The market conditions in the past three months have been tough. BTC has peaked for three months and has not yet reached a new high. Judging from the trend of the Nasdaq, BTC should not be too far away. There is no good news for Ethereum’s ETF yet, so everything is worth looking forward to. In fact, there is really nothing much to say about virtual currency, just be patient and hold your positions!
There is no market that only falls but never rises, so after the recent continuous correction, there will definitely be an opportunity for a rebound! Be patient and hold your position! Wait for the wind to come!
Bitcoin broke through 66,000 last week. As I said last week, after breaking through, it will look for support again and will enter a month-long adjustment period. Currently, it is in the stage of finding support, so keep watching.
From the daily level, it is not very optimistic, and everyone should be mentally prepared. However, the short-term trend cannot change the long-term trend, and the market outlook in the third and fourth quarters remains firmly optimistic.
The U.S. stock market seems to be quite divergent from the trend of cryptocurrencies recently. The S&P is on the road to setting new highs, but BTC continues to fall.
This is easy to understand. After all, in addition to the hype about the expectation of interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock market also has fundamentals and real corporate profits. Holding a press conference today and announcing a large order tomorrow can support the stock price.
The top three U.S. stock giants (Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia) account for more than 20% of the total market value of the S&P
Any one of the three giants can protect the index, so it is not difficult to understand why the S&P and Nasdaq are so strong.
In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is much weaker and has been falling and moving sideways for a long time, while the Russell 2000's trend is even uglier. It has not reached a new high but has continued to fall.
BTC’s trend is actually closer to IWM, which is why we said before that it is like small and medium-cap stocks, also waiting for the spring of interest rate cuts.
Although the S&P is still strong, there is a risk of divergence and the rise is highly concentrated. If the gains of large technology stocks are difficult to sustain, there is a risk of a correction.
However, looking back at the past, its divergence can be so strong that it only starts to pull back after multiple divergences.
In an election year, we don’t expect a big correction, a 5-8% correction would be great.
It’s just that if even the U.S. stock market falls back, the currency will be even worse off.
BTC had a small crash on Friday, which may be related to the political turmoil in France. It tested the support of MA120. The current support is effective, and the last round of support rebounded above this moving average.
If it still wants to hold up this time, it needs to quickly recover above POC-67000. If it consolidates for too long, it will still weaken downward. The support of 64800 and 62600 will also be seen downward.
I don’t know when I will leave this channel of shock. I will buy the dips in batches downwards and take profits in batches upwards. I will just stay alive first!
An analysis of the market conditions in June and the second half of the year
1. From a historical perspective, there are many cases of a 50% correction in a bull market, and the sideways period is generally 2-4 months, while the outbreak period is generally 1-2 months, with an increase of about 5 times. It has been at the bottom range for 2 months now, and perhaps the dark moment will soon pass.
2. Currently, many altcoins have already fallen back to the bottom, and it is meaningless to cut losses at this time.
3. Regarding the expectation of interest rate cuts, there will definitely be at least one in the second half of this year. Because of the election, the probability of a rate cut in November is very high. The Ethereum ETF will also be approved in the second half of the year, which is also a long-term positive. There will be 3-4 interest rate cuts next year due to the US election at the end of the year, so the third quarter is a good time to allocate.
4. From the monthly line of Bitcoin, the bull market is still there. Currently, the monthly line is just going sideways to lay the foundation for the next wave of rise. Even if there is a correction, $60,000 is the limit.
5. The main option positions in the futures market are concentrated on June 28, with the biggest pain point being $55,000. Data shows that the nominal amount of option positions on June 28 was $6.564 billion, of which the number of call options was 65,800, worth $4.454 billion, accounting for 67% of the total nominal amount. This shows that the market is bullish in late June.
Many people began to enter a period of confusion in the following market. Although BTC did not move much, the trend of copycat stocks was about to return to zero. They began to regret it. If they had known earlier, they would have made much more money by investing cross margin BTC and Ethereum.
This is indeed a fact. The trend over the past few years has fully demonstrated that the majority of small investors in the market cannot outperform long-term holders of big and small BTC over a long period of time. However, people are the same year after year, but the coin speculators are different. There are always a group of newcomers entering and a group of old people leaving. If there are no new opportunities to get rich quickly, it will not attract a larger amount of water to flow into the pool of the crypto. Judging from the success of the BTC ETF, no matter what the short-term market is like, the big bull has not really arrived. The road to Rome has been opened, and the big army has not officially set off yet. Just be patient and truly experience the change of the four seasons of bull and bear.
This week, we still focus on two important data:
Retail sales data will be released at 8:30 p.m. on Tuesday.
The expected rate is 0.30%. If it is higher than expected, it will be negative, and if it is lower than expected, it will be positive.
Also, the PMI data will be released at 9:45 pm on Friday.
Higher than expected is negative, lower than expected is positive.
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