Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said: "I don't think there will be a rate cut in 2024, and I will postpone the rate cut to 2025."
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that he expects inflation to remain high for some time. It is not yet the right time to cut interest rates. The basic outlook is that as the policy rate remains unchanged for "some time", the inflation rate will return to 2%. It's cold, but the colder it is, the better time to buy the dips.
On May 24 this year, the SEC officially approved the 19b-4 application documents for Ethereum spot ETFs from eight institutions, allowing institutions to list Ethereum spot ETFs on various exchanges in the United States. However, the applicant institutions cannot start trading until they obtain the required S-1 registration statement approval.
(The S-1 document refers to the registration statement that a company must submit when conducting an initial public offering (IPO) or other forms of securities issuance in accordance with the regulations of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The main purpose of this document is to provide potential investors with comprehensive information such as the company's business, financial status, management team, risk factors, and securities issuance details, so as to help investors make informed investment decisions.)
Simply put, the Ethereum spot ETF has been approved and its listing is a foregone conclusion, but the entire process has not yet been completed and it is only a matter of time before it is opened for trading .
As the second largest cryptocurrency, ETH’s price performance has always lagged behind Bitcoin and Solana. Even though we may be in the middle of a bull market, ETH players are relatively indifferent.
We all know how Ethereum holders have felt in the past few months, watching other ecosystem users revel and crying alone with their full ETH warehouses. But the upcoming launch of the Ethereum spot ETF may reverse this dilemma.
After the Ethereum spot ETF is listed, it will be equivalent to providing a legal and regulated investment channel for Ethereum. Funds from traditional financial institutions and investors can flow into the market in a way that is considered relatively safe, which may have the opportunity to drive up the price of Ethereum.
On the other hand, with regulatory guarantees, coupled with the liquidity and transparency of ETFs, the market’s trust and visibility in Ethereum will be enhanced. In particular, the characteristics of Ethereum itself and on-chain DeFi that can use staking to obtain additional income may further attract more investors who are not satisfied with the traditional market.
It is estimated that in the first five months of the Ethereum spot ETF's listing, capital inflows will be between US$3 billion and US$4.8 billion, showing strong market demand.
and CME’s ETH OI vs. BTC’s current 23%. Comparing these weights to cumulative spot BTC ETF inflows of $13.8 billion gives ETH net inflows ranging between $3.1 billion and $4.8 billion. Our research suggests that a newly launched US ETF would absorb 750,000 to 1,000,000 ETH, equivalent to 0.65-0.85% of ETH’s circulating supply.
JPMorgan Chase, a well-known traditional financial services institution, believes that the Ethereum spot ETF is slightly less attractive than Bitcoin, but there may still be a net inflow of US$3 billion in 2024. However, if the approved version allows staking, this figure may exceed US$6 billion.
However, the flows of ETH and BTC investment tools are in sharp contrast. Driven by the optimistic expectations for the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF in the United States, the global ETH ETP had a net inflow of 16,911 ETH, which was the fourth consecutive week of net inflow. In contrast, BTC ETP had a net outflow of 12,523 BTC last week, which was the third largest weekly outflow so far.
In the past 4 weeks, Ethereum spot ETFs in other regions have had a net inflow of 86,472 ETH, equivalent to $300 million. The flow status of ETH ETP is similar to the performance of BTC ETP in November 2023 (before the US BTC ETF spot was passed), with a monthly net inflow of $1.25 billion.
By comparison, it is shown again that under the best circumstances, the inflow of US Ethereum spot ETF is likely to reach about 10 billion US dollars, which is about 25% of the flow scale of US BTC spot ETF.
