Analysis has shown that if the price of Bitcoin strongly deviates from the $65,800 range, the price may fall by 8 to 12%, up to the $60,000 range. This is because the upward momentum has weakened as the demand for Bitcoin in the market has decreased.
What's New: CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency on-chain data platform, analyzed in its weekly report published on the 18th that there are limited but clear downside signals. He also said that if a correction begins, it could fall to the $60,000 level.
They cited the on-chain realized price for short-term holders as the main basis for their forecast. The on-chain realized price for short-term holders refers to the average purchase price of Bitcoin for short-term holders of less than 6 months, excluding unspent Bitcoin. It is used as a psychological support line for the Bitcoin price.
According to CryptoQuant data, as of the 18th, the on-chain realized price for short-term holders is approximately $65,800. Shortly after the report was published, the Bitcoin price fell below this price range. As of 2 am on the 19th, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around the $64,600 level. The psychological support line has already been broken.
Background to the Problem: It wasn't like this just a week ago. The price of Bitcoin, which had exceeded the $70,000 level twice in June due to expectations of an interest rate cut from the United States, eventually failed to break through the previous high of $73,500 and fell back below. CryptoQuant interpreted the cause of this situation as weakening demand.
Simply put, the exact reason is unknown, but traders are not accumulating Bitcoin, and whale investors are not showing relatively impressive activity. Whale investors recorded a monthly increase in Bitcoin holdings of 6-10% in January, when the price of Bitcoin exceeded its previous high.
Important point: Another issue is that stablecoin liquidity, which affects market buying pressure, continues to slow. The amount of newly inflowed stablecoin liquidity is interpreted as preliminary purchase volume. CryptoQuant pointed out that the 60-day market capitalization growth rate of Tether (USDT), the No. 1 stablecoin in market capitalization, has decreased from $12.6 billion at the end of April to $3.7 billion currently. This is the slowest pace since November 2023.
The same goes for the demand from American investors, symbolized by the Bitcoin spot ETF. They explained that, according to the bull market cycle indicator, Bitcoin is still in the bull market, but the momentum is not great.
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