Odaily星球日报讯 分析师表示 Steve Goldstein，市场的第一反应是积极的——股市上涨，债券也在走高。标普 500 指数期货从平盘升至上涨 0.5%，10 年期美国国债收益率下跌了 11 个基点。从数据来看，不仅美国 4 月季调后 CPI 月率录得 0.3%，低于预期，而且 4 月份的零售销售额也没有增长。CPI 数据公布后，互换市场预期美联储 2024 年降息步伐将加快。(金十)

互换市场预期美联储2024年降息步伐将加快

Odaily Odaily analyst Steve Goldstein said that the market&#39;s first reaction was positive - stocks rose and bonds also rose. S&amp;P 500 futures rose from flat to up 0.5%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 11 basis points. Judging from the data, not only did the U.S. CPI monthly rate in April fall to 0.3%, which was lower than expected, but retail sales in April also did not grow. After the CPI data was released, the swap market expected the Fed to accelerate its pace of interest rate cuts in 2024. (Jinshi)

Swap markets expect the Fed to accelerate rate cuts in 2024

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by August is 66%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 31.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.4%.

Before the release of the US CPI data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 91.5%

Contents of this article
- Ball: Patiently waiting for high interest rate policy to ferment
- Interest rate expectations for the second half of the year
- Inflation data determines whether to raise or lower interest rates
- Two schools of thought emerged within the Fed
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has frozen interest rate increases for the sixth time in a row this month, keeping the federal benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. High inflation has poured cold water on expectations of interest rate cuts. .
Ball: Patiently waiting for high interest rate policy to ferment
Just yesterday (14th), Ball said at a conference in Amsterdam that the U.S. inflation rate in the first quarter did not develop as expected, so the Federal Reserve...

U.S. PPI hit a one-year high in April! Ball admits: lack of progress in fighting inflation...pay attention to CPI data tonight

Odaily Odaily News XT Research Institute reminds you to pay attention to macro data: On May 15, 2024 at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will announce: U.S. April unadjusted CPI annual rate; U.S. April seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate; U.S. April seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate; U.S. April unadjusted core CPI annual rate; Among them, the U.S. April unadjusted CPI annual rate has the greatest influence and is the most important. Expected impact: The market generally expects that the impact of U.S. CPI data will be transmitted to the U.S. dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields and interest rate cut expectations, which may be transmitted to risk markets and cryptocurrency markets. Data impact: Announced value > expected value, good for the U.S. dollar, bad for non-U.S. currencies; good for Treasury yields; bad for interest rate cut expectations, good for interest rate hike expectations. Source: Jinshi Data Note: The above content is not intended as investment advice.