It is important to choose the right narrative. If you had chosen Altcoin from the beginning of this cycle, you might have missed most of the bull market to this day because the Altcoin season that many people believed to be had not arrived yet in this cycle.
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher published a popular post explaining the current Altcoin market conditions and what has caused Altcoin to underperform this season.
The following is from @milesdeutscher and compiled by Followin :
We are not in an Altcoin bull market. Not even close.
If you're struggling with this cycle, you're not alone.
I recently dug into some data that revealed some shocking facts about the current state of the market, and also holds the key to when things will improve.
At first glance, you would think crypto sentiment would be excited right now.
• $BTC Close to ATH again
• Memecoins are exploding
• Celebrities promote cryptocurrencies again
But this is far from the truth.
If you dig a little deeper, it's not hard to find out why.
Most retail investors don’t hold large amounts of Bitcoin; they hold Altcoin.
Altcoin have been significantly underperforming in this cycle so far.
Let’s take a closer look at the data that supports this idea.
Understanding this data is important to understanding where we are in the cycle.
1. OTHERS/BTC is now below the level in October 2023 (8 months ago).
OTHERS refers to the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10 tokens. 
The picture above is worth a thousand words.
1) Since FTX’s collapse, only 8 tokens have broken their previous all-time highs against BTC. 
2) Crypto YouTube views lag far behind #Bitcoin price.
2021 $BTC is $70,000: 4 million views per day.
2024 $BTC is $70,000: 800,000 views per day. 
This suggests low retail interest (likely a reflection of poor performance of Altcoin).
Compared to BTC, which is near its all-time high, the Altcoin is still 70% below its previous high.
These charts clearly show the difference in price performance. 
Since BTC began its strong rally from $27,000 in October, Altcoin have not seen a sustained rise.
So, these are interesting data points – and it’s clear that Altcoin are severely underperforming $BTC, but before we look ahead – it’s important to understand why.
1. This is a cycle dominated by the Bitcoin narrative.
The narrative driving BTC to new all-time highs is the spot ETF narrative, and the corresponding strong inflows.
While BTC and Altcoin are correlated, there is no broader market catalyst as strong as BTC’s right now.
2. Specific narratives perform significantly better than others (with the main narrative lagging behind).
So far, meme, AI, and RWA have been the clear narrative leaders of this cycle.
If you don’t have adequate capital allocated in these areas, you may feel FOMO and a strong temptation to rebalance your investments. 
3. The dilution has reached the highest level ever.
The crypto market created nearly 1 million new crypto tokens in May.
This is 2 times the total amount created on Ethereum between 2015 and 2023.
This is crazy. 
(This chart does not include Solana — the numbers for that chain are staggering).
4. Token unlocks are flooding the market.
Currently, the daily unlocking volume is about 200 million US dollars (the following data is only for major tokens).
This is new selling pressure that continues to suppress market gains.
The more tokens that are continuously launched, the more unlocked volume will flood into the market.
So, to summarize:
• This is a cycle dominated by the Bitcoin narrative
• Only a few narratives are implemented
• New tokens are being launched rapidly
• Dilution is at its highest level ever
Taking all the above factors into consideration, it is not surprising that Altcoin are performing poorly.
But right now, you’re probably all wondering this – will this situation ever get better?
If so, when can we expect the situation to improve?
Lately, there has been some disagreement on where we are from an Altcoin perspective.
This is mainly because the returns of this cycle have been very unevenly distributed.
Cred explains this very well in this post .
But let's look at the facts.
In the previous two cycles, the Altcoin peaked exactly 546 days after the halving.
If this cycle follows the same trend, it would indicate that Altcoin will peak in October 2025. 
For various reasons (accelerating cycle, macro factors, etc.), I think we will peak sooner than this, and I also admit that looking at 2 data points is too simplistic.
But - from an Altcoin perspective, we are still very early in this cycle.
In the first half of the cycle, Bitcoin will naturally lead.
In fact, this is healthy for the market structure.
Altcoin usually don’t start outperforming until late in the market.
But does this mean all Altcoin will rise?
Most likely not.
As mentioned before, market dilution is a major factor – more than ever before, so asset selection is critical.
If you want to try to transcend this cycle, you have to be in the right narrative.
