Warning: The Polymarket gaming mechanism mentioned in this article is purely of a research nature. It is not recommended to participate in candidate betting involving election regulations in different countries. Gambling is illegal in most countries.
The first televised debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election ended yesterday (28th). A CNN poll showed that 67% of voters thought Trump performed better, while only 33% thought Biden performed better. Public opinion generally believes that the current incumbent President Biden's performance yesterday can only be described as a "disaster", which fully highlighted his "old age" shortcomings that voters have questioned.
During yesterday's debate, Biden repeatedly stuttered, his voice was hoarse, his speech was slurred, and his tragic performance of frequently correcting his words continued to go viral on social media. Many mainstream media such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal also reported that within the Democratic Party There has been a strong clamor for "replacement" .
The Democratic Party is currently experiencing a "replacement" controversy
Worried that the first debate will lead to the collapse of the presidential election, the New York Times, a liberal newspaper that has always been leaning towards the Democratic Party, published an editorial today with a strong and blunt title: "To serve the country, President Biden should withdraw from the race."
The greatest public service Mr. Biden can do now is to announce that he will not run for re-election. As things stand, the president is taking a reckless gamble. Democratic leaders have the ability to present a clear, convincing and dynamic plan to replace Trump for a second term.
It should be remembered that it was Biden who challenged Trump to this debate, who set the rules and insisted on a date months earlier than any previous general election debate. He knew he needed to address long-standing public concerns about his mental acuity early. Biden now needs to face the fact that he failed his own test.
Many columnists in the New York Times also called on Biden to withdraw from the election in a rare and unanimous voice. Democrats and some donors are also reported to be exploring the possibility of changing the coach before the election.
Polymarket on-chain betting bets on "Biden will not withdraw from the election"
According to the real-time prediction of the decentralized gaming platform Polymarket, Biden's winning rate of withdrawing from the election is only 33%, and the probability of betting that Biden will still qualify as the Democratic presidential candidate is still as high as 74%.
In addition, the platform's 2024 U.S. presidential election real-time prediction page shows that Trump's winning rate is now 63%, while Biden's victory rate has dropped to 22%.
Biden denies dropping out of the race
Facing pressure from Democrats and supporters to withdraw from the race, a spokesman for Biden's campaign said there is currently no discussion about Biden withdrawing from the race. The Financial Times pointed out that Biden himself also emphasized at a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina today, "I am here because I intend to win this state in November."
Biden is trying to address his comments that underwhelmed his performance at Thursday's debate and plans to regain public confidence at the second debate on September 10.
What is obvious is that I know I am not a young person. I don't walk as easily as I used to. My debate isn't as good as it used to be.
But I know what I know, and I know how to tell the truth. I know how to do the job, when you get knocked down, you get back up.
The choice in this election is simple, Trump will destroy our democracy and I will defend it.
His old rival Trump said at a rally yesterday that he did not think Biden would withdraw from the race because Biden already has the best poll performance among all potential Democrats who may compete with him.
