Odaily星球日报讯 明天的美国通胀报告将成为焦点，投资者将寻找美联储的利率路径信号。最近一系列意外事件削弱了降息预期。不过，比特币期权的定价表明，交易员预计该报告发布后其波动性不会大幅上升。 机构流动性提供商 OrBit Markets 表示：“市场对这一事件的定价溢价几乎可以忽略不计”，其指出，CPI 报告公布后，比特币价格的波动幅度可能小于 2%，几乎没有任何额外的波动，而标普 500 指数期权定价则反映了相对较高的波动性。 10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 曾考虑过本周晚些时候到期的比特币期权。他的分析与 OrBit 的一致：“5 月 17 日到期的期权隐含波动率为 52.8%，仅比其他期权高 2%，这意味着交易员预计 CPI 公布后波动性将温和上升。然而，已实现的（历史）波动性仍低于 50%，这意味着对大幅上涨或下跌的预期并未反映在价格中。”（CoinDesk）

Odaily星球日报讯 明天的美国通胀报告将成为焦点，投资者将寻找美联储的利率路径信号。最近一系列意外事件削弱了降息预期。不过，比特币期权的定价表明，交易员预计该报告发布后其波动性不会大幅上升。机构流动性提供商 OrBit Markets 表示：“市场对这一事件的定价溢价几乎可以忽略不计”，其指出，CPI 报告公布后，比特币价格的波动幅度可能小于 2%，几乎没有任何额外的波动，而标普 500 指数期权定价则反映了相对较高的波动性。10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 曾考虑过本周晚些时候到期的比特币期权。他的分析与 OrBit 的一致：“5 月 17 日到期的期权隐含波动率为 52.8%，仅比其他期权高 2%，这意味着交易员预计 CPI 公布后波动性将温和上升。然而，已实现的（历史）波动性仍低于 50%，这意味着对大幅上涨或下跌的预期并未反映在价格中。”（CoinDesk）

分析：美国CPI数据发布不会导致比特币波动性大增

Odaily Odaily News: Tomorrow's US inflation report will be in the spotlight, and investors will be looking for signals on the Fed's interest rate path. A series of recent unexpected events have weakened expectations of rate cuts. However, the pricing of Bitcoin options suggests that traders do not expect its volatility to rise significantly after the report is released. "The market's pricing premium for this event is almost negligible," said OrBit Markets, an institutional liquidity provider, noting that the volatility of Bitcoin prices after the CPI report is released may be less than 2%, with almost no additional volatility, while the pricing of S&P 500 index options reflects relatively high volatility. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, has considered Bitcoin options expiring later this week. His analysis is consistent with OrBit's: "The implied volatility of options expiring on May 17 is 52.8%, only 2% higher than other options, which means that traders expect volatility to rise modestly after the CPI is released. However, realized (historical) volatility is still below 50%, which means that expectations of large increases or decreases are not reflected in the price." (CoinDesk)

Odaily Odaily News: Tomorrow&#39;s US inflation report will be in the spotlight, and investors will be looking for signals on the Fed&#39;s interest rate path. A series of recent unexpected events have weakened expectations of rate cuts. However, the pricing of Bitcoin options suggests that traders do not expect its volatility to rise significantly after the report is released. &quot;The market&#39;s pricing premium for this event is almost negligible,&quot; said OrBit Markets, an institutional liquidity provider, noting that the volatility of Bitcoin prices after the CPI report is released may be less than 2%, with almost no additional volatility, while the pricing of S&amp;P 500 index options reflects relatively high volatility. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, has considered Bitcoin options expiring later this week. His analysis is consistent with OrBit&#39;s: &quot;The implied volatility of options expiring on May 17 is 52.8%, only 2% higher than other options, which means that traders expect volatility to rise modestly after the CPI is released. However, realized (historical) volatility is still below 50%, which means that expectations of large increases or decreases are not reflected in the price.&quot; (CoinDesk)

Analysis: US CPI data release will not lead to a surge in Bitcoin volatility

Key Takeaways
· While USD momentum has stalled, we believe the upcoming PPI and CPI data on May 14 and 15 could determine the next major direction for the USD. We believe the Fed will continue to prioritize fighting inflation over early signs of a cooling labor market.
· Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw inflows in its first two days since transitioning to an open-ended fund, marking an important completion of a structural capital rotation for the asset.
· Aave recently revealed its protocol’s...

Coinbase Weekly Report: The market may reach a turning point this week

After two consecutive days of difficulty breaking through the $61,500 resistance level, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded today. Bitpush data shows that shortly after the opening of the U.S. stock market on Monday, the intraday price of BTC once reached $63,269. As of press time, it was $62,907, up 2% in the past 24 hours.
[Market waits for inflation data to "send surprises", BTC climbs slightly]
Market waits for inflation data
Market participants are waiting for U.S. inflation data to help determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be released locally...

The market is waiting for inflation data to "give a surprise", and BTC climbs slightly

Risk assets had a solid week last week as financial conditions continued to ease following the recent release of weaker employment data. Stocks were unfazed by poor U-M consumer confidence and inflation expectations data, with consumer confidence falling to 67.4 from 77.2 last month, while 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.5% from 3.2%.
Overall, the Macroeconomic Surprise Index has fallen to its lowest level in 1.5 years, and Citi's hard data indicator had its largest one-day drop in a year last week. While it is too early to call a "hard landing", with consumer savings falling and PMIs continuing to...