Investment bank TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg says the chances of the U.S. passing its biggest crypto regulation bill, the CLARITY Act, are fading. And it is now becoming increasingly unlikely to pas...

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<p>Investment bank TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg says the chances of the U.S. passing its biggest crypto regulation bill, the CLARITY Act, are fading. And it is now becoming increasingly unlikely to pass this year as political tensions in Washington continue to rise.</p>
<adv/><p>Here are some of the reasons why Jaret Seiberg says so.</p>
<adv/><h2>Why the CLARITY Act Is Becoming Harder to Pass</h2>
<p>TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg warned that the political environment around the bill is becoming increasingly difficult, especially for Democrats.</p>
<p>One of the biggest issues involves the growing pressure to add conflict-of-interest rules that would prevent the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from actively trading cryptocurrencies.</p>
<p>That section could directly affect Trump-linked crypto ventures, including World Liberty Financial, American Bitcoin, and meme coins such as TRUMP and MELANIA.</p>
<p>According to Seiberg, Democrats may now find it harder to support the bill without stricter ethics provisions, while Republicans could become less willing to move the legislation forward if new amendments directly target Trump.</p>
<p>That political divide is now creating uncertainty around whether lawmakers can still pass the bill before the end of the year.</p>
<h2>Trump’s Political Controversies Add More Pressure</h2>
<p>Seiberg also pointed to several recent political developments making the bill even more difficult for Democrats to support publicly.</p>
<p>One issue involves Trump’s recently settled dispute with the IRS. The settlement reportedly created a $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund designed to compensate people claiming they were targeted by government investigations.</p>
<p>The agreement also permanently blocks the IRS from auditing past tax returns tied to Trump, his family, and related companies. Trump reportedly agreed to drop a separate $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS as part of the settlement.</p>
<p>At the same time, government financial disclosures showed nearly 3,600 stock trades were executed on Trump’s behalf during the first three months of 2026. Some trades reportedly aligned with public policy comments made by Trump during that period.</p>
<h2>Prediction Market Odd Drop</h2>
<p>Prediction markets now show mixed expectations around the bill’s future. According to Polymarket, traders currently see roughly 58% odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law by the end of 2026.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, prediction platform Amiom reportedly estimates only a 24% chance of passage before June 30.</p>
<p>Some lawmakers remain optimistic. Tim Scott recently said he expects the crypto market structure bill to eventually pass with bipartisan support.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Cynthia Lummis recently warned that expectations for a near-term breakthrough may be “too optimistic.”</p>

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TD Cowen Analyst Warns CLARITY Act May Not Pass This Year

投資銀行TD Cowen分析師Jaret Seiberg表示，美國通過其規模最大的加密貨幣監管法案——《CLARITY法案》的可能性正在降低。而且，該法案通過的可能性現在越來越小……

<div><div><p>投資銀行TD Cowen分析師Jaret Seiberg表示，美國通過其規模最大的加密貨幣監管法案——《CLARITY法案》的可能性正在降低。隨著華盛頓政治緊張局勢的持續升級，該法案今年獲得通過的可能性也越來越小。</p><adv/><p>以下是 Jaret Seiberg 這麼說的部分原因。</p><adv/><h2>為什麼《CLARITY法案》越來越難通過</h2><p>TD Cowen 分析師 Jaret Seiberg 警告說，圍繞該法案的政治環境正變得越來越艱難，尤其是對民主黨人來說。</p><p>最大的問題之一是，要求增加利益衝突規則的壓力越來越大，這些規則將阻止總統、副總統和國會議員積極交易加密貨幣。</p><p>該條款可能會直接影響與特朗普有關的加密貨幣企業，包括 World Liberty Financial、American Bitcoin 以及 TRUMP 和 MELANIA 等meme幣。</p><p>塞伯格表示，如果沒有更嚴格的道德條款，民主黨人現在可能更難支持該法案，而如果新的修正案直接針對特朗普，共和黨人可能就不太願意推進該立法。</p><p>目前，這種政治分歧導致人們對立法者能否在年底前通過該法案產生了不確定性。</p><h2>特朗普的政治爭議加劇了壓力</h2><p>塞伯格還指出，最近的一些政治發展使得民主黨人更難公開支持這項法案。</p><p>其中一個問題涉及特朗普最近與美國國稅局達成的和解協議。據報道，該和解協議設立了一個17.76億美元的反武器化基金，旨在補償那些聲稱自己成為政府調查目標的人。</p><p>該協議還永久禁止美國國稅局審計與特朗普、其家人及相關公司有關的過往納稅申報表。據報道，作為和解協議的一部分，特朗普同意撤銷另一起針對美國國稅局的100億美元訴訟。</p><p>與此同時，政府財務披露顯示，在2026年的前三個月，有近3600筆股票交易是以特朗普的名義進行的。據報道，其中一些交易與特朗普在此期間發表的公共政策言論相符。</p><h2>預測市場賠率下降</h2><p>目前預測市場對該法案的未來走向看法不一。據Polymarket的數據顯示，交易員們目前認為《CLARITY法案》在2026年底前成為法律的概率約為58%。</p><p>與此同時，預測平臺Amiom據報道估計，在6月30日之前通過該法案的可能性只有24%。</p><p>一些議員仍然保持樂觀。蒂姆·斯科特最近表示，他預計加密貨幣市場結構法案最終將獲得兩黨支持而獲得通過。</p><p>與此同時，辛西婭·盧米斯最近警告說，對近期取得突破的期望可能“過於樂觀”。</p></div></div>

TD Cowen分析師警告稱，《CLARITY法案》今年可能無法通過

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