Bitcoin rebounded from the key demand of $63,000 to $65,000. If it can maintain this position, then a big rebound is about to start, but it is not optimistic at present. The big market still needs time to settle.
Many group friends left messages saying that they couldn't bear it any longer. I didn't know what to say. It's up to you to decide whether to stay or leave. It's not appropriate to persuade people to cut their losses at this point. If I persuade people to hold on and the crypto fails later, I'll be scolded again.
When making an exit decision, you need to think about one thing: what will the money from the sale be used for? The returns on financial management are pitifully low now. If the returns are slightly higher, the principal may be in danger. As for A-shares, they may not be as good as the crypto.
Some people are quick in and quick out, always judging the market. What is the latest style, what will be the next style, how to play the switch. They switch positions back and forth. This type of people is the majority in the crypto.
They have no basic judgment ability. Once there are no rules, everyone can participate, everyone is a leek, and even the entry and exit require the knowledge of the charlatans on Weibo. They have feet and brains, but lack thinking.
Dazhuzi recently saw a trick about poker. This trick is also suitable for a group of people in the crypto, especially for those who enter and exit the market quickly. Learning this little trick may make you more adept at short-term operations, or it may not. However, there is no harm in learning more general rules. Let me first introduce the rules. Texas Hold'em is a popular poker variant. At the beginning of each round of the game, each player will receive two cards and then decide whether to bet.
Amateurs are more likely to continue playing, while professionals will fold immediately 85% of the time. The first thing that will strike you is how often they fold early.
Of course, this doesn't mean that casinos, where big money is spent, are for the faint of heart. It's just that most cards are likely to lose and are not worth betting on, and professional players are better at seeing this.
Of course, this doesn't mean that high-stakes casinos are frequented by the faint of heart. It's just that most hands are too easy to lose to be worth betting on, and professional players are better at judging this situation.
In fact, the difference between professional players and amateur players can be distinguished. Amateur players are very gambling, while professional players know that they are investing. Once a situation that is not easy for an investment player appears, they will decisively fold and leave the market, waiting for the next opportunity. Amateur players think that no matter what cards appear, there will be a reversal, which is gambling.
Many factors work against someone considering quitting, forcing them to behave in a foolish way. I think this applies to poker players who are hesitant to fold, and it also applies to investors who are considering whether to exit a position.
Now think about how many people are unwilling to set a stop loss for a contract, so selling is much more difficult than buying.
Dazhuzi thinks it is "loss aversion" that is to blame. Dazhuzi himself will also suffer from the situation of losing more than losing more. The core reason is that people hate losses much more than they enjoy the same gains. The second is "certain loss aversion". People hate certain losses more, even if the uncertain losses may be larger.
Once people enter the crypto casino and suffer losses, they value what they already have rather than what they don’t have.
There is a basis for this. Alex Imas of the University of Chicago studied the behavior of investors who set take-profit and stop-loss orders when entering a trade. Although investors are supposed to exit their positions when they reach a specified profit or loss point, thereby eliminating harmful biases, Imas found that although investors set take-profit lines, they are rarely triggered in actual operations because they have already sold manually during the rising stage and are unwilling to risk the gains they have already made. When prices fall, they often cancel their stop-loss orders and continue to hold, preferring to continue gambling rather than taking losses.
Is it similar to what everyone does? This is human nature. People are afraid of losing something.
Under the influence of these factors, exiting a losing position becomes a difficult decision. In the case of a paper loss, you must turn it into a certain loss and give up an asset that you value more than any equivalent alternative.
Let me quote a classic saying here: Even though we know so many principles, we tend to forget our original vows when we put them into practice.
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