KOL artist: BTC 59300 found support and experienced a V-shaped reversal, the probability of short-term fluctuations or rebounds is relatively high, but the overall bearish trend has not yet been broken.

06-25

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BTC touched the first small-level support of 59,300 at the bottom of the entire oscillation range. To be honest, the support at this position is not strong. The next level is the last support of 57,300.

If the price falls below 59,300 and starts to fluctuate between 57,300 and 59,300, then this large-scale fluctuation range can be regarded as a "distribution range";

If the support above 59300 holds, then we still have the "Higher Low" and the overall shock structure is not broken, which means that the bulls still have a chance to rebound;

If 57300 is completely broken, only 51000 or 48000 will have support;

In addition, I am still very anxious about the current market, not because I short all the time this month and have gotten a bargain, but because I have observed that the current market data shows that it is not the on-site funds that are crashing the market, but the off-site funds;

Tomorrow we may see a huge outflow of ETF funds, or Mentougou may compensate users and directly resell them, or the German government may sell them again, etc. In short, this is not the work of on-site funds;

Why? Because the funds in the market, that is, retail and large investors in the crypto, are still struggling to save the market. From the perspective of funding rates, the futures market still maintains a neutral rate under such a sharp drop today, which is very rare! The long-short ratio has not only not dropped, but is still rising. The long-short ratio of BTC on the entire network has reached the highest point of this month, around 1.145, while the long-short ratio of Binance's perpetual contract has reached a record high of 3.28!

This shows that at this critical position, most of the funds in the crypto and on-site funds have bet their own capital and are long with an average leverage of 2 to 3 times. This is a very touching but worrying situation!

Why do I say this? If you have experienced March 12, 2019, you will know why the price of BTC plummeted by 50% in a single day. A big reason is that the long positions are too heavy, and the intervention of off-site forces has led to a short-term liquidity crisis. New demand has become new supply in the process of being consumed, and the selling pressure formed by the liquidated long orders and stop-loss spot exceeded the demand in a short period of time, thus triggering a round of serial liquidations;

That is to say, the 63,000 order was liquidated at 61,000, causing the price to fall to 60,000, and once again triggered the liquidation of the 61,000 long order, and this cycle continues until there is no more long liquidity and off-market selling pressure; So where are we now? Good news! The long-led chain liquidation will not occur, because there is no long liquidity under the entire market, not only no, but also it has been liquidated cleanly!

As for the remaining liquidity, there is only a little bit below 57,300. Therefore, my view on this extreme market is that it may slightly fall below the previous low and reach around 55,000~57,000, but the daily line is likely to recover the long lower shadow and then start to rebound, or get effective support at 59,300, start to fluctuate downward and rebound;

But as I said in the live broadcast tonight, the self-similarity of the bull market structure may be taking effect, and there will still be a weak rebound in the future, with the target around 64,000~65,000;

In short, if you are not short, then don't do it yet. If you have long orders or spot goods, then make sure you can survive this extreme market. If the price can stabilize and rebound in the range of 57,000 to 59,000, then observe the situation of 64,000 to 65,000. Maybe there will still be a turnaround in the market.

After all, as long as there is a higher low, the bullish structure at the macro level has not been destroyed. But if it really hits 55,000 and then rebounds, then facing the Lower Low, there is no need to worry, and you can run away after the rebound;

Finally, I want to say that one or two stop loss blowouts are nothing. There is no need to take a single transaction too seriously. Sometimes, if you are wrong, you are wrong. If you don’t manage the risk well, you can manage it well next time. In this wave of market, I tried to long at 62,800, and it was blown up in the blink of an eye. Now I rely entirely on the emotionless trend strategy to make a profit on the big account, but it is still a loss overall this year. So it is not easy for everyone. Since you have chosen to make a living by trading, you must be prepared for painful failures.

A true warrior is someone who knows that the road to trading is full of dangers, but still chooses to persevere and grow! Let's encourage each other!

Update: A huge positive green candle with a long lower shadow appears on the 15-minute line. It seems that 59,300 has been temporarily supported. The price has received multiple supports on the oversold line of the ASR-VC indicator until a huge volume appears. The bulls can relax and the market should turn to a volatile market in the short term.

Update: After 59300 gained support, the price experienced a V-shaped reversal with reduced volume, indicating that a new range of fluctuations is forming, and there is a certain probability that it will form a convergent triangle, waiting for the opening of the US stock market. Last night's plunge consumed a large amount of supply in a short period of time. The probability of maintaining fluctuations or rebounds in the short term is high, but the overall bearish trend has not been broken.

Sector:

Halving Tokens

Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.

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