Today is Thursday, June 13, 2024. The CPI data released at 8:30 last night was expected to be 3.4, and the published value was 3.3, which was lower than expected and a big positive. So as soon as the news came out, BTC immediately rose to around $70,000, and Ethereum also rose from around $3,500 to $3,660. At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve released information showing that interest rates would remain unchanged, which was in line with expectations. The decline in CPI data inflation was also good for the market. The expectation of a rate cut in September had reached 70%. Unexpectedly, as soon as Powell spoke in the early morning, the expectation of a rate cut in September was almost in jeopardy. There was only one rate cut this year. Whether it will be more depends on the data! What a Tai Chi. There were two rate cuts this year, but it was said to be one. The market fell again! BTC broke through 67,000 again in the early trading, and is now consolidating around 67,300. Ethereum also retreated to around 3,486! However, the rate cut will be raised to 4 times next year, and the bull market battle line will be extended again! 2025 Bull! Therefore, subsequent data is particularly important, affecting whether the interest rate cut will be advanced or increased.
The biggest thing that happened in the market today should be the news that the founder of CRV was liquidated in the morning. For a project like this where even the founder of the chain is powerless to save the situation, it is really enough. It is better for everyone not to touch this kind of currency. I have participated in some of this currency before, but fortunately, I don’t have many positions in the car at present. The maximum drop of CRV in the morning was nearly 40%. It is estimated that all the longs have been liquidated. Looking back, CRV once reached a market value of 3 billion US dollars. It is also a top project in DEFI. If it falls like this, it really makes me feel that all the uncertainties in this market are not controllable. Therefore, what we can do is to do a good job of risk control, position management, and firmly not touch the contract. The most critical thing is to protect the principal!
Judging from yesterday's CPI data and the data released by the Federal Reserve, they are actually quite contradictory. It is precisely because of these contradictory data that the market uncertainty is created. As investors, we should not be led by the news. What is important is that we should have our own judgment. To deal with such a market, I personally think that the best way to operate is to trade in waves. Sell when it rises, and buy it back when it falls. Yesterday, there was a wave of rise at 8:30, and I also partially took profits on some of my positions that were closed at low levels. Today, the market fell back again, and then gradually bought back, and when the market rises again, the market will be sold out again. Therefore, as long as the operation is proper, we can find ways to make profits whether it rises or falls!
According to previous expectations, this round of market decline can be seen as the second retracement in the downward trend, so the retracement strength is relatively limited. From a time perspective, it has been nearly two months since the BTC halving. From the trend of the previous halving cycle, BTC rose from $9,000 to $12,000 in the two months after the halving. So can this wave of BTC also rise from $70,000 to $100,000? Let's wait and see!
From a macro perspective, nothing important will happen next month, and the short-term negative news has basically been exhausted. Therefore, after the release of yesterday's data, the market volatility has basically explored the recent highs or lows. The BTC of 70,000 US dollars is the most reference, and the support below 67,000 is the reference. Once it breaks through and stabilizes at 70,000 US dollars, it means the arrival of a new round of trend. Therefore, everyone can focus on the breakthrough of 70,000 US dollars! The panic of CRV's sharp drop in the morning also explored the lows of some currencies. Unless there is a black swan, I personally think that it will not fall much even if it falls. When the market is in a bull market cycle, every decline is a good time for us to layout. Therefore, don't hesitate during the decline of the market, cover the position when it is necessary to cover the position, layout when it is necessary to layout, control your position, take profit and stop loss in the short term, and don't chase the rise and fall!
Don’t wait until the market starts to rise before you regret not building a position and covering a position in time. Buy when the market is falling and sell when the market is rising. Just do it boldly!
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