The market continues to fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000, paying off debts in order to reach a new all-time high ahead of schedule
BTC continued to adjust downward in the short term, and on June 24, it once fell below $61,000. Previously, I predicted that the market would enter a short-term clearing phase of weak equilibrium, and the first target of clearing would be Bitcoin miners. As the price of the currency fell, more and more miners sold all their daily output (maximum supply 450 coins/day) and also sold their solid inventory.
For more information, please visit Weibo Tuantuan Finance here .
Unfortunately, liquidation is often accompanied by a certain degree of stampede. The short-term investor cost line (raised to $64,000), which has repeatedly received strong support over the past year, has not been effectively resisted. After falling below $61,000, it is only 8% away from the largest adjustment position of $56,500 since BTC's historical high.
During this period, the news that the German government cleared the confiscated BTC and Mt.Gox repaid investors' BTC was just a little negative boost to the weak market. More importantly, the Federal Reserve continued its previous hawkish remarks and further strengthened the expectation of one interest rate cut this year. The strong Nasdaq index also adjusted, and Nvidia fell more than 5% in a single day.
In a fragile market, every external factor is important. But it can be said for sure that the core reason is that the entire market is still paying off the historical high that came ahead of schedule. Historically, BTC has experienced a long adjustment period before and after the three halvings. The adjustment after the last halving took more than 6 months, and this rapid rise is no exception. The good news is that the market has once again provided investors with a window of opportunity to get on board calmly.
Supply and demand structure
USD stablecoins had an inflow of $708 million last week, more than double the previous week. USDT and USDC had the same inflow, with inflows of $375 million and $333 million respectively. However, it should be noted that the stock of stablecoins on exchanges has actually decreased.
ETFs recorded outflows on all four trading days of the week, with a single-day outflow of more than 100 million and a total outflow of more than 500 million US dollars. This sell-off is one of the reasons for the downward price. One point that needs to be corrected is that institutional holdings account for only about 22% of ETFs, and the main force is hedge funds. While buying spot ETFs, they often open short positions on CME to hedge, which is far from contributing direct momentum to the long-term rise of the market. At the same time, retail investors who hold more than 75% of the positions have a typical "chasing up and selling down" effect.
In short, the upward momentum brought by US ETFs is temporarily sluggish, and it will take a long time to digest.
For CME contracts, open interest is still high, at around $10 billion, down more than 10% from its peak. But trading volume has fallen to around $1.7 billion, close to the low of $1.6 billion in early May.
Is this the turning point?
Now most retail investors have lost confidence, but they don’t know that the market is quietly completing a new round of reorganization.
The proportion of Bitcoin's market value to the altcoins has now reached the suppression line on the monthly line. After the last bull market reached this line, altcoins have experienced big market trends, so the probability of a market trend occurring in July-November is very high. The current price of high-quality altcoins will be at the bottom range in the future.
Ethereum's ETF funds have not entered the market, but confidence is still there. Worst case scenario: If the market continues to fall in the second half of this year and the first quarter of next year, it means that the main force does not even want retail investors to drink the soup. In this case, there is nothing to say, let the dealer always accompany his Bitcoin and Ethereum.
However, I always believe that opportunities are often born during a period of sustained downturn. The sentiment of retail investors and the state of the market will not deceive people. Reversals often occur at this time.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the crypto to explore together. If you have any questions, you can comment or private TTZS6308. All information platforms are Tuanzi Finance .
I plan to accept five more one-on-one classes at the end, but I won’t accept any more. To be honest, I can’t handle too many. After all, my energy is limited.
Currently, there are basically no good opportunities for retail investors to get on board BTC. The focus is to lay out high-quality copycats in the later stage and strive to achieve an overall return of no less than 10 times this year.
