As the US inflation momentum weakened, expectations for interest rate cuts continued to rise, and the probability of Ethereum spot ETF approval increased, the cryptocurrency market entered a soaring mode, with Bitcoin breaking through $71,000 at one point. Then, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes released hawkish signals, and Bitcoin fell below $69,000 again.
Investors have obvious differences under the normal volatility
Bitcoin fluctuated violently, and there were clear differences among market investors.
On May 20, crypto whale 37tr7 withdrew 120 BTC (about $7.97 million) from Binance. Within a week, he accumulated a total of 185 BTC at an average price of $64,712. On May 22, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $154 million (2,211 BTC), marking eight consecutive days of net inflow.
In contrast, bearish cryptocurrency analyst James Check said in a May 21 market report that BTC could rise back to $73,000, which could mark the beginning of the asset's acceleration to "escape velocity." Check said: "While the transition from enthusiasm to euphoria can happen quickly, it feels like we haven't reached euphoria escape velocity yet. This price is also the price at which STH (wallets holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days) are now 'well-profited', which could lead to selling and create some resistance."
10x Research, a cryptocurrency research institution, published an article on the X platform, stating that it adheres to its judgment that Bitcoin is bearish after the halving. In addition, since the halving, the inflow of stablecoins has almost zero growth, and the leverage ratio of Bitcoin futures contracts has also dropped significantly, which are all the basis for supporting its judgment. Previously, the research institution also stated that when Bitcoin undergoes a triangular consolidation, investors should pay attention to potential "fake dips". Bitcoin's relative strength has fallen back to a low of 40% in this adjustment, which is similar to the three adjustments of Bitcoin since the beginning of 2023.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt previously wrote that Bitcoin prices may have peaked in the current bull market cycle when they hit a new high of $73,835, and expects them to fall back to around $30,000 or even the lows of 2021. He attributed this expected pullback to a phenomenon known as exponential decay, which he believes will affect the recent highs in Bitcoin prices, and in the long run, such a decline may be "the most favorable thing."
Still bullish in the long term
MIIX Capital Investment Research analyzed in its latest weekly research report that the implied volatility of BTC's short-term out-of-the-money put options is still higher than that of call options, indicating that the market's concerns about the recent price correction have not been eliminated, but the implied volatility of long-term options remains stable, showing that institutions are optimistic about BTC's long-term prospects.
PlanB posted on the X platform that the average price of Bitcoin in the halving cycle from 2020 to 2024 is $34,000, slightly lower than the $55,000 predicted by the S2F model in 2019, but still within the normal range, considering that the Bitcoin price was less than $4,000 when the prediction was made. The modified S2F model using the new data shows similar parameters and results: Bitcoin price will reach $500,000 in 2024-2028 and $4 million in 2028-2032.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, recently wrote that in order to curb the depreciation of the yen, the Federal Reserve may reach an unlimited dollar-yen swap agreement with the Bank of Japan, which is consistent with the implementation of the yield curve control policy (YCC), that is, the yield of US Treasury bonds is lower than it should be. In addition, as supply increases, the dollar will also depreciate. He also said that the pace of yen depreciation will accelerate in the fall, which will force the US and Japanese governments to take action. Hayes predicts that if his theoretical prediction comes true, it will trigger a new round of cryptocurrency increases, and Bitcoin is even expected to hit the $1 million mark.
In view of the crypto market where "volatility is the norm and long-term bullishness", now is the best time to ambush and build positions. To this end, Huobi HTX launched a trading mining activity, where users can trade BTC at a negative rate and share huge rewards, so as to better meet users' trading needs and improve trading experience.
Huobi HTX trading and mining activities include spot trading and contract trading. Users can participate in the activity by trading spot BTC/USDT trading pairs and perpetual contract BTC/USDT trading pairs, and share the $HTX prize pool of 100,000 USDT each day. Participating users need to have a rocket value ≥ 300 and successfully register on the activity page.
Huobi HTX trading mining has also innovatively proposed a 7*24h reward mechanism - the daily bonus pool is divided into 24 periods, and the rewards are updated every hour to ensure that users have equal opportunities to participate in different time periods. The maximum reward per person per hour for spot/contract trading mining is 100 USDT. After reaching the personal mining reward limit or the bonus pool limit, the reward will not increase.
Currently, the Trading Mining Pizza Festival special event is coming to an end, with a 7-day cumulative USDT prize pool of 1.4 million for participants to share.
Since the launch of spot trading and mining on Huobi HTX, the market response has been enthusiastic, and users have participated enthusiastically, winning wide acclaim. Huobi HTX will continue to improve the service quality of the platform and strive to create a safe, convenient, efficient and feature-rich trading environment for users by introducing innovative products.
