Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通的经济学家表示，周三的消费者通胀报告和美联储会议增加了首次降息会是在 9 月的风险，不过他们的基线预测仍是 11 月降息。 “总的来说，虽然今年的点阵图中值略有意外，但我们今天下午对美联储的看法并没有太大不同，”摩根大通首席美国经济学家 Michael Feroli 在报告中写道，“我们继续认为在 11 月份首次降息，在今天上午之后，风险可能更倾向于 9 月而不是 12 月”。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通的经济学家表示，周三的消费者通胀报告和美联储会议增加了首次降息会是在 9 月的风险，不过他们的基线预测仍是 11 月降息。“总的来说，虽然今年的点阵图中值略有意外，但我们今天下午对美联储的看法并没有太大不同，”摩根大通首席美国经济学家 Michael Feroli 在报告中写道，“我们继续认为在 11 月份首次降息，在今天上午之后，风险可能更倾向于 9 月而不是 12 月”。（金十）

摩根大通：美联储9月首次降息的预期存在风险

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan Chase economists said Wednesday's consumer inflation report and the Fed meeting increased the risk that the first rate cut would be in September, but their baseline forecast is still a rate cut in November. "Overall, although the median of the dot plot this year was slightly unexpected, our view on the Fed this afternoon is not much different," Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a report, "We continue to believe that the first rate cut will be in November, and after this morning, the risk may be more inclined to September rather than December." (Jinshi)

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan Chase economists said Wednesday&#39;s consumer inflation report and the Fed meeting increased the risk that the first rate cut would be in September, but their baseline forecast is still a rate cut in November. &quot;Overall, although the median of the dot plot this year was slightly unexpected, our view on the Fed this afternoon is not much different,&quot; Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a report, &quot;We continue to believe that the first rate cut will be in November, and after this morning, the risk may be more inclined to September rather than December.&quot; (Jinshi)

JPMorgan: Expectations of the Fed's first rate cut in September are at risk

Odaily Odaily News: Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Cfra Research, said that inflation was unexpectedly low, causing futures prices to rise, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply. This will ultimately benefit the Federal Reserve. At this point, the dot plot may have been voted through, and it is more likely that there will be two rate cuts in 2024 rather than one, but we still believe that we will cut interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter by mid-2026. The inflation data allows investors to be more optimistic about the possibility of lower interest rates at the end of the year. Risk assets have therefore risen sharply, and growth sectors will also perform strongly within an hour after the market opens. (Jinshi)

Market news: The Fed's dot plot may have been voted through at this time, and there may be 2 interest rate cuts this year

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.1%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.1%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 38.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 56.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.1%. (Jinshi)

After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.1%.

Odaily Odaily News Analyst Enda Curran said that in the context of the debate about the Fed's rate cut, a rate cut in July is more or less impossible, so the question is how today's CPI data will drive expectations of a rate cut in September. A set of hot data will definitely tend to support a rate cut, but equally, a lower overall data will also make people believe that the anti-inflation process is back on track. (Jinshi)