Ethereum’s ETF surges 18% on eve of adoption
https://www.coinglass.com/zh/LiquidationData
On 2024.05.20, according to Bloomberg analysts: The SEC is requiring exchanges to speed up the submission of 19 b-4 documents for the Ethereum spot ETF. Bloomberg analysts increased the winning rate of the Ethereum spot ETF on 5/23 to 75 %, ETH rose sharply by 18%, and the short position liquidation on that day was as high as 75 million U.S. dollars. Until it was officially passed on May 23, 2024, Ethereum fell from a maximum of 3950 U.S. dollars to a minimum of 3524 U.S. dollars, and the long position liquidation was as high as 88.16 million U.S. dollars, and then rebounded and rose back to $3800.
On May 20, 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) required exchanges to expedite 19 b-4 filings for Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bloomberg analysts predict that the Ethereum spot ETF’s adoption rate will increase to 75%. On this news, the price of Ethereum surged, rising by 18%. The amount of open positions in short contracts that day was as high as $75 million.
However, after the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved on May 23, 2024, the price of Ethereum fell sharply. The highest price dropped from $3,950 to the lowest price of $3,524. At this time, the long contract also experienced liquidation, with the liquidation volume reaching $88.16 million. Ethereum price subsequently rebounded and climbed back to $3,800.
There are about 20 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.06.13)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Market technical and emotional environment analysis
Sentiment analysis components
Technical indicators
Price trend
BTC price increased by +4.19% and ETH price increased by +28.49% in the past week.
The picture above is the price chart of BTC over the past week
The picture above is the price chart of ETH over the past week
Table showing the rate of price change over the past week
Price and volume distribution chart (support and resistance)
In the past week, BTC price broke upward and then fell back into the intensive trading zone, while ETH price broke upward and fell back into the intensive trading zone.
The picture above is the distribution map of BTC’s intensive trading areas in the past week.
The picture above is the distribution map of ETH’s intensive trading areas in the past week.
Table showing the intensive weekly trading ranges for BTC and ETH over the past week
Volume and Open Interest
Volume over the past week has been largest for BTC on the rise at 5.20 and ETH on the decline from the high of 5.22; open interest has been little changed for BTC while ETH has risen significantly.
The price trend of BTC at the top of the picture above, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current status. Green means that the price rise is supported by trading volume, red means positions are being closed, yellow means positions are slowly accumulating, and black means congestion.
The price trend of ETH at the top of the picture above, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current status. Green means that the price rise is supported by trading volume, red means positions are being closed, yellow means positions are slowly accumulating, and black means congestion.
Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility
Historical volatility over the past week for BTC and ETH was highest when rising at 5.20; implied volatility for BTC fell while ETH rose.
The yellow line is historical volatility, the blue line is implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average
event driven
In terms of events, this week the US SEC passed the Ethereum ETF, and the price rose by about 18% before passing. After the passing, the price fell sharply and then rebounded.
sentiment indicator
momentum sentiment
Among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/HSI/CSI 300 over the past week, Bitcoin was the strongest, while the worst performer was the Hang Seng Index.
The picture above shows the trends of different assets over the past week.
Lending interest rate_Lending sentiment
The annualized return on USD lending averaged 12.1% in the past week, and short-term interest rates increased slightly.
The yellow line is the highest price of the USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price
The table shows the average return of USD interest rate for different holding days in the past
Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment
The average annualized return on BTC tariffs in the past week was 6.8%, and contract leverage sentiment has rebounded from lows.
The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average
The table shows the average return of BTC tariffs for different holding days in the past
Market Correlation_Consistent Sentiment
The correlation has risen to around 0.85 among the 129 coins selected over the past week, with consistency across different instruments rising significantly.
The blue line in the above picture first shows the Bitcoin price, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada ', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb ', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos', 'etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot ', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', ' near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn' , 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', ' sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm' , 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation
Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment
Of the 129 coins selected in the past week, 77% had prices above the 30-day moving average, compared with 31% of BTC prices above the 30-day moving average, and 20% had prices greater than 20% from the lowest price in the past 30 days. , the proportion that is less than 10% from the highest price in the past 30 days is 57%. The market width indicator over the past week shows that the overall market is gradually entering an upward trend.
The picture above is ['bnb', 'btc', 'sol', 'eth', '1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 sats', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec' , '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'ai', 'algo', 'alt', 'ankr', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', ' astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'cake', 'celo' , 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', ' enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt' , 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'idu', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'jto', 'jup', ' kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana ', 'manta', 'mask', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'nfp', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'ordi', 'pendle', 'pyth', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'robin', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei ', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wif', 'wld', 'woo','xai', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr ', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx' ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator
Summarize
Over the past week, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices rose on news of an Ethereum ETF ahead of Bloomberg analysts’ predictions on May 20, but Ethereum fell from its highs following the ETF’s official adoption. There is a rebound. In the process, the historical volatility of both Bitcoin and Ethereum reached its maximum. Specifically, Bitcoin’s volume reached its maximum on May 20 when it was rising, while Ethereum’s volume also reached its maximum on May 23 when Ethereum rebounded from its highs. In terms of open interest, Bitcoin was little changed, while Ethereum’s open interest rose significantly. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s implied volatility decreased while Ethereum’s implied volatility increased. Funding rates are picking up at low levels, while market breadth indicators show that the market is gradually entering an upward trend. On the event front, this week the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved an Ethereum ETF, causing Ethereum to rise by about 18% ahead of the adoption. However, after the ETF was officially approved, Ethereum prices rebounded after plummeting from highs.
Twitter: @DerivativesCN
Website: https://dcbot.ai/
