According to a report by The Block , research and brokerage firm Bernstein believes that despite the recent market correction, the cycle of structural adoption of cryptocurrencies remains intact, and if U.S. electoral sentiment shifts to the Republican Party, cryptocurrencies will become a "Trump trade." Bernstein emphasized that the new cryptocurrency bull cycle is a multi-year opportunity and that recent weakness could be a bargain-hunting opportunity. And they still maintain their 2025 Bitcoin price target of $200,000.
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ToggleBitcoin ETF adoption will increase in second half of the year
Since its launch in January, total net inflows into the Bitcoin Spot ETF have totaled more than $14 billion, which was the main catalyst for Bitcoin's 75% rise in the first quarter. However, these funds have now experienced six consecutive days of net daily outflows of more than $100 million, totaling nearly $1 billion.
While some Bitcoin ETF inflows are driven by basis trades between CME futures and spot Bitcoin ETFs, this suggests that actual demand-led inflows may be much smaller. However, analysts believe that adoption is adoption, regardless of the reason, and this has led to an increase in ETF liquidity.
The report also mentioned that many large private banking platforms have not yet whitelisted Bitcoin ETFs, and they expect to receive approval in the third/fourth quarter. At present, Bitcoin ETFs only account for 0.1-0.20% of the existing wealth advisor sample, so there is still room for increase in the penetration and allocation of new advisors, and Bernstein expects it may reach 2-3% of the investment portfolio.
Will the Ethereum ETF disappoint?
Another bearish argument in the market right now is that the launch of an Ethereum spot ETF will be a “little thing” and its traffic has been disappointing compared to Bitcoin. However, while the Ethereum ETF may not see as many spot conversions due to the lack of staking functionality, analysts still expect demand to come from the same sources as the Bitcoin ETF, albeit on a smaller scale.
Analysts say Ethereum is a stronger use case as a tokenization platform, both for stablecoin payments and real-world assets. But they added that regulatory clarity is needed and could improve with the Republican Party winning the presidential election in November and the Trump campaign now openly "supporting cryptocurrencies."
‘Trump Trade’ Will Benefit Cryptocurrencies
Bernstein believes that while the Ethereum ETF may be weak at first, if electoral sentiment shifts to the Republican Party, cryptocurrencies will eventually become a "Trump trade" and the hope for a favorable regulatory regime will change the application cases around blockchain. narrative, ETH will be able to gain attention.
Bernstein believes the new cryptocurrency bull cycle is a multi-year opportunity and that recent weakness could be a bargain-hunting opportunity. And they still maintain their 2025 Bitcoin price target of $200,000.
