Odaily星球日报讯 10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 表示：“从技术上讲，比特币似乎遵循双顶（double top）结构，而支撑位正在接受测试。这种图表形式应该是我们的基本情况（除非它变得无效）。这种格局很容易跌至 5 万美元，甚至是 4.5 万美元。” Thielen 补充道：“今年晚些时候美国大选和 CPI 应该会看涨，但我们仍有可能经历更剧烈的回调。”（CoinDesk）

Odaily星球日报讯 10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 表示：“从技术上讲，比特币似乎遵循双顶（double top）结构，而支撑位正在接受测试。这种图表形式应该是我们的基本情况（除非它变得无效）。这种格局很容易跌至 5 万美元，甚至是 4.5 万美元。”Thielen 补充道：“今年晚些时候美国大选和 CPI 应该会看涨，但我们仍有可能经历更剧烈的回调。”（CoinDesk）

分析：比特币价格走势形成双顶，可能跌至5万美元

Odaily Odaily News 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said: "Technically, Bitcoin seems to follow a Double Top structure, and the support level is being tested. This chart form should be our base case (unless it becomes invalid). This pattern can easily fall to $50,000 or even $45,000." Thielen added: "The US election and CPI later this year should be bullish, but we may still experience a more severe correction." (CoinDesk)

Odaily Odaily News 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said: &quot;Technically, Bitcoin seems to follow a Double Top structure, and the support level is being tested. This chart form should be our base case (unless it becomes invalid). This pattern can easily fall to $50,000 or even $45,000.&quot; Thielen added: &quot;The US election and CPI later this year should be bullish, but we may still experience a more severe correction.&quot; (CoinDesk)

Analysis: Bitcoin price action forms Double Top, could drop to $50,000

Odaily Odaily reported that Bitcoin.com News disclosed that Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, analysts at asset management company AllianceBernstein, predicted that the price of Bitcoin could reach $1 million in 2033 and reach a cyclical high of $200,000 by 2025, citing strong demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs as a key driver.

Asset management company AllianceBernstein: Bitcoin price will reach $200,000 in 2025

Binance market data shows that BTC fell below $63,000 for a short time and then rebounded slightly, now at $63,065, a 24-hour drop of 2.12%. Coinglass market data shows that in the past hour, the entire network has liquidated $13.84 million, of which BTC liquidated $8.54 million, long orders of $12.9 million, and short orders of $940,000.

BTC briefly fell below $63,000 before recovering slightly

From the analysis of on-chain behavior, how far may BTC fall in extreme cases in the bull market?
The overall logic is to evaluate from two aspects based on on-chain behavior analysis and historical data.
Method 1: From the perspective of STH-MVRV (short-term holders)
Short-term holders are important participants in the bull-bear transition, so the performance of STH-MVRV has extremely important reference value in the bull market cycle. I have used 2 tweets to explain its principles and functions in detail. New friends can refer to the following link, and I will not repeat it here.
About STH...