The United States released the latest CPI data report at 20:30 last night. The report showed that CPI in May increased by 3.3% year-on-year, lower than the previous value and the expected value of 3.4%, hitting the lowest level in nearly three years, indicating that the cooling of U.S. inflation is continuing.
Later, at the FOMC meeting at 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, deciding to keep the federal benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, achieving a 7-day freeze in interest rates. Although in line with market expectations, the latest interest rate dot plot shows that Federal Reserve policymakers expect to cut interest rates only once this year, or no more than once.
After the release of the CPI data, as market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts improved significantly, the cryptocurrency market received a shot in the arm, and the price of Bitcoin rose urgently by 3.3%, reaching a high of $70,000 around 23:00 last night. However, perhaps because the Fed's dot plot lowered expectations for rate cuts this year, the price of Bitcoin fell back later, and almost all of the gains were given back. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at $67,653, up 0.44% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
From the current 4H level chart of Bitcoin, we can see that the DIF line is below the DEA line, which indicates that the current market sentiment is biased towards the short side. However, the length of the red column is gradually decreasing, showing that the short force is weakening. If the MACD line continues to move upward and crosses the signal line, this may be a buy signal, indicating that the market may turn to the long side.
However, on the KDJ indicator, the K line has crossed the D line downward, and the J line is also falling, which indicates that the short-term short-term strength is strong. If the KDJ indicator continues to maintain this trend, the price of Bitcoin may continue to fall.
The current price has rebounded from the lower track and is approaching the middle track. The Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, which means that a large fluctuation may occur soon. If the price can break through the middle track and stabilize, it means that the market may reverse and the price may move to the upper track. On the contrary, if the price fails to break through the middle track or fails to stabilize after breaking through and falls back quickly, it may indicate that the resistance of the middle track is strong, and we need to be vigilant against the price continuing to fall.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
On the current 1-hour chart, we can see that the trend analysis of Bitcoin is quite clear. First, the DIF line is below the DEA line, which clearly shows the current downward price trend. However, it is worth noting that the DIF line is gradually approaching the DEA line, which may be a precursor to the golden cross, which is usually regarded as a strong buy signal. At the same time, the green columns on the MACD histogram are gradually shortening, which shows that the downward momentum is weakening, suggesting that the price may be about to rebound.
Looking at the KDJ indicator, both the K line and the D line are currently below 50, which usually means that the market may be oversold and there is a possibility of a rebound. The J line has rebounded from the bottom, which further confirms this possibility.
Finally, we focus on the Bollinger Bands indicator. Bitcoin is currently running between the middle and lower bands, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is gradually flattening, which indicates that market volatility is weakening. The price began to rebound after touching the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, which further confirms the support of the lower band. Taking these factors into account, Bitcoin may fluctuate between the middle and lower bands in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis: According to the 1H level observation, Bitcoin may rebound in the short term, but the rebound may be limited. The MACD golden cross and the upward KDJ indicator confirm the rebound trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near the middle track of the Bollinger Band. If the price breaks through and stabilizes above the middle track, the rebound may continue. However, at the 4H level, short-term fluctuations should be closely watched, especially if the lines in the KDJ indicator cross downward again, it may indicate that the rebound has failed and the price will fall again.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference
Bitcoin rebounded to around 68400, short, target 66650, defense 68800. (Yesterday, due to CPI data and interest rate decision, the suggestion was lost, but fortunately the general direction was correct, but the corresponding point was not given. Daxian apologizes to everyone here.)
Writing time: (2024-06-13, 15:40) (Text-Daxian Talks about Coins)
