Crypto traders debate whether 2025’s drawdown is a new bear market or a late-cycle reset as QE, global rate cuts, and the U.S. CLARITY Act shape the 2026 outlook.​
Summary
Bitcoin slipped from key hig...

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<p>Crypto traders debate whether 2025’s drawdown is a new bear market or a late-cycle reset as QE, global rate cuts, and the U.S. CLARITY Act shape the 2026 outlook.​</p>
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<div><span>Summary</span></div>
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<li>Bitcoin slipped from key highs and broke major support as most large-cap coins posted yearly losses, while only privacy plays like Monero, Zcash and BNB stayed green.​</li>
<li>Macro divergence, from U.S./UK rate cuts to Japan’s hikes and renewed geopolitical risk, weighs on sentiment even as growing stablecoin supply signals latent liquidity.<a href="https://crypto.news/wp/wp-admin/post-new.php">​</a>
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<li>The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, which could split SEC/CFTC oversight and end “regulation by enforcement,” is set for Senate review in early 2026.</li>
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<p>Cryptocurrency traders and investors are questioning whether the digital asset market has entered a bear phase as 2025 draws to a close, amid ongoing price declines and speculation about potential regulatory changes and monetary policy shifts in 2026.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin traded below recent highs following the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data and an interest rate cut from the Bank of England. The combined cryptocurrency market capitalization retreated near a key trillion-dollar threshold before recovering slightly, according to market data.</p>
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<p>Among the top 50 digital assets with a full year of price history, only privacy tokens Zcash and Monero, along with Binance’s BNB token, posted positive returns for the year, according to price data. Bitcoin declined on a year-to-date basis, while numerous other major cryptocurrencies recorded significant losses over the same period.</p>
<p>In the fourth quarter, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below a major price level and has traded in a range beneath that threshold. The decline broke a key support level, prompting several market analysts to adopt bearish mid-term outlooks.</p>
<p>Peter Brandt, a market analyst, forecast a potential severe decline in 2026, stating that each cryptocurrency bull run has produced diminishing returns and that previous parabolic advances have experienced substantial corrections. Brandt argued that the current parabolic advance has been violated and projected that a decline from the all-time high could bring prices to significantly lower levels.</p>
<h2>FED pivots on crypto</h2>
<p>While the United States and United Kingdom have implemented interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan raised its rates to the highest levels in five years. The divergent monetary policies have added uncertainty to global markets, with potential implications for the yen carry trade, a strategy where traders borrow yen at low interest rates to purchase higher-yielding assets in other currencies.</p>
<p>Global economic uncertainty, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and emerging tensions between the United States and Venezuela represent additional factors affecting cryptocurrency market sentiment, according to market observers.</p>
<p>The stablecoin market capitalization has grown significantly over the past twelve months, according to market data, indicating available liquidity within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.</p>
<p>The United States implemented several interest rate cuts in 2025, and market pricing currently anticipates another reduction, which would maintain Federal Reserve quantitative easing policies. Quantitative easing typically increases liquidity by expanding the money supply and injecting capital into the financial system. Historical data shows that periods of significant quantitative easing, including during the COVID-19 pandemic, have coincided with cryptocurrency bull runs.</p>
<p>Industry leaders, including Binance’s founder, have expressed support for a potential supercycle thesis, suggesting that 2026 could mark the beginning of a new quantitative easing cycle. Some market participants argue that 2025 should not be characterized as a bull run due to the year’s quantitative tightening policies.</p>
<p>The White House confirmed that the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act will be considered by the Senate as early as January, according to an official statement. The legislation will enter the committee stage, where amendments and finalization occur before floor consideration. Early indications suggest the bill may pass, according to political observers.</p>
<p>The CLARITY Act aims to establish clear distinctions between tokens classified as securities and those classified as commodities, dividing regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If enacted, the legislation would provide cryptocurrency companies in the United States with a more transparent regulatory framework, replacing the current system of regulation through litigation.</p>
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Crypto bulls face late-cycle shakeout as 2026 liquidity bets grow

加密貨幣交易員們正在爭論，2025年的下跌究竟是新的熊市，還是周期末期的重置，因為量化寬鬆政策、全球降息以及美國的《CLARITY法案》正在影響著2026年的前景。

摘要

比特幣從關鍵高點下跌…

<div><div><p>加密貨幣交易員們正在爭論，2025年的下跌究竟是新的熊市，還是周期末期的重置，因為量化寬鬆政策、全球降息以及美國的《CLARITY法案》正在影響著2026年的前景。</p><adv/><div><div><span>概括</span></div><div><ul><li>比特幣從關鍵高點回落，跌破主要支撐位，大多數市值較大的加密貨幣都錄得年度虧損，只有Monero、 Zcash和BNB等隱私加密貨幣保持上漲。</li><li>從美英降息到日本升息以及地緣政治風險再度加劇的宏觀經濟分化，都對市場情緒構成壓力，儘管穩定幣供應量的增長表明潛在流動性充裕<a href="https://crypto.news/wp/wp-admin/post-new.php">。</a></li><li> 《數位資產市場透明度法案》可能會拆分美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 和美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 的監管權，並結束“執法監管”，該法案將於 2026 年初提交參議院審查。</li></ul></div></div><p>隨著 2025 年即將結束，加密貨幣交易員和投資者質疑數位資產市場是否已進入熊市階段，因為價格持續下跌，人們猜測 2026 年可能會出現監管變化和貨幣政策轉變。</p><adv/><div><span>你可能也喜歡：</span> Coinomi 與 N.exchange 合作，提供更快、更可靠的非託管錢包內貨幣兌換服務</div><p>受美國消費者物價指數數據公佈和英國央行降息的影響，比特幣交易價格跌破近期高點。市場數據顯示，加密貨幣總市值一度逼近兆美元Threshold，隨後略有回升。</p><div><div><iframe/></div></div><p>根據價格數據，在擁有完整年度價格歷史記錄的前 50 種數位資產中，只有隱私代幣Zcash和Monero，以及幣安的BNB代幣實現了全年正收益。比特幣年初至今價格下跌，而其他眾多主流加密貨幣同期也大幅下跌。</p><p>第四季度，比特幣（BTC）跌破一個重要的價格水平，並在此Threshold下方波動。這次下跌突破了一個關鍵支撐位，促使多位市場分析師對比特幣的中期走勢持悲觀態度。</p><p>市場分析師彼得布蘭特預測，2026年加密貨幣價格可能大幅下跌。他指出，每一輪加密貨幣牛市的收益都在遞減，而先前的拋物線式上漲都經歷了大幅回檔。布蘭特認為，目前的拋物線式上漲趨勢已經破滅，並預測價格從歷史高點回落可能會跌至更低的水平。</p><h2>聯準會轉向加密貨幣</h2><p>儘管美國和英國都已實施降息，但日本央行將利率上調至五年來的最高水準。這種貨幣政策的分歧加劇了全球市場的不確定性，並可能對日圓套利交易產生影響。日圓套利交易是一種交易策略，即交易員以低利率借入日圓，再購買其他貨幣計價的收益更高的資產。</p><p>市場觀察家表示，全球經濟的不確定性、烏克蘭持續不斷的衝突以及美國和委內瑞拉之間日益緊張的局勢，都是影響加密貨幣市場情緒的其他因素。</p><p>市場數據顯示，穩定幣市值在過去十二個月中顯著成長，顯示加密貨幣生態系統內存在流動性。</p><p>美國在2025年實施了多次降息，目前市場預期將再次降息，這將維持聯準會的量化寬鬆政策。量化寬鬆通常透過擴大貨幣供應量和向金融體系注入資本來增加流動性。歷史數據顯示，包括新冠疫情期間在內的多次大規模量化寬鬆政策，都與加密貨幣多頭市場相符。</p><p>包括幣安創始人在內的業界領袖都對潛在的超級週期理論表示支持，認為2026年可能標誌著新一輪量化寬鬆週期的開始。一些市場參與者則認為，由於2025年實施了量化緊縮政策，因此不應將2025年視為多頭市場。</p><p>白宮官方聲明證實，《數位資產市場透明度法案》（Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act）最快將於明年1月提交參議院審議。該法案將進入委員會階段，在此階段進行修訂和最終定稿，之後才會提交全體會議審議。政治觀察家認為，初步跡象顯示該法案有望獲得通過。</p><p> 《CLARITY法案》旨在明確區分被歸類為證券的代幣和被歸類為商品的代幣，並將監管權分配給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）和商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）。如果該法案獲得通過，將為美國加密貨幣公司提供一個更透明的監管框架，取代目前透過訴訟進行監管的模式。</p><div><span>閱讀更多：</span> Coinomi 與 N.exchange 合作，提供更快、更可靠的非託管錢包內貨幣兌換服務</div></div></div>

隨著2026年流動性押注的成長，加密貨幣多頭面臨週期末期的洗牌。

加密風險投資基金 Hashed 近期發佈了一份題為《協議經濟：2026 年展望》的戰略報告，其中指出加密貨幣行業即將進入“……階段”。

哈希值：與實體經濟掛鉤的數字資產項目將在 2026 年蓬勃發展。

文章作者：林晚晚的貓(@linwanwan823)
文章來源：X
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