MA120, namely the 120-day moving average, is a long-term moving average indicator in technical analysis. When the price crosses above or below MA120, it often indicates a change in the overall market trend.
Binance data shows that the current BTC MA120 price is about US$65,910, while BTC is quoted at 64,746, closing below MA120 for five consecutive days.
It is generally believed that the lowest starting point of this bull market is US$15,476. What will be the interaction between BTC price and MA120 afterwards?
In January 23, the BTC price broke through MA120 for the first time.
In March 2023, BTC fell and touched MA120, and immediately rebounded.
In June 2023, BTC fell below MA120 and crossed MA120 again 15 days later.
In August 2023, BTC fell below MA120 again, and 60 days later, it crossed above and continued to rise.
At this time, BTC was quoted at US$28,600, and then continued to rise for 6 months. The bull market was established and BTC reached a high of US$73,777.
In May 24, BTC fell and pulled back, and then rose again after touching MA120.
In June 24, BTC fell below MA120. 
If the confirmation point of this bull market is in August 2023, and the starting point of the unilateral rise is here, then it means that the BTC price has never fallen below the daily MA120.
It is reported that in fact, in any cycle of BTC history, the daily MA120 is a very important bull-bear line.
In the unilateral rise of each bull market, the situation of falling below this bull-bear line has only occurred twice, once in 2021, on May 19. The other time is now.
Here comes the problem.
If BTC is still in a unilateral bull market, MA120 should be unbreakable. If we break below it, it is no longer a unilateral bull market at this moment, and there may even be a big correction.
There are many discussions on Twitter about MA120. Let’s take a look:
Bitcoin Demon:
How to judge the trend of the currency market? The simplest way is to use the MA120 moving average. Taking the Bitcoin daily chart as an example, we can see that the MA120 moving average is above the rising trend, and the MA120 moving average is below the falling trend. In the rising trend, you can pull back to long or roll long. In the falling trend, you should avoid long and look for opportunities to go short when the moving average is touched, or wait until it stands above the MA120 moving average before operating.
Judging from the current trend, only Ethereum performed well, and the daily MA120 moving average pin was a good bottoming signal, which may be related to the US SEC's approval of ETFs on July 2. However, BTC lost the daily MA60 and MA120 moving averages and was forced to stop the leveraged position.
Crypto_Painter:
It can be seen that by 2014, the market structure of BTC began to gradually become traceable, and the price began to fluctuate to a certain extent with reference to MA120. However, it is undeniable that the break of MA120 always seems to bring about an accelerated decline and violent rebound in the short-term market.
Statistics can be found at:
When the BTC daily price is confirmed to fall below MA120:
The probability of maintaining volatility and re-entering the bullish trend is: 33.33%;
The probability of a deep correction but the price bottoming out is: 19.04%;
The probability that a deep correction will directly lead to the end of the bull market is: 47.61%.
Therefore, when the price of BTC confirms to fall below MA120:
The probability of a deep callback is: 19.04% + 47.61% = 66.67%;
The probability of maintaining volatility or rebounding directly is: 33.33%.
Calculated in this way, the current daily situation of BTC shows that the winning rate of long positions is one-third, while the winning rate of short is two-thirds.
“A chart to explain the defense battle of the current Sunline MA120!
If the bull game between the bulls and the bears is a war, then the current position of 65475 is a key battle.
The outcome of this battle will determine the target of the BTC price in the next 3 months, 51000 or 86000;
Firmly bullish friends, here is likely to be the rising point of a trend in the future, and firmly bearish friends, are waiting with cups in their hands.”
President of Bit:
The recent trend of Bitcoin is not good. The daily line fell below MA120. In addition, the Bitcoin ETF has had negative net outflows for four consecutive days, which makes the situation even worse. In the short term, BTC’s second retracement will still focus on the previous low of 64,000. As long as it does not fall below, there is no need to panic.
Keyshotvv:
Those who are getting on the MA120 to make a rebound can withdraw now, but don’t let it fall and scream again.
Jordan Wang:
To be honest, don’t have any illusions in the short term. The MA120 of BTC cannot be recovered, and everything else is nonsense.
