US CPI data leaked 30 minutes in advance, causing Bitcoin to rise instantly
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in its latest statement that it "inadvertently uploaded some files to the website about 30 minutes in advance" before the official release of the April CPI and real earnings data. The CPI data was in line with expectations. At 20:00 on May 15, Beijing time, Bitcoin immediately rose, from $62,627 to $64,200. After the data was released, it continued to rise to a high of $66,600, a short-term increase of about 6%, which shows that the flame of interest rate cuts is burning!
There are about 27 days until the next Fed meeting (June 13, 2024)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Market technical and sentiment environment analysis
Sentiment Analysis Components
Technical indicators
Price trend
BTC price increased by +3.43% over the past week, while ETH price decreased by -3.01%.
The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week.
The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week.
The table shows the price change rate over the past week.
Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)
In the past week, the BTC price broke through the concentrated trading area upward, while the ETH price broke upward and then fell back into the concentrated trading area.
The above picture shows the distribution of BTC's dense trading areas in the past week.
The above picture shows the distribution of ETH's dense trading areas in the past week.
The table shows the intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.
Volume and Open Interest
In the past week, the trading volume of BTC and ETH was the largest when the non-agricultural data was released on May 15; the open interest of BTC and ETH both increased slightly.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle shows the trading volume, the bottom shows the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by the trading volume, red means closing positions, yellow means slowly accumulating positions, and black means crowded state.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by the trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility
Historical volatility for BTC and ETH was highest this past week when it fell to 5.10; implied volatility for BTC rose while ETH fell.
The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average.
Event-driven
In terms of events, the US CPI data was in line with expectations. After the data was accidentally leaked 30 minutes in advance, the US CPI data was in line with expectations. The price of Bitcoin rose strongly, while Ethereum rose and then fell back.
Sentiment Indicators
Momentum Sentiment
In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while CSI 300 performed the worst.
The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.
Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment
Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 11.6%, and short-term interest rates fell to around 7.9%.
The yellow line is the highest price of USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table shows the average returns of USD interest rates at different holding days in the past
Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment
The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 6.5%, and contract leverage sentiment continued to be sluggish.
The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average
The table shows the average return of BTC fees for different holding days in the past.
Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week rose to around 0.62, and the consistency between different varieties continued to rise.
In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [' 1000 floki', ' 1000 lunc', ' 1000 pepe', ' 1000 shib', ' 100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation
Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 30% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average, 17% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 10% of the prices were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 33% of the prices were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that the overall market was in a stage of slow recovery from weakness.
The above picture shows ['bnb', 'btc', 'sol', 'eth', ' 1000 floki', ' 1000 lunc', ' 1000 pepe', ' 1000 sats', ' 1000 shib', ' 100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'ai', 'algo', 'alt', 'ankr', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'cake', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'idu', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'jto', 'jup', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2 ', 'magic', 'mana', 'manta', 'mask', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'nfp', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'ordi', 'pendle', 'pyth', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'robin', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wif', 'wld', 'woo','xai', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx' ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator
Summarize
In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rose after the CPI data was released in advance, but Ethereum fell back significantly afterwards. The historical volatility reached its maximum when both Bitcoin and Ethereum fell on 5.10. The trading volume reached its maximum when the CPI data was released in advance, and the open interest increased slightly. The implied volatility of Bitcoin rose while that of Ethereum fell. The funding rate remained low, and the market breadth indicator showed that the market was in a stage of slow recovery in a weak position. In terms of events, the US CPI data was in line with expectations. Bitcoin and Ethereum rose immediately after the data was released, which shows that the flame of interest rate cuts has been burning!
Twitter: @DerivativesCN
Website: https://dcbot.ai/
