The cryptocurrency market once again received big news yesterday (24th). At around 5 o'clock yesterday morning, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally officially approved the 19b-4 documents submitted by eight Ethereum spot ETF issuers (Exchange Rule changes), bringing us one step closer to the listing of the first Ethereum spot ETF.
However, it is worth noting that after the approval of the 19b-4 document, the issuer still needs to wait for the SEC to approve its S-1 registration statement before it can officially start listing and trading. The SEC has only officially started working with the issuer on its S-1 in the past few days. -1 file for discussion. It's unclear how long the process will take, but some analysts speculate it could take weeks.
Shenyu Forecasts Ethereum Spot ETF Timeline
In this context, Discus Fish, the founder of Bitcoin mining pool F2Pool and digital asset custody solution provider Cobo, posted a prediction on the social platform According to public information, the possible listing timeline of Ethereum spot ETF will be:
5/23: ETH 19b-4 passed unexpectedly, and market makers began to purchase ETH spot to prepare for providing liquidity;
Early June: The S1 file may be approved. Referring to the time of BTC ETF, it will take at least two weeks, but the normal pace may take 3 months;
Mid-June: Trading may begin immediately after S1 is passed, or within a few days;
June-December: In the initial stage of listing, the main inflow of funds may still be from retail investors, accounting for 80% to 90% of the total funds, with less participation from institutional users. Considering that ETHE is similar to GBTC, the market may face some arbitrage selling pressure, but whether it can withstand this selling pressure remains to be seen;
After December: As time goes by, institutional investors gradually begin to enter the market.
Bloomberg Analyst: Mid-June is definitely possible
Shenyu’s views are similar to those of Bloomberg analyst James Seyffar, who also wrote yesterday:
To be clear, the SEC's approval of the 19b-4 filing does not mean that trading can begin tomorrow. They still need to review the S-1 filing, which takes time. We expect it will take a few weeks, maybe longer.
However, Eric Balchunas, also a Bloomberg analyst, is more confident that there will be results in mid-June:
My guess is that there will only be one round of S-1 reviews, during the Bitcoin Spot ETF review one round of reviews took two weeks, so June of this year is definitely a possibility.
Standard Chartered Bank: Ethereum may break through $8,000 by the end of the year
At present, in addition to making predictions about the official launch time of the Ethereum spot ETF, analysts have also made bold predictions about the price of ETH. For example, Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange research and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted on the 21st of this week that the capital flows that the Ethereum ETF will bring after its approval:
We estimate that the Ethereum spot ETF will bring in inflows of 2.39 million to 9.15 million ETH in the first 12 months after approval... In U.S. dollar terms, this equates to approximately $15 billion to $45 billion.
Kendrick also predicts that the price ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin will remain at 5.4% by 2024. If BTC reaches $150,000 by the end of the year, the price of Ethereum may reach $8,000.
Given that we now predict that Bitcoin will reach the $150,000 level by the end of 2024, this would mean that the price of Ethereum would reach $8,000.
Further reading:Strong! Ethereum fluctuates at US$3,700 and cannot fall. How do institutions and analysts predict the future market of ETH?
