Yesterday (JUN 18), the monthly rate of US retail sales in May, which was called "horror data" by the market, was lower than expected by 0.1%, and the previous value was revised down from 0% to -0.2%. After the data was released, the yield of US bonds fell slightly, giving up yesterday's gains, and the three major stock indexes closed slightly higher. On the other hand, many Fed officials gave speeches, expressing the conservative view that it would take "a few more months" or "a few quarters" to see data supporting interest rate cuts.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
In terms of digital currencies, the market's focus over the past day has been on Ethereum. The first thing to mention is that the SEC has ended its investigation into the Ethereum 2.0 blockchain ecosystem. Ethereum developer Consensys tweeted: "The SEC Enforcement Division has notified us that it will end its investigation into Ethereum 2.0. This means that the SEC will not charge that the sale of Ethereum is a securities transaction." The market sees this as an important positive, pushing the price of Ethereum to rebound, rising more than 3.+% on the day.
In addition, James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, wrote that Ethereum spot may be launched before July 4, which once again attracted traders to place bets. It is worth mentioning that Lark Davis, a cryptocurrency analyst, pointed out that Glassnode data showed that the balance of ETH exchanges has reached an 8-year low, and currently only 10% of ETH is circulating on exchanges. At the same time, he also pointed out that if the Ethereum spot ETF begins trading in the next two weeks, a large amount of institutional funds will flow into the market, and a large-scale supply shock is coming.
Source: TradingView, ETH price vs BTC price trend comparison
In terms of options, affected by macro news, the ETH option implied volatility curve flattened and rose, reaching about 65% overall. Large call option transactions were hot, with a total of 30,500 purchases of forward 27 SEP 24-4000-C and a single purchase of 7,000 28 JUN 24-4000-C. The call options of the week were also boosted by price increases and were very popular among retail investors, pushing the smile curve to tilt towards call options as a whole.
Source: Deribit (as of 19 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus, ETH IV levels have risen significantly
Source: SignalPlus, ETH Vol Skew tilts towards calls
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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