At around 5 a.m. Beijing time on May 24, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved key regulatory documents related to the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund.
This marks a milestone in the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF.
Next, the Ethereum spot ETF needs to be officially traded on the exchange and the SEC needs to approve the ETF's filing documents before investors can trade. However, this step of approval is basically just a matter of time.
I remember that I was quite pessimistic in my article some time ago, thinking that the passage of Ethereum spot ETF might have to wait until next year if Trump is elected.
This 180-degree turn is really overwhelming.
We know that the current SEC chairman has publicly expressed a negative attitude towards crypto assets in the past two years. Regarding Ethereum, he has repeatedly questioned whether its token issuance, especially the staking income, conflicts with the Howey Test.
Even when faced with explanations such as "Ethereum staking is for maintaining network security rather than purely for commercial profit," he basically did not give a positive response.
Therefore, I have always believed that as long as he is in office, the hope of Ethereum spot ETF passing is very slim.
Why did the SEC change its attitude towards Ethereum so quickly recently?
After thinking about it, I can only think that this is mainly due to political pressure?
Facing the upcoming presidential election, Trump has publicly expressed his support for crypto assets and has also publicly accepted donations in the form of crypto assets on his website.
This move has aroused considerable favor among young Americans.
Faced with this pressure, or perhaps in order to attract more young people's attention to the Democratic Party, the SEC had to make a 180-degree turn in its attitude towards the Ethereum spot ETF?
In addition, the conflict of interest and collusion between Wall Street and the SEC probably played a significant role in this.
There is no need to elaborate on the strong interest of these institutions in the Ethereum spot ETF. They have been making various efforts to pass this ETF. BlackRock has repeatedly publicly stated its determination to vigorously develop the encryption ecosystem.
In order to dispel the current chairman’s doubts about Ethereum staking, these institutions even promised in the documents submitted this time that they would not carry out Ethereum staking operations.
Now, all these efforts have paid off.
I have listed three important factors for the possible performance of Ethereum price in the next bull market:
Can an innovative application ecosystem emerge in the Ethereum ecosystem?
Will the Ethereum Spot ETF Pass?
Will the Fed cut interest rates?
The first factor is the internal factors that determine whether the price of Ethereum can explode. We cannot predict this, but can only continuously track and observe all possible new signs and new trends in the ecosystem.
The second and third factors are external factors that determine whether the price of Ethereum can explode. The second factor is the switch that determines whether the external factors can work, and the third factor is the fuse that determines whether the external factors can work.
Now the switch of external factors has been completely turned on.
What about the external trigger? It still depends on the data performance. If the US inflation and employment data continue to improve, interest rate cuts may occur in the second half of the year, and the fuse will be ignited.
In the next bull market, if interest rates can be cut, there is still hope that the price of Ethereum will reach $10,000. And if the Ethereum ecosystem can also produce innovative application ecosystems, the price of the currency is likely to create an even greater miracle.
