Bitcoin's fundamentals have never changed; what has changed is its price in a continuously depreciating fiat currency system.
Written by: Jackson
Compiled by: Saoirse, Foresight News
Bitcoin has fallen 45% from its all-time high of $126,000. In just a few weeks, the price has dropped $58,000 and broken below the 2021 all-time high (which has now become a "key resistance level," and breaking below this level indicates a weakening market). By any objective standard, the current market situation is extremely dire.
If you hold Bitcoin, your conviction is being tested right now. I completely understand that feeling—I have the vast majority of my net worth invested in Bitcoin, and I'm experiencing this volatility firsthand.
But what keeps me grounded is that those who are truly in trouble now are not those watching their portfolios shrink, but those who no longer hold Bitcoin.
The real victims
- Victims who trusted centralized platforms like Celsius and BlockFi: They naively believed these platforms' promises of "outrageously high" returns, ultimately losing not just 45%, but all of their assets.
- Victims of social engineering scams may fall victim to phishing attacks, have their SIM cards hijacked, or be tricked into handing over their security keys. A moment of carelessness, or the work of a cunning scammer, can wipe out years of savings.
- Victims of lost keys either failed to properly back up their seed phrase or used complex storage settings they couldn't recover. Their Bitcoins still exist on the blockchain, but are no longer accessible.
- Families with no planning: When a loved one passes away, they "take" their Bitcoin key with them. The Bitcoin remains, and the wealth remains, but it can never be accessed.
If you still hold Bitcoin and store it securely in a cold wallet, your situation is fundamentally different from the groups mentioned above.
The difference between volatility and permanent loss
In a bear market, people often confuse "volatility" with "permanent loss," but there are key differences between the two.
Volatility is temporary. Bitcoin prices, denominated in US dollars, are bound to fluctuate; they have always been. While a 45% pullback is painful, as long as you still hold Bitcoin, the fundamentals remain unchanged: the total supply of Bitcoin remains fixed at 21 million, the US debt of $38 trillion continues to grow, and the core logic supporting Bitcoin's value still holds true.
Permanent losses are irreversible. If you lose your Bitcoin due to mismanagement, theft, social engineering scams, or unexpected death without leaving any arrangements, it can never be recovered. Even if Bitcoin rises to $500,000 in the future, it won't matter to you—because you will no longer hold it.
The real risk isn't a price pullback, but whether your Bitcoin will survive for the next decade.
What you need to do right now is a "security audit".
This price pullback should be seen as a "forcing mechanism": not to force you to panic sell, nor to force you to precisely buy the dips, but to make you examine the safety of your assets and seriously consider the following critical questions:
Is your hosting service truly secure?
- Did you use compliant cold storage equipment?
- Does the storage system have a "single point of failure" (such as relying on only a single device or platform)?
- Can someone else obtain your Bitcoin through social engineering?
Have you made proper backups?
- Have seed phrase been backed up in multiple secure locations?
- Can backups withstand unexpected events such as fire, flood, and theft?
- If the hardware fails, can you successfully recover your Bitcoin assets?
If something happens to you, can your family members access your Bitcoin?
- Does anyone know that you hold Bitcoin and know where it is stored?
- Do they know how to properly access these assets?
- Have you made an inheritance plan? Or will Bitcoin "disappear" with you?
Can your storage system last for decades?
- Will the current escrow plan still be effective in 10, 20, or 30 years?
- Is there an over-reliance on a particular company or service?
- Have you conducted stress tests on asset security under various extreme scenarios?
If you cannot confidently answer "yes" to any of the above questions, it means you still have a lot of work to do.
My change of perspective
When Bitcoin went from being a "trading asset" to becoming a significant part of my wealth, the above questions began to keep me up at night.
I spent months thinking about escrow options, estate planning, and all the potential risks: What if I pass away? What if I fall victim to social engineering scams? What if key management goes wrong? What if the company managing the keys goes bankrupt?
What matters is not any particular solution, but rather that once Bitcoin becomes significant to you, you need to treat its security issues with the same rigor you hold for your beliefs about it.
Those who can weather a bear market are not just those who "believe in Bitcoin," but also those who have established a "full-scenario asset protection system."
Those Unchanged Facts
Please allow me to clarify one point: the following core logic supporting Bitcoin's value has never changed:
- The total supply of Bitcoin remains fixed at 21 million, and this rule cannot be changed regardless of changes in market demand or the severity of panic.
- The U.S. federal debt remains at a staggering $38 trillion (compared to just $400 billion in 1971) and is growing exponentially with no prospect of reversal.
- The Federal Reserve will continue to print money—it has always done so, and it will continue to do so in the future. This is the inevitable trend of the current fiat currency system.
- Bitcoin remains the only monetary asset that has a fixed supply, is not diluted by inflation, is not easily confiscated, and is not dependent on any government or institution.
Bitcoin's fundamentals have never changed; what has changed is its price in a continuously depreciating fiat currency system.
What does this mean to you?
If your Bitcoin is securely stored in a cold wallet and you have long-term plans for yourself and your family, then you don't need to be overly anxious.
Withstand the immediate shocks, remain calm, and view investments from a "decades-long" perspective, rather than getting bogged down in a few days of ups and downs.
However, if you have doubts about the hosting method, haven't made proper backups, your family can't access your assets in case of an accident, or your storage system relies on a "single point of failure," then now is the best time to solve these problems.
Don't let a 45% temporary drawdown turn into a 100% permanent loss by ignoring safety.
A bear market tests your faith, but poor asset management can permanently destroy your wealth.
Protect your assets, develop a realistic plan, and then wait patiently.
Everything else is irrelevant.
