In the early morning of yesterday (24th), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved the 19b-4 documents (changes in exchange rules) submitted by eight Ethereum spot ETF issuers. However, the official listing and trading still awaits another necessary S- 1 The registration statement document has also been approved by the SEC.
As for how long it will take until it goes on sale? ETFStore President Nate Geraci said on Monday that the SEC is likely to approve 19b-4 but slow down the execution of S-1. It may still take "a few weeks to a few weeks before we see S-1 approval and the official listing of the Ethereum spot ETF." month" time.
Yesterday, many experts optimistically predicted that we may see the first batch of Ethereum spot ETFs listed in June. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas firmly predicts that there will definitely be results in June, and the founder of F2Pool, one of the five major Bitcoin mining crypto, is also the founder of digital asset custody solution provider Cobo. (Discus Fish) predicted yesterday that the Ethereum spot ETF may be officially launched in "mid-June".
But at the same time, some institutions believe that the listing time will be after June, Galaxy Digital predicts that it will be in July or August , and JP Morgan is betting on a later date of November .
Will SEC delay the listing of Ethereum spot ETF help promote the rise of ETH?
Previously, some analysts believed that compared with the beginning of the year, the SEC quickly approved the 19b-4 and S-1 documents of the Bitcoin spot ETF and opened the listing one day later. Now it is delaying the approval of the S-1 document of the Ethereum spot ETF. For example, this uncertainty may cause ETH to experience a " significant price adjustment ."
But several traders are optimistic, saying it could allow the Ethereum market to build upward momentum ahead of potential inflows from spot ETFs.
According to "The Block", Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of cryptocurrency hedge fund Split Capital, explained:
If spot ETFs started trading immediately, the price action would be even more dramatic. Instead, the delay gives market participants time to get a jump on Ethereum ahead of potential inflows into the ETF.
Even if we conservatively estimate inflows into the Ethereum spot ETF to be 15% of the Bitcoin spot ETF, this is still a huge value.
Analyst: Billions of funds will be deployed before the Ethereum spot ETF is launched
This is in line with the views of eToro analyst Simon Peters, who said:
“With the approval of the 19b-4 filing, now may be an opportunity for savvy crypto investors to buy Ethereum in anticipation of S-1 approval, pre-empting the ETF listing, and potentially billions of dollars. flow into it .”
He added that after the spot ETF was launched at the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin reached a record high, which triggered speculation on whether Ethereum could also reach a new record high in the future. ETH, currently trading at $3,746, is still nearly 30% away from the all-time high of $4,878 in the 2021 bull market.
Brian Rudick, a research analyst at cryptocurrency market maker GSR, agreed:
While the impact won't be huge, the delay is a marginal positive because the approval of 19b-4 was unexpected, so the delay should generate favorable anticipation and publicity for subsequent launches.
All else being equal, this should facilitate early capital inflows into the product and thus help ETH’s price rise.
Bloomberg Analyst: Demand for Ethereum Spot ETF will reach 25% of Bitcoin Spot ETF
Ilya Paveliev, co-founder of Arete Capital, a crypto venture capital firm, pointed out that because traders did not realize the SEC's change of attitude at the last critical moment, traders used leverage this week to capture early momentum, and contract open interest increased by 26%. That may reverse as short-term traders take profits, but the launch of ETFs should increase spot trading volumes.
The overall net capital inflow of the ETH spot ETF on the first day of listing is expected to be US$20-40 million, which is approximately 15-30% of the Bitcoin spot ETF.
Combined with lower exchange reserves and 30% of ETH supply locked, the stage is set for a supply-constrained price squeeze.
Last night, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart pointed out in an interview that he predicted that the demand for Ethereum spot ETFs may be 20~25% of that of Bitcoin spot ETFs, while his colleague Eric Balchunas believed it was 15~20%.
Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange research and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted on Tuesday that the Ethereum spot ETF will bring in 2.39 million to 9.15 million ETH in the first 12 months after approval, equivalent to an inflow of approximately US$15 billion to US$45 billion. . And predicts that when Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of the year, Ethereum will reach $8,000.
Further reading:Strong! Ethereum fluctuates at US$3,700 and cannot fall. How do institutions and analysts predict the future market of ETH?
