and ETH, and whether or not another Fed rate cut is coming this year. 
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)
<h2>Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $115K or dump to $85K</h2>
Market Open: November 5 Market Close: Open until resolution Volume: $90.2K Link: See the latest odds on the "Bitcoin's next move: Pump to $115K or dump to $85K?" market on Myriad
Only a few weeks ago, Bitcoin had created a new all-time high above $126,000—but the largest cryptocurrency by market cap continued reeling on Thursday, sliding now more than 30% from that high mark to below $87,000 for the first time since April.
The dip comes amid rapidly declining hopes of a December rate cut, pulling down nearly all crypto assets and traditional indices at the same time. 
As a result of further falling, predictors on Myriad have become further entrenched in their bearish beliefs, now giving Bitcoin a 80% chance of hitting $85,000 sooner than it can pump to $115,000. 
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That marks a 34% slide towards the bearish side in the last week, as BTC has fallen around 12%—now just 2.4% away from the $85,000 mark. 
With odds of a $115,000 move falling to just 22%, those brave enough to act as BTC bulls stand to gain more than 4x their money on Myriad should the asset turn around without hitting $85,000. Yet, holders of spot BTC will only gain around 31% if BTC makes the move. 
What’s Next? Odds have shifted towards no Fed rate cut in December, but should a cut come, it could provide a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin, further shaking the Myriad market. 
<h2>Ethereum’s next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K?</h2>
Market Open: November 5 Market Close: Open until resolution Volume: $88.9K Link: See the latest odds on the "Ethereum next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K"   market on Myriad
Ethereum has not been spared alongside Bitcoin’s downtrend. 
The second-largest crypto asset by market cap is down 10% on the week and 27% on the month, now trading below $3,000 for the first time since July. 
That downtrend has led predictors on Myriad to favor ETH dumping to $2,500 sooner than it can rise to reclaim a mark of $4,000.
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As of Thursday afternoon, predictors give the $2,500 dip around 70% odds of happening first. That’s despite the fact that briefly on Wednesday morning, ETH’s rise to $4,000 was still the favorite. 
Overall, odds have shifted dramatically over the last week, jumping nearly 30% to favor the bearish marker.
BitMine’s Tom Lee continues to call for an ETH supercycle as his leading Ethereum treasury firm snatches up more of Ethereum’s circulating supply, but the market is not following suit.
Perhaps some of that can be attributed to the flimsiness of ETH whales, who are more likely to part with their tokens than those holding Bitcoin, according to a recent Glassnode report.
ETH must fall another 13% to hit the $2,500 mark, as it now trades at $2,825—almost 42% off its all-time high of $4,946 set in August.
What’s Next? Liquidations are piling up as pessimism takes hold once more. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s next move may be subject to a final yearly rate cut decision. 
<h2>Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?</h2>
Market Open: August 31  Market Close: December 29  Volume: $43.1K Link: See the latest odds on the "Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?"  market on Myriad
When the Fed cut rates in October, dropping interest rates another 25 bps, markets momentarily jumped. But shortly thereafter, Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbled amid the news, particularly given Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message that another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion.”
With data blackouts hanging over important macroeconomic reports and the government still getting back to normal after the longest U.S. shutdown in history, traders are acting like there may already be a conclusion: no rate cut ahead.
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Given the Fed has already changed rates lower twice, no December rate cut would resolve Myriad’s “exactly two Fed rate changes” market to “yes,” the less likely side for the better part of the market’s existence. 
But in recent weeks, things have shifted completely. 
Since November 1, odds of “yes,” which signals no rate cut, have doubled from 31% to 62% at the time of writing. That nearly matches a similar Myriad market, which asks specifically whether a December rate cut of 25bps is on the table—and predictors think there is a 66% chance that it won't happen.
Thanks to the rising odds of no cut, the markets are “recalibrating,” an analyst at Bitwise told Decrypt on Monday. 
The recalibration extends fully to rate cut odds markets as well, with odds of “yes” or “exactly two cuts,” jumping 43% in the last month.
What’s Next? The next FOMC meeting will be held on December 9 and 10. 

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Myriad Moves: Markets Grow Bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum as Rate Cut Odds Tumble

比特幣和以太坊目前遠低於各自的歷史高點，週四進一步下跌，宏觀經濟不確定性籠罩著所有市場。

在價格下跌之際，更多看漲的預測者也已放棄……

<div><div>比特幣和以太坊目前距離各自的歷史高點還很遠，週四隨著宏觀經濟不確定性籠罩所有市場，它們進一步下跌。<adv/>隨著價格下跌，看漲的預測者紛紛讓位給看跌者，因為領先的加密資產更有可能「暴跌」而不是「暴漲」。<adv/>下面，我們將分析本週主要市場的變化，包括BTC和ETH的下一步走勢，以及聯準會今年是否會再次降息。 （免責聲明：Myriad Markets 是 Decrypt 母公司 Dastan 的產品。）<h2>比特幣的下一步走勢：要麼飆升至 11.5 萬美元，要麼暴跌至 8.5 萬美元。</h2>市集開盤： 11月5日 市場收盤：持續開放至結算 成交額： 90.2萬美元 連結：在 Myriad 上查看「比特幣下一步走勢：飆升至 11.5 萬美元還是暴跌至 8.5 萬美元？」市場的最新賠率就在幾週前，比特幣創下了超過 126,000 美元的歷史新高——但市值最大的加密貨幣週四繼續下跌，從高點下跌超過 30%，跌破 87,000 美元，這是自 4 月以來的首次跌破該價位。此次下跌正值市場對 12 月降息的希望迅速下降之際，幾乎所有加密資產和傳統指數同時下跌。由於比特幣價格進一步下跌，Myriad 上的預測者們更加堅定了看跌的觀點，現在他們認為比特幣有 80% 的機率會先跌至 85,000 美元，而不是漲至 115,000 美元。<div><iframe/></div>這標誌著BTC在過去一周下跌了 34%，跌幅達 12% 左右，目前距離 85,000 美元大關僅差 2.4%。比特幣價格突破 11.5 萬美元的機率已降至 22%，這意味著，如果比特幣價格在未觸及 8.5 萬美元之前反彈，那些敢於做多BTC的人在 Myriad 平台上的收益將超過其投資額的 4 倍。然而，如果BTC價格真的突破 11.5 萬美元，現貨BTC持有者只能獲得約 31% 的收益。接下來會發生什麼事？目前市場普遍認為聯準會12月不會降息，但如果降息真的發生，可能會成為比特幣的短期催化劑，進一步撼動Myriad市場。<h2>以太幣的下一步走勢：飆升至 4000 美元還是暴跌至 2500 美元？</h2>市集開盤： 11月5日 市場收盤：持續開放至結算 成交額： 88.9萬美元 連結：在 Myriad查看「以太坊下一步走勢：飆升至 4000 美元還是暴跌至 2500 美元」市場的最新賠率以太坊也未能倖免於比特幣的下跌趨勢。市值排名第二的加密資產本週下跌 10%，本月下跌 27%，目前交易價格自 7 月以來首次跌破 3,000 美元。這種下跌趨勢導致 Myriad 上的預測者認為， ETH會很快跌至 2500 美元，而不是反彈回 4000 美元大關。<div><iframe/></div>截至週四下午，預測機構認為以太幣價格先跌至 2500 美元的機率約為 70%。儘管以太坊價格在週三上午一度上漲至 4000 美元，成為最熱門的下跌方向。總體而言，過去一周賠率發生了巨大變化，下跌賠率上升了近 30%。 BitMine 的 Tom Lee 繼續呼籲ETH超級週期，他旗下的以太坊金庫公司正在大量收購以太坊的流通供應量，但市場並未跟進。根據Glassnode最近的報告，這或許部分歸因於ETH巨鯨的脆弱性，他們比持有比特幣的人更容易出售自己的代幣。 ETH必須再下跌 13% 才能達到 2500 美元的關口，因為它目前的交易價格為 2825 美元——比 8 月創下的歷史最高價 4946 美元下跌了近 42%。接下來會發生什麼事？隨著悲觀情緒再次蔓延，清算潮不斷湧現。與比特幣一樣，以太坊的下一步走勢可能取決於最終的年度降息決定。<h2> 2025年聯準會將進行兩次利率調整？</h2>市集開盤： 8月31日 市集收盤： 12月29日 成交額： 43,100美元 連結：在 Myriad 上查看「2025 年聯準會利率將調整兩次？」市場的最新賠率聯準會10月降息25個基點後，市場一度上漲。但隨後比特幣和以太坊價格應聲下跌，尤其是考慮到聯準會主席鮑威爾表示12月再次降息「並非板上釘釘」。由於重要的宏觀經濟報告仍受資料封鎖的影響，且美國政府在經歷了歷史上最長的停擺後仍在恢復正常，交易員們似乎已經得出結論：不會降息。<div><iframe/></div>鑑於美聯儲已經兩次下調利率，如果 12 月不降息，Myriad 的“美聯儲恰好兩次降息”市場將變為“是”，而“是”在市場存在的大部分時間裡都是不太可能發生的一方。但最近幾週，情況發生了徹底的變化。自11月1日以來，表示「不會降息」的機率「是」已翻了一番，從31%升至撰寫本文時的62%。這與Myriad市場的結果幾乎一致，該市場專門詢問12月降息25個基點的可能性——預測者認為降息不發生的機率為66%。 Bitwise 的一位分析師週一告訴Decrypt ，由於不減薪的可能性越來越大，市場正在「重新調整」 。重新調整也完全延伸到了降息機率市場，「是」或「恰好降息兩次」的機率在過去一個月躍升了 43%。接下來會發生什麼事？下一次聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議將於12月9日和10日舉行。</div></div>

市場走勢多變：隨著降息可能性驟降，市場對比特幣和以太坊的看法愈發悲觀

1849 年，加州淘金熱，無數懷著暴富夢的人湧向美國西部。
德國移民李維·斯特勞斯原本也想加入淘金大軍，但他敏銳地發現了另一個商機：礦工們的褲子經常破損，急需更耐用的工作服。
於是，他用帆布製作了一批牛仔褲，專門賣給淘金工人，從此誕生了一個名為“李維斯”的服裝帝國，而當年那些真正參與淘金的人，絕大多數卻血本無歸。
2024 年 11 月 20 日，英偉達英偉達又一次交出“逆天”的財報。
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由於市場對美聯儲在 12 月份下降的預期持續下降，加密貨幣市場繼續經歷劇烈波動，大多數主要資產價格下跌。

比特幣價格跌至 87,000鎂，加密貨幣市場持續暴跌

歷史不會簡單重複，但總是驚人地相似。在知名Youtube播主David Lin本期節目中，見證了互聯網泡沫與2008年金融危機的27年資深交易員Gareth Soloway，將為我們解讀當前市場與歷史頂部的相似之處。他認為，在AI概念的驅動下，市場估值已極度透支未來，一個關鍵的轉折點已經到來，回調10%至15%僅僅只是開始。
Gareth不僅對股票市場發出預警，還對比特幣和黃金的短期走勢持謹慎態度...