Source: Hu Feitong
Everyone has a feeling that the market is not rising anymore. BTC has been fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000 for three consecutive months. AltCoins had some momentum in the early stage, but now they have no stamina and are rushing to fall. Newly listed currencies can't hold on either, and they peak as soon as they are launched. The entire market is like a pot of lukewarm water, neither hot nor cold.
Maybe for many people, the term "lukewarm" is a little too peaceful. Because recently, many people have been cursing. There are many people who curse those who shorted and were reversed; it has become a trend to curse Binance for listing too many coins and causing the market to lose liquidity; there are also many people who curse KOLs for leading the trend and causing heavy losses.
For these people, the market feels like the bull market is over and the bear market is long. There is still no heat. People who think this way come to this market to make money. It is a bull market, money is everywhere, and every project should be able to rise and make money. This is the only gamble in life. After making money, you will be financially free. You come to this market to make money. You are full of confidence, take out most of your assets, even add leverage, take on debt, and rush in.
Thank you for your courage. The sickle of this market has been prepared long ago. Various routines have been staged one after another, and new concepts have emerged one after another, with the goal of us leeks. Don’t we need a new narrative? This is easy to do. Bitcoin’s second layer, AI, DePin, ReStaking, or just Meme, under the banner of fair launch, against the banner of anti-VC, have all appeared on the stage.
The most important thing is KOL, market promotion, community shill, and exchange listing. Technology, innovation, business model, and user scenarios are not important. What matters is the game. Everyone knows that they are all here to make money. They are competing to run faster. Believe that the project party will definitely pull the market, believe that there will be early dividends, and believe that there will be no losses in the bull market. So you set up a cat-stroking studio, listen to the KOLs, enter various communities, and look for various on-chain meme. You don’t want to make 3 or 5 times the money, but a hundred times in one day.
But why didn’t it make money?
Here is a question: Is it possible for everyone to make money? Well, it should be possible, that is, the entire market rises sharply, and everyone makes money on paper and is happy, although most of them cannot withdraw it. However, the entire market does not rise. If you want to make money, someone must lose money. This logic is simple, right?
Why do you make money while others lose money? Do the project owners want to make money? Do the exchanges want to make money? Do the KOLs want to make money? Do the VCs want to make money? They all want to make money, but whose money do they want to make? Of course, we the leeks. Speaking of which, most of them are professional teams, so they know the market better and have more tricks.
So is there still a chance?
In my opinion, Web3 is a development trend, blockchain is a technological revolution, and its application scope is getting wider and wider. Digital currency is gradually being accepted by the mainstream market, and the approval of BTC and ETH spot ETFs is a clear proof of this. There is nothing wrong with this direction. It is an emerging market full of opportunities, but wherever there are a lot of opportunities, there is a lot of speculation, and it is easy to step on mines. If you want to follow the market and reap the dividends of development, you still need to open your eyes and keep a calm mind.
I think there are some common sense that may need to be mentioned, although it may not be useful:
The market is not going down : Bitcoin halving has just happened two months ago, and the price is relatively stable. Spot ETFs have been approved, and market enthusiasm and expectations are still high. From the past, the market one and a half years after the halving is worth looking forward to. But it is unrealistic and impossible to expect the market to only rise and not fall;
There is no free lunch in the world : you are here to invest, not to pick up money. There is not so much money in this world for you to pick up. Most of the wallets you see may have a trap behind them. It is necessary to do some research on your own. Airdrops have been very popular in the past two years. Why do airdrops exist? Because you can bring user value and community value. If this value no longer exists, it is normal for the airdrop rules to change. The anti-witch level of recent project airdrops is getting higher and higher, and it is also forced;
Don’t think about getting rich overnight : getting rich overnight is a gambler’s mentality, and you will often lose everything in the end. It is more important to invest steadily and see the general trend.
The value of the project is still the first priority : if you look at history, all projects that can survive and go through bull and bear cycles must have brought value to the industry, especially technological innovation or business model innovation; most of the projects that rely on concepts cannot last long;
Decentralization and security foundation: This is worth emphasizing repeatedly. Web3 is a decentralized network. Without decentralization, it is a pseudo-Web3. Without decentralization, there can be no Trustless and no security foundation. Of course, although Rollup and DAPP do not have chains, they are based on the security of Layer 1 to ensure Trustless. The security of Layer 1 is intuitively important. This is also why BTC is the most valuable. Its decentralization and total investment in network construction are unmatched;
Open source code : If a decentralized project is not open source, it is basically a joke. A project that is not open source is not worthy of being Web3. You are just an Internet company, and you are not willing to be regulated. What can we trust you? On the other hand, if a project dares to open source, it must have strong strength, great technological innovation and technical threshold, and a trustworthy team. The pattern must be so high that it is difficult for others to copy it. Such a project is much more reliable.
Project feasibility : This is specifically mentioned because too many Web3 projects are just talking about stories and visions, and some projects don’t even have a technical team. Projects that are not technically feasible are often closed source projects, because once they are open source, they may be caught in technical loopholes or fail to achieve Trustless, and the value of the project will be seen through.
The above is purely my personal opinion, please do not take it personally. It is for reference only.
This article is purely an essay and does not provide any investment advice. You can just take a look and laugh it off.
