Original | Liu Jiaolian
The thin clouds are playing tricks, the flying stars are conveying hatred, and the Milky Way is far away and dark. When the golden wind and jade dew meet, it is better than countless things in the world.
Since breaking through the 30-day moving average pressure on the 15th, " Bitcoin Trend Reversal" has closed three green candle in a row and advanced all the way to 67k.
We have seen that we are currently experiencing a period of shock adjustment since the Bitcoin Golden Halving on April 20. So, what kind of stage is this?
In this regard, anonymous analyst PlanB pointed out that from the previous halvings, after each halving, miners' income will experience a 2-5 month decline and recovery phase, and then enter a rapid rise channel. (See the figure below)
Please note that this is a miner revenue chart, not a BTC (Bitcoin) price chart.
This is BTC's "overt conspiracy". Under the condition that the short-term price level remains basically unchanged, the halving of production means that the block reward will be immediately cut in half. Although Runes were popular for a while this time, they have long since returned to silence.
This is a painful phase - at least for the mining community.
Miners who are not strong enough will be "swept" to death directly. Miners with strong strength and rich family background will need some time to "recover". The survivors stand up on the corpses of the eliminated. With fewer people sharing less food, everyone can regain health and vitality. This stage can also be called the elimination round of miners.
The eliminated ones struggle to survive before death. They will sell all the accumulated BTC before they die in an attempt to prolong their lives.
Unfortunately, their selling had the opposite effect to what they expected: it neutralized the supply shock and price increase that the halving should have brought. The suppressed price was like a death rope, tightly tied around their necks. The more they struggled, the closer the rope was, which accelerated their own death.
When the weak were eliminated and had given up all their accumulation, the strong took in all the surplus, began to recover and become stronger.
That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
The last one standing is the winner.
After the brutal elimination, the surviving miners will make a profit. The profit will be paid on time by the BTC system in BTC. Miners only need to sell a part of it to cover their mining costs. They will hoard the remaining BTC and be reluctant to sell it.
After all, the longer you live in this industry, the more you understand the preciousness of BTC positions.
The selling pressure decreases and the reluctance to sell increases, and the effect is doubled.
Even better, the secondary market is beginning to feel the impact of the supply tightening brought about by the halving. The purchasing power of the same dollar can now have a greater pull effect.
The higher price allows miners who are reluctant to sell to sell less BTC to cover the mining costs of the same USD, which further reduces the selling pressure.
Rising prices and reduced selling pressure reinforce each other, entering a positive feedback loop.
The thrust of this positive feedback loop, superimposed on the “reflexivity effect” prevalent in the secondary market – that is, more purchases and higher prices form a positive feedback loop, further resonating with each other, greatly enhancing the effect.
So the BTC rocket launched. Ta Da Moon.
(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and there is a risk of it returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for your own actions.)
