Original | Liu Jiaolian
Yesterday, on May 28, the internal reference of the Education Chain, "Will the unusual movement of 140,000 BTC in Mentougou cause a market crash?" mentioned that the long-closed Mentougou (Mt.Gox) exchange suddenly moved abnormally, which shocked the market. BTC jumped slightly and fell back from 69k to 68k.
This round of bull market started early and fiercely. On March 11, 2024, it broke through the previous high of 69k in 2021, and soon climbed to over 72k. The long-term holders (LTH) group "sold when it rose" and distributed chips. So we also rarely saw a small climax of long-term holders selling so early (as shown in the figure below, the red tip pointing downward). March 2024 is 4 months earlier than the small climax of selling in July 2019!
If we follow one of the definitions of a bull market, that is, exceeding the previous high is the beginning of a bull market, we can roughly see from history that in each cycle, the bull market starts earlier and earlier.
In the last bull market, it took until December 16, 2020 - equivalent to December 16, 2024 in this round - to break through the previous high of 19.8k in 2017.
In the previous round, it took until after the Chinese New Year and until January 4, 2017 - equivalent to January 4, 2025 in this round - before it broke through the previous high of more than 1,100 in 2013.
In the previous round, it was not until February 28, 2013, the following year, which is equivalent to February 28, 2025 in this round, that the previous high of 31 in 2011 was broken. (The forward method may not be applicable in the early stage)
In other words, the bear market duration is getting shorter and shorter with each cycle.
If you think about it carefully, it is easy to understand: it shows that people are becoming more and more confident in BTC. This confidence is that BTC will definitely return to its previous high and continue to grow. The stronger this confidence is, the stronger the motivation to increase positions when the price falls. The more people dare to increase positions when the price falls, the faster BTC will return to its previous high.
However, starting too early and too aggressively cannot help but make us worry about how long this bull market can last.
The last bull market peaked on November 9-10, 2021. The bull market lasted for 1 year and one month, or 13 months.
The previous round peaked on December 17, 2017. The bull market lasted for 11 months.
The previous round peaked on November 30, 2013. The bull market lasted only 9 months.
It is obvious that not only has the bear market shortened, but the bull market has also prolonged. This also shows that people’s confidence in BTC is increasing with each cycle.
The above two conclusions are actually the same.
But this round started too early. The bull market started in March 2024, and if it runs until December 2025, that’s 21 months!
In the past, each round was extended by about 2 months. According to this, this round of 15 months will run from March 2024 to May 2025, which means it will peak in the middle of 2025. This is another kind of "carving a sword on a boat" to find a sword. The bull market will always peak at the end of the year, half a year (6 months) in advance.
Therefore, whether this bull market will peak and end in mid-2025 or last until the end of 2025 can only be answered by market practice.
It is now May. There is still one to one and a half years left.
Now it is $70,000. Double it to $140,000. Triple it to $210,000. Quadruple it to $280,000. Quintuple it to $350,000. This is elementary school math, nothing much to say.
In the power law price corridor model, the middle track is 110,000 dollars and the upper track is 430,000 dollars in mid-2025, and the middle track is 140,000 dollars and the upper track is 510,000 dollars at the end of 2025. Readers who are not familiar with this model can look up the previous articles of Jiaolian.
If we still assume that the time from bull to bear and the bottom is about 1 year, then the lower track in 2026 is 58k, and the lower track at the end of 2026 is just around 70k. (58+70)/2 = 64k, which is the average mathematical expectation.
This shows us a "cruel" possibility, that is, friends who rush into the market after the bull market starts signaling, buy and hold, and when they go through this round of bull and bear markets and reach the bottom of the next bear market, they are likely to make no money, or even lose money.
Therefore, those who are more creative may want to do some "sexy operations". In this regard, Jiaolian will not comment or make any suggestions.
The middle track from mid-2026 to the end of the year is 160k-200k. In this range or above, timely implementation of appropriate short-selling strategies, such as band reduction strategies, or currency-based short strategies, etc., may have a relatively high winning rate. These "skilled and daring" strategies require more advanced skills, stronger determination, earlier advance layout and chip preparation, all of which are indispensable. The vast majority of ordinary players are either unable to take action due to insufficient preparation, or fail due to psychological breakdown. Therefore, "playing with fire and getting burned" is often not an empty talk.
It is difficult for ordinary people to establish hedging thinking. They simply cannot execute two sets of strategies in their brains at the same time, one for long and one for short. Those who don't believe it can try it and see if they will fight with themselves and their thinking will be completely messed up. Once it is messed up, it is easy to completely reverse it, whether to short when you should go long or short when you should long, and finally lose a lot of money.
In the final analysis, it is impossible to accurately grasp how the market will go. Jiaolian counted on his fingers and wrote down a few scattered numbers in a small notebook just to have an idea in mind. Everyone has different positions, strategies, goals, and fund life cycles, so they cannot be generalized or applied mechanically. This article is not an investment strategy, let alone any investment advice.
With a calm mind, lasting endurance and the right methods, it is not difficult to make a little money in the market.
(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and there is a risk of it returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for your own actions.)
